Geoff Ulrich welcome reacders back to the weekly NFL Pick’em Plays on Underdog and PrizePicks article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, last year I put together a five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I would also sometimes include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

This year, I’m changing things up a bit. We’ll still be doing the Underdog section (and a full ticket), but I’ll also be doing entries for PrizePicks. The writeups will be a little shorter but there will be more picks. 

Less boring analysis from me, and more of those sweet, sweet picks, driven by our FantasyLife+ projections and our awesome new Pick’em Lineup Builder—which, once you try it, you will seriously never understand how you got by without it. 

Week 4 recap: 4/5 is not bad, especially if you flexed!

We came really close to hitting another massive ticket last week on our main card from Undercard, but Kyle Pitts (sad song) was not interested in catching passes from Kirk Cousins. Still, the process (Kirk more than passing yards, etc) was correct and if you flex played, the 4/5 ticket still cashed for some very decent profit. 

As always, I loaded the play on Thursday in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season. Keep checking there for more plays as I’ve already loaded this week’s main card plays plus more to take advantage of some early lines. 

Now let’s get to the Week 5 plays …

Underdog Pick’em (5-Way; 20.81x)

I didn’t hit up as many alternate lines as I did the last two weeks, but our main Underdog pick’em card still comes with a stout 20.81x payout and some solid correlation plays. 

Let’s start with Matthew Stafford, the one player whose total I did bump up a bit. Stafford’s regular line is around 230 on Underdog this week but with the Rams' defense fading and the Packers' offense likely to outperform in this spot, it’s not hard to envision Stafford dropping back 35+ time in this spot and going for more than 250+. QBs facing the Packers have averaged 230.5 yards per game (9th most on the season) with Anthony Richardson (a pure rushing QB if there ever was one) the only opposing QB to have thrown for less than 250 against Green Bay this year. 

There are multiple ways we could go about correlating Stafford with one of his receivers, but the thesis of Stafford going over his expected number of dropbacks also correlates well with Kyren Williams rushing less, and that’s the angle I prefer to take. We have Williams projected for 17.5 rush attempts this week, so his Lower on its own is one I’m bullish on including in a lot of tickets this week, but particularly love using it with a Higher on Stafford’s yards. 

For the rest of the card, I’m heading to the Broncos/Raiders game and hoping to take advantage of the Raiders' weak rush defense with the suddenly emerging Javonte Williams. Williams should benefit from the injury to Tyler Badie (out) who left early last week and is also coming off his most productive game of the year, by far (16 carries, 77 yards). 

I understand why people may want to take it slow with Williams, who looked terrible the first couple of weeks, but I’d rather try and get ahead of the curve with the Broncos' lead back, especially with the Raiders having allowed 5.1 yards per carry against (third worst in the league). 

On the flip side of that game, if we like Williams to outperform, that should force the Raiders into more passing situations; an outcome that would be bullish for both Gardner Minshew going for more than his 190.5 passing total, and Jakobi Meyers going for more than his 4.0 reception total. The Raiders also have been completely unable to establish any sort of run game and come into this matchup ranked 32nd in EPA per rush. 

While I was tempted to boost Minshew’s passing totals over 200+ and Meyers up to 5.5 receptions, I do worry that the Broncos may just hold the ball for 65% of this game and keep Minshew from outperforming his total by a wide margin. Still, if you want a bigger payout, the opportunity is there to boost the totals on Williams, Minshew, and Meyers and play all their highers at once. 

PrizePicks (6-Way; 15x)

 

For our PrizePicks card this week, I’m starting with the Monday Night game, which I think offers us a nice opportunity to be bullish on the Saints' rushing attack (5th in EPA per rush) with another solid showing the Chiefs' two main passing cogs in Mahomes and Kelce. 

 

Despite Kamara going for 77+ yards in each of his three starts this season (and generally just looking like an elite back in this revived Klint Kubiak offense), his total this week remains exceedingly low at just 57.5 on PrizePicks (and was down to 55.5 as of writing). We also have Kamara projected for 64 rush yards this week on Fantasy Life, making his yardage total a nice edge to attack. 

On the flip side of this game, it’s correct to expect another decent showing from Travis Kelce, who showed up last week with a 38% target share. 

The Chiefs just don’t have many options left in terms of targets and the Saints have shown weakness against the TE position to begin with, allowing a career game just two weeks ago to Dallas Goedert (11 rec, 170 yards). With Mahomes’ total at just 233.5 (his lowest of the season), correlating the two with More Than’s on both totals makes a lot of sense in this spot. If Kamara is outperforming it should force more dropbacks from the Chiefs who are up against a Saints defense that is 4th in EPA per rush. 

I’m going to keep the theme of being bullish on elite QBs going with our next two plays. Joe Burrow has a total of 252.5 this week and plays a Ravens defense that has allowed 257.5 yards per game thus far (fourth most in the league), and ranks just 21st in EPA per dropback. Burrow’s up to 7th in EPA per play among qualifying QBs on the season and the Bengals' passing game has continued to look more efficient as the season has worn on. 

In terms of correlation, I still think we’re in a bit of a buy-low spot with Tee Higgins, who has just a 52.5 receiving total this week and earned a 32% target share in his second game back against the Panthers. He’s projected for 58 yards on Fantasy Life this week and looks like a great way to double down on this spot for a big day for Burrow, and the Bengals passing game. 

Finally, if you’re looking for a way to complete your six-way ticket (for Flex Friday) then I recommend looking at fading some of Tyler Huntley’s totals this week. His initial pass attempts were released at 27.5, which I locked up immediately, but were dropped down to 25.5. I’ll be dead honest, I still like the Less Than at 25.5 but you could also look to play the Less Than on his 159.5 yardage total as well. 

We have Huntley set at 25 attempts and 159 yards this week, but with the potential for him to get pulled/replaced/injured (given how much he runs), the Lowers are where you want to be on the Dolphins' backup.