Welcome back to the weekly NFL Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, last year I put together a five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I would also sometimes include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

This year, I’m changing things up a bit. We’ll still be doing the Underdog section (and a full ticket), but I’ll also be doing entries for PrizePicks. The writeups will be a little shorter but there will be more picks. 

Less boring analysis from me, and more of those sweet, sweet picks, driven by our FantasyLife+ projections and our awesome new Pick’em Lineup Builder—which, once you try it, you will seriously never understand how you got by without it. 

Week 5 recap: We came pretty close to hitting again, but a few breaks didn’t go our way

Our thesis on the Raiders passing game was correct as Jakobi Meyers easily went over his number, but Antonio Pierce pulling Gardner Minshew killed our correlation. The Packers just gave the Rams too many chances with the ball and aren’t really a great ball-control team, so I’ll take the L on fading Kyren Williams, I guess, although the correlation with Stafford’s Higher (which he also hit) didn’t make it a poorly thought-out play. 

As always, I loaded the play on Thursday in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season. Keep checking there for more plays as I’ve already loaded this week’s main card plays plus more to take advantage of some early lines. 

Now let’s get to the Week 6 plays …

Underdog Pick’em (5-Way; 17.99x)

  1. Jared Goff HIGHER 249.5 passing yards 
  • Projection: 256 yards
  1. Sam LaPorta HIGHER 49.5 receiving yards
  • Projection: 48 yards
  1. Rico Dowdle HIGHER 14.5 receiving yards 
  • Projection: 15 receiving yards

The Fantasy Life Pick’em builder likes the HIGHERs on all three of these players but with such a bullish setup for the Lions' passing game (playing in a dome; weaker opposing defense; off a bye), I like playing for bigger payouts and combining both Goff and LaPorta’s alt lines at 49.5 and 249.5. 

Goff is playing extremely efficient ball of late, and Dallas has allowed some extremely efficient games to mediocre QBs already with Daniel Jones completing 73% of his passes for 281 yards a couple of weeks ago. I don’t expect him to be perfect like he was against Seattle, but if he can average between 8-10 yards per attempt like he did against Arizona, that should be enough for him to go Higher than his alt line of 249.5 (his regular line is at 246.5). 

The matchup with Dallas also looks promising for a breakout game from Sam LaPorta, who is now an extra two weeks removed from his Week 3 ankle injury. LaPorta’s snaps perked back up in Week 4 and he earned a 21% target share in the Lions' defeat of Seattle. 

If we’re looking at a comeback play from Dallas and playing for a higher-scoring, fast-paced game, then I suspect a lot of people will choose to ride with a CeeDee Lamb receiving-yards Higher. 

We do have Lamb projected around 90 yards in the Pick’em builder, but using Rico Dowdle’s receiving Higher is another way to get exposure to Dallas. Detroit has a stout rush defense but its linebackers aren’t as good at defending receivers out of the backfield and are coming off a game where they allowed both of Seattle’s RBs to go for more than 30 yards as a pass catcher. 

  1. Tank Dell HIGHER 59.5 receiving yards
  • Projection: 61
  1. C.J. Stroud HIGHER 249.5 passing yards
  • Projection: 253

I’ll head to New England for the last two parts of this week’s Underdog Pick’em play and target the C.J. Stroud/Tank Dell stack for what I hope will be their first big game together this weekend. 

New England has turned into a pretty traditional pass funnel on defense as they’re 13th in EPA per rush but 23rd in EPA per dropback, and have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt this year, which is the 7th-worst mark in the league. C.J. Stroud may be without Nico Collins this week, but the Texans have solid depth at WR, and Stroud still managed to crack the 300-yard mark against a solid pass defense in Buffalo last week, without Collins in the second half. 

The Texans also have solid WR depth, which includes second-year WR Tank Dell, who did break free for a big play last week, before going silent down the stretch. 

It’s hard to say why Dell’s production has fallen off but with Collins out I suspect we’ll see an expanded route tree in Week 6, similar to what we saw in his rookie season. Regardless, I’m all for trusting our projections in this spot, which suggest that staying bullish on Dell should pay off. 

Full Underdog Card (17.99x): 

PrizePicks (6-Way; 24x)

  1. Deshaun Watson More Than 191.5 passing yards
  • Projection: 187 yards
  1. Amari Cooper More Than 50.5 receiving yards
  • Projection: 48 yards
  1. Saquon Barkley More Than 106.5 rush + rec yards 
  • Projection: 112 yards

I’m playing a bit of a hunch this week and taking a swing with the Browns' passing offense on PrizePicks, who have Deshaun Watson set at 191.5 passing yards this week. Our projections aren’t super bullish on this spot (Dwain 174; Freedman 199), but with a 187 aggregate total, it’s not like they are far off the 192 needed, either. Additionally, this is mostly a play against the Eagles' defense, which just isn’t a good unit. They’re 28th in EPA per dropback and 19th in success rate per dropback. 

I suspect there will be some room for Amari Cooper and Watson to get going in this spot and with their totals at such low numbers, it’s not like we need a game full of efficient play from either to make this work. 

On the other side of this game, I’m expecting big things from coming off the bye for Saquon Barkley, who is facing a Browns defense that has a ton of banged-up players on the D-Line. Cleveland allowed some explosive plays last week to Austin Ekeler (6 carries, 67 yards; 2 receptions for 30 yards) and hasn’t faced a rush offense as good as the Eagles yet. By taking Barkley on the rush/rec line we can also mitigate some game-flow concerns. 

The Browns should be passing more in this game just due to the matchup, but if the Eagles are somehow behind late, then Barkley’s receiving ability could also get us across the finish line. 

  1. Rome Odunze More Than 36.5 receiving yards
  • Projection: 45 yards
  1. D'Andre Swift Less Than 56.5 rushing yards
  • Projection: 54 yards
  1. Travis Etienne More Than 44.5 rushing yards
  • Projection: 44 yards

Let’s head to London for our last three picks and final game stack. Our projections have Rome Odunze set at 45 yards for the week, giving us a nice edge to attack on his 36.5 total, against this weaker Jaguars secondary that just finished allowing 359 yards to Joe Flacco. 

Additionally, we also have this as a good spot to sell on D’Andre Swift, whose 56.5 total looks to be a little too hot this week. Swift is still sharing carries with Roschon Johnson and has benefited from facing weak rush defenses two weeks in a row. Jacksonville is 12th in EPA per rush and feels likely to slow down Swift, who looked horrendous in his first few games as a Bear. 

Combining the Swift and Odzune picks, with a Travis Etienne More Than on rush yards, gives us a nice correlated stack to complete the six-way. Etienne has lost some usage to Tank Bigsby but he’s still the starter, per Doug Pederson, and is still projected for over 10 carries on Fantasy Life this week. The Bears are just 21st in EPA per rush, and with his starting job threatened, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Etienne bounce back this week with a good effort to stifle the Bigsby takeover for at least a week. 

Full PrizePicks Card (24x):