Week 7 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.

I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 7 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades. 

Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.

Top Stack

Houston Texans

Here is how the models at Paydirt view the best QB+2 stacks on the slate:

QB2+ stacks

We have two stacks that are notably above the others in median this week: PHI and HOU. While I love the PHI option here, using Jalen Hurts usually means you are running a QB+1, which has its pros and cons. I prefer the spot with HOU here for a handful of reasons.

First off, the target tree with no Nico Collins is going to be nice and tight and present a lot of upside in closer games. In the first game with no Collins, we saw Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell combine for 55% of the targets and 65% of the air yards, which is an elite rate for a duo. They did this in a game where NE was mostly non-competitive and now get a spot against GB, who can match their firepower.

The game environment for HOU/GB looks like one of the best on the slate. The game total of 47.50 is the fourth-highest while the passing TD combination (based on projections) is the highest at 3.29. When you consider price, target trees, and game environments, I think it’s hard to ignore HOU and even think a full game stack (QB + 2 + 2) is a great way to build for GPPs.

Top Value Plays

RB: Chuba Hubbard

This was a toss-up for me between Hubbard and Tony Pollard as both options are still underpriced for their roles and make for strong foundations at RB. However, Hubbard has some upside that I think is more easily accessible than Pollard and also comes with an easier leverage spot (which we will talk about a bit later).

Regarding role and utilization score, it’s hard to beat Hubbard for the price, as his seasonal score sits at 7.98 and he continues to push for 61% of the rush attempts and 83% of the inside-the-five attempts for CAR. His expected fantasy points are really what pushes him over the top for me, as his 18.24 exPPR points per game are up there with guys like Kenneth Walker (18.93) and above Jahmyr Gibbs (16.25). He’s a great play that is about $1k underpriced.

WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster

It’s pretty incredible that JuJu nuked a primetime game (8/8/125+ and a TD), had a full bye week, and DraftKings still didn’t price him up. He is just $4k and is in an obviously valuable role with the Chiefs sans the Rashee Rice injury. His median projection over at Paydirt is 11.80 with a ceiling of 24.91 which sits him above guys like Michael Pittman and teammate Xavier Worthy, who are both $2,000 more expensive. He’s just an obvious plug-and-play and even at 25%+ projected ownership, a hard one to fade.

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Oct 13, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (85) is tackled by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay Jr. (2) and safety Reed Blankenship (32) during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

TE: David Njoku

On the back of the Amari Cooper trade, we are going to get a lot of targets left over, and a good portion of those are likely to fall into the hands of Njoku. In week 5 he only managed a 4% target share but he was obviously still ramping up based on the 54% route participation. In week 6 that route participation jumped to 67% while the target share exploded to 32%, though it’s worth mentioning the aDOT is disgustingly low at just 3.0. We should expect that target share to stay in the 25%+ range with no Amari to siphon workload, and that makes Njoku way too cheap.

He should be in the $5,500+ range with the expected workload, so let’s take advantage of the price discount and deploy him in GPPs.

Top GPP Plays

RB: Brian Robinson Jr.

I alluded to it earlier, but I think that Brian Robinson is pretty terrific leverage off of Hubbard in the same game environment. I kind of did a double take at the game total here as WAS/CAR is sitting at 52.5 at the time of writing, the highest on the slate! With that high a total we should expect the ball to move and touchdowns aplenty, and that means we should be looking for high upside options at lower ownership. Robinson fits that bill, as he has one of the better short down and distance roles in the league (82% of the total opportunities) and a strong redzone presence.

The icing on the cake is CAR is the best matchup in the league for RBs, giving up 10.7 fantasy points above average, 1.7 rushing TDs per game, and 114.7 rushing yards per contest. Just an awesome spot for an RB who has shown upside.

WR: A.J. Brown

All A.J. Brown does is score fantasy points, but people don’t want to roster him? Okay, that’s fine, I think we should be a bit different with that approach. In the two games that he has played this year, AJB has a 33%/49% and a 38%/60% targets/air yards split. His utilization score on the season is a 9.0 and his baselines are basically a mirror to Justin Jefferson but with better endzone targets. As noted above, the PHI stacks are strong because of the Hurts/Brown combo, but Brown by himself makes for one of the best low-owned WR plays on the entire slate. You can build a very strong lineup with just A.J. Brown in place of Justin Jefferson, and I would suggest making that 1v1 in anything outside of MIN stacks.

TE: Brock Bowers

A very similar situation to David Njoku, we should expect a nice bump in production for Bowers with the trade of Davante Adams. However, unlike Njoku, Bowers is already a very productive fantasy option who should now reach the top overall spot in TE rankings. His target share when Adams is not on the field jumps up to the 32-35% range, a 10% increase on his overall rate, and that should push up his fantasy average from 13.8 PPR points per game to the 16+ range. The QB play is going to be inconsistent, but with no Adams we should be buying Bowers whenever possible as his ceiling will be higher than any TE/WR in the $5-6k range. 

Top Fade

The main name that appears overvalued this week, based on his projections and ownership, is Darnell Mooney. Here are the results from the Pivot Finder for a range of +/-$500 and a projection of +/-3 points:

Pivot finder

Mooney has been relatively productive with ATL this year. His utilization score of 6.8 is serviceable, and he is pulling in 23% of the targets and 34% of the air yards. All of that said, his role is pretty easily replicable on this slate for the price you have to pay.

In fact, guys who are very similar to Mooney are going way undervalued, even in the same game! Jaxon Smith-Njigba for instance is $300 more expensive and projects right there with Mooney for around a quarter of the ownership. In another high-upside game environment, we have Jameson Williams at $6,000 projected at just 2% ownership. 

There’s really no reason to play Darnell Mooney at ownership. Sure, include him in your ATL stacks or game stacks, but when looking to fill in a one-off he should be on a short list of players to avoid in SE and limit in MME portfolios.