Week 9 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 9 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top NFL DFS Stack For Week 9
Dallas Cowboys
Here is how the models at Paydirt view the best QB+2 stacks on the slate:
PHI stacks take up the top overall options on the slate, and I think that is justified, but when you break down the volume and passing baselines I want to give a slight lean toward DAL, who also has two stack combos in the top 5.
Dak Prescott has had some of the best passing volume in the league this year. The Cowboys are averaging 42 passing plays per game and 63 plays per game, and while that hasn’t led to incredible PPR outputs, it does speak to a great floor. When you pair that with a matchup with ATL, who has one of the fastest paces in the league (+11.9% PPMOE), you get a matchup that can unlock the Cowboys' upside.
This spot has all the makings of the best game environment on the slate, and I think we should take advantage of it with Dak/CeeDee combos.
NFL DFS Value Plays This Week
RB: Chase Brown
Brown is going to be an easy-button play at RB this week with Zack Moss doubtful to play. Over the last four weeks, we have seen Brown average 57% of the rushing attempts for CIN while Moss has handled just 35%, with Brown having surpassed 60% in back-to-back weeks. This was with Moss taking 55% of the snaps, meaning that his absence should unlock the full upside of Brown in this offense. The matchup is really good, too, with the Raiders giving up 4.2 PPR points above average and 102 yards per game to opposing RBs. He’s going to be popular, but that’s fine because at $5,900 on DraftKings, he slots in as one of the best values on the slate.
WR: Cedric Tillman
I don’t usually like to write up a player two weeks in a row, but Tillman necessitates it. After going off last week as the best value on the slate at $3,400, he got just a marginal increase up to $4,300. His Median/Ceiling combo is better this week at 13.48/28.34, slotting him between Ladd McConkey ($5,600) and Jaylen Waddle ($5,500), showing that he is at least $1,000 underpriced. He has posted a 24% target share two weeks in a row along with around 35% of the air yards, which puts him firmly in expectation of around 15 fantasy points per game. He’s a cash game staple and an easy play in GPPs even at ownership.
Oct 27, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman (19) and quarterback Jameis Winston (5) celebrate after Tillman caught a touchdown from Winston during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
TE: Evan Engram
With a 27% 4x rate in the Paydirt models, Engram is expensive but clearly not expensive enough. At $5,300 it may seem odd to consider him a top value, but that’s only if you think about him in regards to TEs and not TE/WR/RBs. With a median projection of 15.50 he slots in between James Conner ($6,600) and Terry McLaurin ($7,000), which puts in perspective just how valuable he is as a flex option and not just a TE.
Lots of people are apprehensive to consider a TE in the flex, but that is a mistake, and if you have the opportunity to use a player who is nearly $1,500 underpriced for their projection, it should not matter what position that player slots into. Look to use Engram either as a regular TE or as a flex play in Week 9.
NFL DFS GPP Plays For Week 9
RB: Alvin Kamara
What if I told you that you could play the RB with the best usage and utilization score in the league while also getting them in the best possible matchup for upside? Well, Kamara has a utilization score of 9.3 (.4 points higher than any other RB) and gets a matchup with Carolina who is allowing 8.2 PPR points and 37.8 rushing yards above average to opposing RBs. You couldn’t ask for a better spot here and you could not ask for better usage. Granted, I do believe it will be hard to get the salary for Kamara this week, but I think that should be a priority. Expect 25+ fantasy points from him this week.
WR: Ja’Marr Chase
There is going to be a lot of focus on Chase Brown this week, and that is more than justified. But don’t forget that Tee Higgins is out as well, and that opens up the target share for Chase to go full nuke. Chase has strong baselines this year with a targets/air yards split of 24/28%, but those numbers jump to around 30/35% with no Higgins. Considering he is already averaging 19.8 PPR points per game this year with Higgins active, we should expect 20+ fantasy points in week 9. The main reason I like Chase this week, though, is some direct leverage against Chase Brown, which gives you some nice leverage on the field if it is Chase who scores all the touchdowns instead of Brown. He’s expensive but makes for an awesome GPP option thanks to his upside and leverage.
TE: Brock Bowers
Another expensive TE? You betcha. Bowers projects incredibly well even for his lofty price tag. This is a similar reason to Engram up above, where he is priced relative to other TEs, but when you compare him to WR/RBs he ends up looking like an extremely strong play. His Median/Ceiling projection is 17.40/37.76 and his 20+ rate, the percentage of times he breaks the 20 PPR point range in the simulations, is 41.80%! He has hit a 30%+ target share in three of the last five weeks, in all of which he had a 9.0+ utilization score, and the Raiders project to be in a trailing game script once again. Bowers makes for one of my favorite GPP plays on the week and is a great pairing with Evan Engram for a unique build pattern.
Top Fade(s) In Week 9
I don’t necessarily feel that I should need to use the Pivot Finder to make this point, but Ray-Ray McCloud III should not be someone you use your ownership allotment on. Here are the results looking at all players within $500 and 3 median points:
I could barely fit all of them in the screenshot. The editors here at Fantasy Life might make me reformat this because it is hard to read, but I want to point out it is hard to read because that is how many options you can pivot to off of McCloud. There are even defenses in this screenshot because he projects so badly.
Do not play a 15% owned Ray-Ray McCloud III this week. If that ownership holds up he will be by far the worst option on the board.
