Welcome back to the weekly NFL Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, last year I put together a five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I would also sometimes include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

This year, I’m changing things up a bit. We’ll still be doing the Underdog section (and a full ticket), but I’ll also be doing entries for PrizePicks. The writeups will be a little shorter, but there will be more picks. 

Less boring analysis from me, and more of those sweet, sweet picks, driven by our FantasyLife+ projections and our awesome new Pick’em Lineup Builder—which, once you try it, you will seriously never understand how you got by without it. 

Week 8 recap: Rome burned, but not quite enough to ship the alternate line. 

 

The PrizePicks four-way card I put up got three selections bang on. However, the last leg and the one alternate line I used (Rome Odunze) came up short. If you hedged a bit and used Odunze’s regular line in some lineups this still ended up being a winning ticket, but the original was 10 yards short of the W.  

As always, I loaded up this week’s plays on Thursday in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season. Keep checking there for more plays as I’ve already loaded this week’s main card plays plus more to take advantage of some early lines. 

Now let’s get to the Week 8 plays.

Underdog Pick’em (5-Way; 16.11x)

This week’s Underdog card is a 5-way, one-game ticket that is built around how I see this Cardinals/Bears matchup playing out. Arizona isn’t the greatest run defense but it is allowing only 4.2 ypc at home this season, and it is far worse against the pass, where it ranks dead last in success rate. 

The Cardinals' penchant for allowing big plays through the air should make this a great spot for Rome Odunze, who, despite seeing low targets all season, has still managed to clear 40 yards in three straight starts. Odunze’s prop didn’t move much this week, despite the streak, and we have him projected for 43.0 yards on Fantasy Life giving us a solid enough edge to attack on his Higher. 

If we are correct about the Bears getting some big plays through the air in this game that should also lead to a couple of other outcomes we can hone in on. 

First, Caleb Williams should be far more productive as a passer than last week when he threw for just 131 yards vs. Washington. QBs against Arizona are averaging 235 yards passing per game overall, and 273.7 yards against them over the last three weeks. Second, if Williams is successful in completing more big plays downfield, that should lead to fewer chances for D’Andre Swift, whom we have projected for 15.3 rush attempts. 

Swift has run well of late, and I’m loath to fade his yardage prop in case he busts out a 50+-yard again. However, from a volume perspective, he’s likely to regress in usage—especially if Williams is completing more passes. Either way, his Lower correlates well with our two passing Highers on Williams and Odunze making it one I like adding. 

On the Cardinals' side, I’m keeping things relatively simple and playing the matchup. The Bears have allowed the seventh-fewest catches to opposing WRs and allow just 6.2 yards per attempt. They don’t rank out nearly as well against opposing TEs and over the last two weeks have allowed 19 receptions and 210 yards (11.0 yards per reception) to the position. 

I don’t want to use the “if Zach Ertz can go for 77 yards against this defense” argument, but McBride (56.0 yard projection on FL) is a more potent receiver at this point in his career than Ertz. He’s also just been more reliable than Harrison, who has had an on-again, off-again relationship with Kyler Murray this season, and will likely be tailed this week by a very solid corner in Jaylen Johnson. 

I’m fine fading Harrison (who has been under 50 yards in four of seven games this season) and riding the Higher on McBride, who has a 27% target share on the season entering Week 9. Murray and the Cardinals seem more likely to keep things simple against an elite defense, which should mean more short passes to McBride and less chances for Harrison to repeat his Week 8 breakout. 

 

PrizePicks (3-Way; 5x)

 

Baltimore is third in the league in run rate and facing off against a Broncos defense this week that is first in EPA per dropback, but only 11th in EPA per rush. That should lead to a more methodical approach, where the Ravens feature both Derrick Henry and Justice Hill more often, and perhaps try and rely less on the playmaking of Lamar Jackson, who did pop up on the injury report this week with minor ailments but is expected to play. 

Matchup aside, this is also a Broncos offense that is very raw and could have issues moving the ball. Baltimore does have a weaker secondary but is 5th in sacks per game and 5th in EPA per rush. If Denver’s offense regresses a little it would shock no one and would help keep Jackson’s pass attempts to a limited amount. 

A slower day for Jackson would also hurt the output of a pass catcher like Mark Andrews, who has gone under 42.0 yards receiving the last two games despite being in great game environments. 

Andrews still shares snaps and targets with Isaiah Likely, and when you factor in the elite Denver pass defense, it’s not hard to imagine him coming back to earth after a few solid games in this spot. 

We have Jackson projected for 26.0 attempts and Andrews at 31.0 yards this week, so correlating their Less-Than marks makes for a great start to making lineups if you’re targeting this game. 

On the flip side, the Ravens' pass-funnel defense makes this a time to be bullish on rookie WR Devaughn Vele, who is the kind of bigger receiver that has given their secondary issues this season. The 6-foot-5 Vele again got some complimentary words from his head coach this week and has been very efficient with his targets, converting 16 of the 20 passes thrown his way thus far into catches. 

Unless the Ravens implode with multiple turnovers, or Denver gets big special teams plays, I see Vele having a great shot at approaching 5-7 targets and potentially blowing up a little in this matchup. His projection on Fantasy Life is sitting at 30.0 yards this week, which makes his more than a great comeback play from all angles to finish off this 3-way correlated lineup. 

 

 

PrizePicks (6-Way; 15x)

If you’re interested in using the Ravens/Broncos 3-way play from above in a larger ticket I also created a second PrizePicks lineup this week for a little bonus. 

Looking at this Cleveland/Chargers game I think there is significant reason to think we see a slower pace match play out with the Browns throwing less, but perhaps having more success with Nick Chubb running the ball—though running less than they did last week—against a Chargers defense that has allowed 5.77 ypc against over their last two games to opposing RBs. 

Chubb having success on the ground would likely result in fewer dropbacks and attempts for Jameis Winston, which in turn would affect the output of his receivers. There is also the fact the Chargers are also just a slow-paced team, that excels in sucking the life out of games, as no QB has thrown the ball more than 33 times against them this season. 

Correlating Chubb’s more than with Winston/Njoku’s Less Than’s, also falls nicely in line with our projections, as we have Winston projected for 35.0 attempts and Njoku projected for 5.1 receptions. 

With them all being on the same team, you can’t use them to create lineups on their own, but attaching the three-way Browns correlation to our three-way form above gets us to a 15x payout. That’s solid considering how easily these plays fall in line with each other, and the fact we’re in line with our projections on every play.