2023 NFL Draft Tracker. Every pick & analysis from Round 1.

The 2023 NFL Draft is alive and booming! The Fantasy Life crew is grinding along and providing up-to-the-minute analysis on every fantasy-relevant player picked. 

Be sure to refresh this live tracker throughout the evening for constant updates.

1.01: Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

• 5’10, 204lbs, 21 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

2023 fantasy expectations

The problem with expecting too much from Young in year one is the porous fantasy track record of first-year signal-callers – especially those without high-end rushing upside. Overall, just seven rookie QBs have posted top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis over the past 10 years, and six of them averaged at least 25 rushing yards per game in college (Young’s average: 4.8).

Throw in a rather mediocre group of skill-position players plus PFF’s reigning 15th-ranked offensive line, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Young joins recent No. 1 overall picks Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence as middling year-one fantasy assets.

Way-too-early 2023 rank: QB21

Landing spot grade: C

Good news: Young will start from day one. Bad news: His top two pass-game options are D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen.

While head coach Frank Reich deserves credit for his QB development days in Philadelphia, he didn’t exactly string together one fantasy-friendly signal-caller after another during his time in Indianapolis.

This is objectively a bottom-10 (to be nice) group of pass-catchers inside of the league’s reigning 20th-ranked scoring offense. It’d make sense if things are rocky in year one – as is often the case for QBs drafted to teams who were bad enough to pick them highly in the first place.

Strengths

Best pure passer in the class

Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave Young a 93.0 passer grade, which places him at the top of the rankings among 169 FBS QBs with at least 250 dropbacks over the last two seasons. Pretty, pretty, pretty good

Doesn’t just survive: The man thrives under pressure

Among the 146 QBs who registered at least 100 dropbacks under pressure, Young ranked sixth in passing grade on his 370 qualified dropbacks. He delivered an eye-popping 26 TDs and only six INTs under duress, and his 8.4 YPA was sterling in comparison to the 6.1 YPA average of his peers.

Out of structure mixtape is elite

While some will want to dismiss Young in this department due to his smaller stature and lack of rushing production when scrambling, he is the best college passer during scramble drills with 11 TD passes and only three INTs over the past two years.

Question marks

Pint-sized QB

Alabama listed Young at 194 lbs., but he was able to weigh in at 204 lbs. at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis. Per NFL.com, no QB under 207 lbs. has been drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2003.

Young has addressed this concern himself and confirmed that he can’t grow. Too bad!

Meh rushing upside

Young barely had more rushing yards (162) than carries (139), which is still pretty wild even after again realizing that college sacks count toward rushing production.

Six of seven top-12 fantasy rookie QBs over the last decade averaged at least 25 rushing yards per game in college. Young will need to be ultra-efficient through the air inside of a rather porous offensive environment to achieve high-end success in fantasy land this season.

1.02: Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

• 6’3, 214lbs, 21 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

2023 fantasy expectations

Stroud finds himself in a rather rough day-one position inside of a Texans offense with little proven firepower other than rising second-year RB Dameon Pierce.

Similar to No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, Stroud simply doesn’t profile as the sort of dual-threat rookie capable of providing a usable rushing floor while developing in the passing game. Overall, Stroud had more rushing yards in his first and last games (82) than the 24 in between (54). The man literally said himself that his job is to throw the ball, not run.

A consensus bottom-five offensive environment without anything close to a consistent rushing floor will likely lead to rough returns for Stroud in fantasy land for 2023.

Way-too-early 2023 rank: QB24

Landing spot grade: D

Stroud’s top-three pass-game options at the moment: Robert Woods, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Things could change should the Texans utilize their additional draft capital at WR and TE, but even then it’d be tough to expect too much out of the rookies.

The Texans “earned” the No. 2 overall pick for a reason. This is hardly a roster that was simply one good QB away from lighting up scoreboards.

Strengths

Flawless from clean pockets

Stroud is this draft class's most accurate passer when throwing from a clean pocket. When not under pressure, Stroud picked defenses apart: He had a 71.7% completion rate, 35 passing TDs and 93.4 PFF grade when playing from a clean pocket in 2022.

Yes, Stroud had plenty of talent surrounding him during his time in Columbus. Also yes, his ball-placement ability was consistently unreal.

Deep ball is b-e-a-utiful

Stroud has the prototypical size for a QB and there is no throw that he can’t make. Overall, Stroud averaged 10 yards per attempt in 2022, with 1,082 of his 4,435 passing yards coming on deep passes (20-plus yards downfield).

While many college QBs have passing stats inflated by the screen game, only 224 of Stroud's passing yards came from screens, ranking just 109th most in the country.

The Georgia game

The two-time Heisman finalist diced up the best defense college football had to offer by consistently dealing with pressure and making big-time plays out of structure.

Is that something you might be interested in?

Question marks

Offense was littered with 1st-round talent

Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. were Stroud’s top-four targets during his time in Columbus. Hell, Emeka Egbuka could also feasibly be a Day 1 pick this time next year as well.

The Ohio State offensive line was also among the nation’s best in terms of pure pass blocking. There were very few, if any, Saturdays where Stroud wasn’t playing for the more talented team.

Didn’t consistently handle pressure well

Stroud completed just 41.3% of his passes when under pressure. While he has the athleticism to evade defenders, he rarely used it to buy time outside of the pocket other than in his performance against Georgia.

Stroud provided to be capable of feeling and managing pressure in that game, but it's definitely still an area of improvement for him as a prospect.

As for the much-discussed S2 test score: It’s not even clear which reported numbers are accurate. 

Never made a habit of running

There are examples of Stroud making some rather great things happen with his legs.

Whether it was the rainy Northwestern game, big-time scrambles vs. Georgia, or the very first TD of his career: Stroud can make defenses pay with his legs when left unaccounted for.

And yet, Stroud had more rushing yards in his first and last games (82) than the 24 in between (54). The man literally said himself that his job is to throw the ball, not run.

1.03: Houston Texans (via Arizona Cardinals): Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

1.04: Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

• 6’4, 244lbs, 20 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

2023 fantasy expectations

Will Levis reportedly earned the stamp of approval from the Manning family, but Richardson gets the nod and will almost assuredly be the Colts’ seventh different Week 1 QB in as many years.

Yes, Richardson’s inconsistent collegiate career makes it tough to be overly optimistic about his Day 1 readiness at the next level. Also yes, his combination of ridiculous mobility and high-end arm talent will force defenses to account for every square inch of the field for better and worse.

Richardson has the makings of a better fantasy than real-life signal-caller … if only he was entering an offense with more capable pass-game weapons around him. Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce aren’t bad, but they also aren’t exactly going to be ranked near the top of any top-two WR rankings. Volume could also be a problem in an offense expected to feed Jonathan Taylor all the touches he can handle.

Way-too-early 2023 rank: QB15

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Landing spot grade: B-

This grade could move up a bit should the Colts' offensive line rebound after a rough 2022 campaign. Still, there’s not much-proven talent at WR or TE behind Michael Pittman, who hasn’t exactly established himself as an elite No. 1 WR in his own right.

Perhaps rising second-year talents Alex Pierce and Jelani Woods take major leaps; it’s still hardly a guarantee. Levis joins the draft’s top-two QBs as someone not exactly landing in the world’s most-explosive offense, which makes sense considering where they were picking in the first place. 

Strengths

Most athletic QB … ever

The Florida product scored a perfect 10 RAS (relative athletic score) after showing up to the combine at 6’4, 244 lbs, he set the record for both the broad and vertical jumps and also clocked a blazing 4.44 forty-yard dash.

Richardson nicknamed himself “Cam Jackson” in the 11th grade. "Just trying to make big plays, just like Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson.” The fact this is not an egregious nickname is all you need to know.

Arm strength on par with Uncle Rico

Richardson has a cannon for an arm; there isn't a throw he can’t make. While his rushing ability is a huge strength, he doesn't rely on it. He is able to sense pressure, with a strong feel for the pocket, while also keeping his eyes downfield.

Richardson has flashed pinpoint accuracy when he has his feet underneath him but needs to work on the consistency of his footwork.

Fantasy-friendly rushing upside will be elite from day one

Richardson’s average of 50.7 rushing yards per game in college is elite and earned him top-three treatment in Fantasy Life’s rushing QB tier list with Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields.

Don’t underestimate Richardon’s ability to rise up the fantasy ranks in a hurry if/when a starting opportunity is thrown his way.

Question marks

Lacks much experience, you know, playing QB

Started his high school career playing WR and was only able to play six games as a senior before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Richardson only wound up starting 13 games in college.

It’s not fair to call him a complete project, but more reps are certainly needed.

Accuracy concerns are well-documented and relevant

Whether you want to trust anonymous scouts, advanced analytics, or simply Richardson’s mediocre 54.7% raw completion percentage at Florida: There are warranted concerns about his ability to improve ball placement and overall consistency, particularly in the underneath and intermediate areas of the field.

1.05: Seattle Seahawks: Devon Witherspoon, DB, Illinois

1.06: Arizona Cardinals (via Detroit Lions): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

1.07: Las Vegas Raiders: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

1.08: Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

• 5’11, 215lbs, 21 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

2023 fantasy expectations

Absurdly talented prospect with the three-down ability and the sort of high-end draft capital that warrants an immediate workhorse role: Is that something you might be interested in?

First-round RBs aren’t drafted this high to do anything other than handle the rock.

While Robinson might not be in the league’s highest-scoring offense, you might not need more than one hand to count the number of RBs with a larger workload. The below rank is giving some credit to Tyler Allgeier and/or Cordarrelle Patterson staying involved; it’s not crazy to rank the rookie as a top-three option from day one.

Way-too-early 2023 rank: RB5

Landing spot grade: A-

A more pass-happy offense would have been nice considering how much more targets are worth than carries in full-PPR scoring, but the fact this is the reigning No. 1 most run-heavy offense makes up for things.

The Falcons’ highly-paid and badass offensive line only makes matters sweeter. The only reason why this isn’t an A is because of the Falcons’ middling scoring upside, although a Year 2 leap from Desmond Ridder could solve that problem in a hurry.

Strengths

Generational prospect (seriously)

The 2022 All-American and Doak Walker Award winner finished fourth all-time in rushing at Texas, sandwiched between future Hall of Famer Jamaal Charles and current Hall of Famer Earl Campbell.

Robinson's production at Texas was due to a rare combination of size and speed, one that dreams are made of for RBs. But Robinson is more than just an elite athlete. On top of his superb acceleration and top-end speed, Robinson has excellent vision and contact balance.

As a result, Robinson can run through arm tackles, and he can make defenders miss in the open field, consistently showing the ability to stack moves. Per PFF, his 104 missed tackles forced last season led all college RBs, and 1,071 of Robinson's 1,575 rushing yards came after contact.

First-round draft capital

32 rookie RBs have posted top-24 PPR per-game production over the past 10 years (min. 8 games). 25 of 32 (78%) were selected inside the first three rounds. 10 of the 12 first-round RBs drafted since 2015 racked up 197-plus touches in their debut campaign.
 

The Falcons didn’t draft Robinson to do anything other than feed him the rock.

The man can catch, too

In addition to being an outstanding runner, Robinson possesses elite traits as a pass-catcher. The three-down RB has a developed route tree, soft hands and big play ability, so he can play across all three downs and never needs to come off the field.

Robinson would play 100% of the offense’s snaps every week if God turned off injuries and stamina.

Question marks

Investment too high?

Even this is a reach.

A consensus top-five overall talent in the draft, the only risk on Robinson is the amount of investment at a position that has historically been more capably filled by late-round flyers than any other group. Overall, there have been nearly twice as many top-24 fantasy rookie RBs (32) than WR and top-12 QB plus TE combined (18).

Of course, this isn’t a problem for Robinson or his fantasy managers.

1.09: Philadelphia Eagles (via Chicago Bears): Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia

1.10: Chicago Bears (via Philadelphia Eagles): Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

1.11: Tennessee Titans: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

1.12: Detroit Lions (via Houston Texans): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

• 5’9, 199lbs, 21 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

2023 fantasy expectations

Well, that escalated quickly.

Gibbs profiles as an explosive pass-catching phenom capable of racking up fantasy production in a hurry in full-PPR scoring … but RB was seemingly the least of the Lions’ worries after spending big on David Montgomery this off-season and still having a former second-round pick in D’Andre Swift.

Obviously, Gibbs now profiles as the lead back thanks to this absurd draft capital; just realize the Lions could seemingly continue to utilize a three-RB backfield. A 50/50 split between Montgomery and Gibbs with Swift out of the picture could preserve some semblance of RB2 upside for both; that’s just not the ceiling you’d hope for from the No. 12 overall pick.

This Lions offense remains painfully low on proven pass-catchers outside of the Sun God, so Gonna could be asked to handle a large receiving role early. He’ll need to do so in order to make up for an expected lack of early-down work.

Way-too-early 2023 rank: RB22

Landing spot grade: B+

This is a tough one because of the presence of Swift, but things could stabilize quickly if he’s simply kicked to the curb.

Workload questions aside, the Lions boast a badass offensive line and scored the fifth-most points in the NFL last season. The lack of mobility from Jared Goff could lead to plenty of fantasy-friendly check-downs — Gibbs is plenty capable of making all sorts of big plays in Detroit as long as they feed him the rock to a higher degree than we saw from Swift in past years. 

Strengths

Gibbs is FAST fast

Gibbs resolved any questions about his speed at the NFL Combine. After running a 4.36 40-yard dash, his athletic score matches the tape.

He consistently displayed his patience and ability to process running angles to create explosives for Alabama. Of Gibbs’s 850 rushing yards in 2022, 466 came on attempts generating more than 15+ yards on the play.

Receiving ability comes easy

Gibbs is a nightmare for defenders in open space. He can shift gears without notice, creating highlight reels to watch on repeat.

He’s hard to miss when compared to his peers.

Gibbs had the team's third-highest targets per route run in 2022 (0.21). Against the other RBs in the class, he’s tied for first, and his efficiency as a receiver commanded more looks. Only Kenny McIntosh (2.42) has more yards per route run (YPRR) than Gibbs at 1.62. And with a positive aDOT (1.3), it’s safe to assume Gibbs has some route running to his game.

First-round draft capital

32 rookie RBs have posted top-24 PPR per-game production over the past 10 years (min. 8 games). 25 of 32 (78%) were selected inside the first three rounds. 10 of the 12 first-round RBs drafted since 2015 racked up 197-plus touches in their debut campaign.

The Lions didn’t draft Gibbs to do anything other than feed him the rock.

Question marks

Would have been a lot cooler if he weighed one more pound

Uncreative coaches or GMs might have a tough time slotting Gibbs into their offense due to his size.

At 5’9” and 199 lbs., questions about his pass-blocking or if he can churn out extra yards will come up over the next month. And Gibbs will have a tough time answering them.

Mediocre advanced one-on-one stats

Gibbs fell into the bottom half in a couple of key metrics in a two-year sample or RBs

His inability to fight through first contact wasn’t a constant issue, but you can find some plays he’d want back.

Of course, stats like yards after contact (YAC) per attempt and forced missed tackle rate doesn’t correlate to fantasy success as much as his plus receiving metrics do. Here’s to hoping Gibbs’ coaches at the next level will aid in his development to work through arm tackles and pick up those critical 1-2 extra yards

1.13: Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets): Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

1.14: Pittsburgh Steelers (via New England Patriots): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

1.15: New York Jets (via Green Bay Packers): Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State

1.16: Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, DB, Mississippi State

1.17: New England Patriots (via Pittsburgh Steelers): Christian Gonzalez, DB, Oregon

1.18: Detroit Lions: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa

1.19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pitt

1.20: Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

• 6’0, 196lbs, 21 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

Landing spot grade: B

Seattle needed a third pass-catcher but volume may be a concern. The Seahawks were top 10 in pass rate over expectation but things slowed down once they got into scoring position. Plus, Smith-Njigba will be competing against one of the best WR duos in the league for looks. Tyler Lockett still boasts high efficiency while DK Metcalf continues to look like a man amongst boys. JSN will work as the WR3 with more value likely coming in Year 2 than his rookie campaign.

2023 fantasy expectations

JSN’s ability to play on the perimeter and out of the slot sets him up for immediate rotation with Tyler Lockett in Week 1. Plus, Seattle operated with three WRs on the field on 63.4% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks. The only concern will be once they get into the red zone. Pete Carroll still likes to pound the rock once they get into scoring position and DK Metcalf led the team in looks once they get inside the 20-yard line. Smith-Njigba will need to recreate some of his YAC-ability to have top-24 value in 2023.

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Strengths

Earned targets inside an absolutely loaded offense

As a sophomore in 2021, Smith-Njigba garnered a 23% target share for the Buckeyes. While 23% doesn’t seem significant without context, it takes on new meaning once considering his target competition: Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave – both first-round NFL selections.

Plus, it was his age-19 season. The scouting community consistently lauds Smith-Njigba for his ability to uncover in the middle of the field and make the tough catches for his QB.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a healthy version of Smith-Njigba; just realize he produced absurd 15-240-1, 9-139-1, 10-105-1, 11-127-0 and 15-347-3 receiving lines the last five games in which injuries weren’t a factor.

Breeds explosive plays

There are some concerns about Smith-Njigba’s top-end speed in scouting circles, which the film supports. He doesn’t show the next gear to pull away from secondary defenders and can get caught from behind. However, he hasn’t had a problem creating big plays.

JSN was electric with the ball in his hands in 2021, with a mind-bending 8.8 YAC. The average YAC for a player with his aDOT is 4.6, which he almost doubled. Over his career at Ohio State, he delivered a 15-plus yard reception on 34% of his targets, well above the 22% average.

Posted the best bowl-game performance … ever

Yes, Utah was weak at CB and had to resort to lining up an RB against the 2023 draft’s consensus No. 1 WR.

Also yes, JSN dominated to the tune of a 15-347-3 line in the granddaddy of them all – good for the all-time bowl record for receiving yards.

And he looked good doing it.

Question marks

One-year wonder of sorts

Nearly all of the data referenced is from 2021. That is because Smith-Njigba suffered an injury in early 2022 that limited him to only 40 routes in three games.

Having a larger sample would be ideal because it isn’t uncommon for sophomore breakouts to regress in their junior season.

Of course, JSN was a former five-star recruit with high expectations from the moment he stepped on campus. His sterling pro-day speed should ease concerns about any lingering issues from 2022’s unfortunate hamstring injury.

1.21: Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU

• 6’3, 208lbs, 21 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

Landing spot grade: B+

The Chargers have sorely needed a third wide receiver. Not just to add a deep threat but to add youth to an aging pass-catching corps. Keenan Allen is already 31 and Mike Williams isn’t far behind at 28. Johnston needs to develop as a receiver, but with a technician at his side, the TCU product will become a complete receiver over time.

2023 fantasy expectations

Volume won’t be an issue for Johnston as a rookie. The Chargers were fifth in pass rate over expected and the ancillary receivers (e.g., Joshua Palmer, Michael Bandy, etc.) couldn’t crack the Top 100 ranks in YPRR. Johnston’s burst and long speed, on top of his frame, will give LA a much-needed boost to their passing game.

Strengths

Big-bodied WR in a class full of mickey mouse sized talents

Johnson is one of the few top WRs in this class tipping the scales at over 200 pounds and boasts the sort of long limbs that make his catch radius akin to throwing the football to an elephant (sports science used to be so awesome).

YAC numbers are beyond elite

The TCU product is right there with Kadarius Toney as one of the very best collegiate receivers at making defenders miss over the past decade. Nobody has averaged more missed tackles forced per reception since 2014.

Question marks

Comes from a system known for inflating WR production

Sonny Dykes’ air raid offense produced all sorts of big-time numbers in college. This has called into question whether or not Johnston could follow in the footsteps of past Big 12 busts like Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Jalen Reagor among others.

Of course, it should be noted that Johnston did manage to put up solid numbers even before Dykes joined TCU in 2022. Overall, only Nathaniel Dell and Jordan Addison averaged more career receiving yards per team pass attempt than Johnston (2.29) among 27 qualified draft-eligible WRs.

Worrisome short-area quickness numbers

As good as Johnston is after the catch, his three-cone time comes in at just the seventh percentile at the position per The Athletic’s Dane Brugler. Player Profiler gives him a 98th percentile Burst Score … but just a 14th percentile Agility Score.

1.22: Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

• 5’9, 182lbs, 22 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

Landing spot grade: B+

Let’s focus on Baltimore’s passing game for a sec. Previously, a TE headlined their pass-catching group with an assortment of former big-name WRs and cast-offs from other teams fielding passing from Lamar Jackson. Rashod Bateman should be back in the fold and Zay Flowers adds another element of fighting through traffic while still being able to weave through defenders after the catch. Flowers style fits with Lamar as a passer on deep attempts plus short routes which help the entire offense continue to be efficient as an offense.

2023 fantasy expectations

Rashod Bateman’s health and early-season availability is still a question. Regardless, the Ravens have hinted at a more aggressive aerial attack in ‘23 with the hiring of Todd Monken, adding Odell Beckham Jr., and now, drafting Zay Flowers. Flowers should rotate with OBJ and continue to refine his mechanics as a route runner. Temper fantasy expectations given LJ’s penchant for running in a TD or two, but expect to see Flowers early and often this season.

Strengths

Started balling at a young age

Flowers delivered a 34% dominator rating in his age-20 season and followed it up with marks of 36% and 47% in his junior and senior years.

He was an absolute target monster over that stretch, with target shares of 28%, 28%, and 31%.

Eats up yards after the catch

The Boston College product was a plus player in yards after the catch (YAC), with a 6.8-yard average. What makes that number impressive is the fact that Flowers wasn’t just an underneath option – he garnered a 13.0 career average depth of target (aDOT), which is well above average.

Typically, as aDOT goes up, YAC comes down. Since 2014, players with an aDOT between 12 and 14 yards averaged a 4.9 YAC, which Flowers beat by almost two yards.

Far from a small, underneath slot WR

Flowers played most of his snaps on the outside, and, on average, 30% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield, well above the NCAA average of 17%.

While his success rate attacking downfield at the next level could be a challenge against longer and faster defensive backs, he certainly shouldn’t be viewed as an underneath-only type of prospect.

He has a knack for jumping into a defender's back pocket and putting them in a blender once their hips turn. There are a lot of ways to get Flowers involved at the next level, which gives him outs – especially with a creative play-caller.

Question marks

Not the biggest kid in the schoolyard

Size isn’t nearly as necessary in today’s NFL, as rule changes have limited the amount of bone-jarring hits safeties can dish out in the middle of the field. Still, Flowers’ height, weight and arm length make up a frame that is well below the 20th percentile at the position.

Four-year prospect

We have seen four-year options like Chris Olave and Calvin Ridley prosper in recent years, so this isn’t a death knell for Flowers. One difference is how highly those prospects were already thought of before their senior seasons, which does add some risk to Flowers’ profile.

However, his early breakout as a sophomore and continued improvement are good signs that help ease concerns about his four-year status.

On-ball vs. off-ball splits

The more significant concern for Flowers is the career splits in on- and off-ball alignments against Power Five programs, per PFF data.

While Flowers has shown an ability to play outside and win despite his small stature, he has limitations when lined up on the line of scrimmage. It could be a bigger challenge for him at the next level against stronger competition; this issue could push him into a full-time slot role if he fails to grow in this area of his game.

1.23: Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

• 5’11, 173lb, 21 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

Landing spot grade: B

Minnesota ended ‘23 sixth in pass rate over expectation despite featuring just two primary targets in Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson. K.J. Osborn quickly fell behind the former Lions’ TE in targets from Kirk Cousins and none of the rotating WRs became fantasy relevant. Jordan Addison becomes the WR2 with his ability to work inside and on the perimeter. He allows Jefferson to work back inside while still requiring defensive attention on the outside. Pour one out for Osborn who made some splashes towards the end of 2022 as Addison’s first-round draft capital cements him as a primary target for Cousins.

2023 fantasy expectations

Addison replaces Adam Thielen and adds to the Vikings’ short and immediate passing game. However, Jefferson and Hockenson garnered most of the looks from Kirk Cousins in key situations. Addison will need to quickly gain the trust of Cousins to see meaningful targets outside of early downs. Luckily, the USC product has the skill set to win independent of coverage which should earn him positive marks from Cousins as Addison integrates into the offense.

Strengths

Dominated vs. man and zone coverage alike – and not just from the slot

Many fantasy managers will zero in on his lack of size without even watching him play. The quick assumption many might make from his impressive 2.99 yards per route run (YPRR), which ranked 11th, would be that an interior role aided his efficiency.

However, in spite of his frame between perceived as diminutive, Addison earned 77.1% of his targets on the perimeter and ran just 24.0% of his routes from the slot. He was able to play from and beat coverage from either alignment.

Thrived in multiple collegiate environments

Not only did Addison’s targets per route run (TPRR) at USC align with his career averages at Pitt, but his 25.8% TPRR last season was the highest among all the USC WRs.

Although fellow junior WR Tahj Washington was expected to assume the No. 1 WR role after Drake London departed for the NFL, it was Addison who instead led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs in 2022.

The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner’s ability to command targets along with his capacity to create yards after the catch (21st in YAC last year) should allow him to be an impact player at the next level.

Question marks

Could be pigeon-holed into a slot-only role

Addison’s results from the NFL Combine were a mixed bag. He re-ran the 40-yard dash, and his other test results were also lackluster, at best.

His low weight and lack of speed could make NFL coaches see him as a slot-only WR, hampering his early-career development, even though his skillset belies more explosive talent.

Failed to consistently win in physical one-on-one situations

Even though he was able to hoard the targets at USC, QB Caleb Williams didn’t view Addison as a WR who could fight through traffic.

Addison's great contact balance allowed him to weave through defenders and create YAC, but he struggled to muscle his way to the ball if his footwork couldn't gain him leverage.

1.24: New York Giants (via Jacksonville Jaguars:) Deonte Banks, DB, Maryland

1.25: Buffalo Bills (via Jacksonville Jaguars): Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

• 6’4, 246lbs, 23 years old
• Dynasty rookie profile

Landing spot grade: C-

Buffalo could use another pass-catcher, but expectations were they’d add a solid wide receiver. Kincaid offers pass-catching upside and his frame puts him in a better position to take in targets from Josh Allen. The “glass-half-full” thought is he takes over as a third-down option at minimum, but he’ll have to compete against Dawson Knox for red-zone looks.

2023 fantasy expectations

Josh Allen targets the TE position at the third-lowest rate in 2023. Even as the team cycled in WRs, Dalton Knox only earned 65 targets on the season. Kincaid earned more hype as a pass-catcher and not a blocker and Allen has already noted he needs to protect himself more as he gets older. So, Kincaid’s snap rate may start off low to start the season with Knox and the other WRs already in place making Kincaid tough to trust early on in ‘23.

Strengths

Catchy Santana song athlete (smooth)

Like many of the great TEs, basketball was originally Kincaid’s primary sport – and it shows. He has excellent footwork, hands, and body control, which allows him to regularly make acrobatic, highlight-reel catches.

Kincaid is a good route runner with very promising separation skills. He can get in and out of breaks quickly and showed the ability to track deep passes well. The Utah product is also a threat after the catch with the ball in his hands and has enough speed to make plays in the open field.

Good luck covering the man with a linebacker!

Room to develop (despite his age)

Kincaid only played one year of high school football before playing five collegiate seasons at a combination of the University of San Diego and Utah. This relative lack of experience and non-traditional path suggests he may still have room to develop.

He posted a YPRR over 2.0 in both seasons at Utah, and his 2.42 mark in 2022 was second-best in the nation among TEs with at least 25 targets. That level of efficiency for a player with limited experience is a great sign.

Normally, the fact that he will turn 24 during his rookie season would be a bigger red flag. It still isn’t ideal, but a longer college career is unsurprising with his lack of football background.

Given his natural ability as a pass-catcher, his ceiling could be extremely high if he continues to improve as a football player with the help of NFL coaching.

Question marks

Blocking is rather meh

Kincaid leaves a lot to be desired as a blocker. He graded out with the 112th-best run-blocking grade from PFF among TEs with at least 100 blocking snaps in 2022.

For fantasy purposes, that might be a good thing as he won’t be asked to stay in and block, but it could also limit his ability to earn an every-down role. Hopefully, his new employer will do so with a specific role in mind for his skill set.

Lack of strength/physicality

The more concerning issue is if NFL safeties and coverage linebackers will be able to limit Kincaid by knocking him off his routes and getting physical at the catch point.

Overall, his contested catch success rate dropped from 78% to 50% from his junior to senior seasons, which is a worrying trend and something NFL defenses will use to their advantage if it is truly a weakness in his game.

1.26: Dallas Cowboys: Mazi Smith, DL, Michigan

1.27: Jacksonville Jaguars (via Buffalo Bills): Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

1.28 Cincinnati Bengals: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

1.29: New Orleans Saints: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

1.30: Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

1.31 Kansas City Chiefs: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State