For the dynasty managers out there, do you ever get that itch to make a trade during the offseason while the rest of your league takes some time off after the Super Bowl? I’m with you. While I don’t recommend making moves just for the sake of making moves, here are four players I think are undervalued relative to their current dynasty price.
Rashee Rice, WR - Chiefs
Fresh off a Super Bowl victory in his rookie season, I’m honestly surprised that Rashee Rice isn’t valued higher in dynasty formats. His current ADP comes in at WR20 which feels…fine? I kinda figured the undisputed WR1 for Patrick Mahomes would be ranked a touch higher. After all, Rice had almost 50 more targets than the Chiefs’ WR2 (Justin Watson).
I guess that makes him a dynasty trade target. Let’s dive in.
Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers safety Logan Ryan (33) tackles Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) during the second quarter of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Even before he entered the league, Chris Allen wrote up a dynasty rookie profile on Rice and said the following:
Taken over a two-year sample from PFF, Rice is one of four prospects with an above-average target per route run (TPRR) rate from the slot and out wide. He commanded targets regardless of alignment. Plus, he was efficient in both positions…Rice posted top-10 yards per route run (YPRR) marks within his class at each station. His 2.61 YPRR from the perimeter (10th) and 2.67 YPRR from the slot (6th) highlight his talent to contribute from Day 1.
Rice did come in at No. 10 in our Rookie WR Model, but his landing spot with Mahomes couldn’t have been any better. Despite taking a bit to secure a full-time role on the field, Rice finished the season about as well as he could have.
Even heading into the Divisional Round, Dwain McFarland highlighted just how special Rice’s usage was and how it compared historically to other wideouts:
The targets are high-end WR1 material, but his air yards and aDOT are below WR1 thresholds. However, based on the last 12 seasons of data, Rice’s comp group fared well, finishing as the WR13 on average with 16.4 points per contest.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Chris Godwin
- Jarvis Landry
- Jaylen Waddle
- Julian Edelman
- Keenan Allen
That’s not too shabby. Those WRs have all posted at least one top-12 finish, and most have multiple in their career. Playing in a pass-first offense with Mahomes, it’s hard to imagine Rice not paying off at least WR2 value next season while offering WR1 upside if he follows the path of St. Brown.
While our own Matthew Freedman has the Chiefs selecting WR Troy Franklin from Oregon with the final pick in the first round, I think having a teammate who can stretch the field would only benefit Rice and his skillset. Chris Allen noted a similar idea back in his dynasty rookie profile.
Needless to say, a WR20 price tag does not scare me away from Rice. He’s shown enough after one season with an elite head coach and an elite QB to warrant consideration as a priority trade target in dynasty formats this offseason.
Trey Palmer, WR - Buccaneers
If Rice is too expensive for your taste but you still want to target a young wideout heading into Year 2 who could take a big step forward, look no further than Trey Palmer.
Palmer landed with the Buccaneers after they drafted him in Round 6 last spring. After spending three uninspiring years at LSU, he finished his collegiate career at Nebraska where he had an impressive final season:
- 71 receptions
- 1,043 receiving yards
- 9 TDs
While he came in at No. 24 in our Rookie WR Model, he did post one of the best single-season dominator ratings of anyone in this class.
His rookie season box score won’t wow you, but when you consider he played behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, his underlying metrics were pretty solid for a Day 3 pick.
Both Evans & Godwin topped 130 targets, and together they accounted for 47% of the passing volume from Baker Mayfield. For Palmer, 68% route participation, 12% target share, and 14% air yards are fine starting points.
One point that needs monitoring is that both Mayfield and Evans are free agents. Head coach Todd Bowles recently said:
He (Evans) had a career year last year. Obviously, he had a heck of a year and he’s been doing it for a decade now and obviously, we want him to retire as a Buc. And everything we’re trying to do put all our resources [into] trying to sign him back as well. Mike is great for the community, he’s great for the team, he’s great for the guys and he’s a heck of a ball player.
Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Trey Palmer (10) runs for a touchdown after a reception against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Even if we assume Evans is back, I think Palmer is still a viable trade target in dynasty formats. His dynasty WR72 ranking does not make it prohibitive to acquire him this offseason. If Evans signs elsewhere, that certainly leaves a massive void, and Palmer has demonstrated high-end target-earning ability in his career.
Finally, Palmer brings excellent athleticism as demonstrated by his 4.33 40-yard dash (98th percentile) and 107.7 speed score (89th percentile). Those are the types of measurables that will keep you on the field and getting opportunities more often than not. Let’s hope Palmer can continue to make the most of them.
Jake Ferguson, TE - Cowboys
Everytime I write about the TE position, the narrative is almost always the same: if you have an elite option, you’re set…if you don’t, you’re constantly searching for the next household name. Jake Ferguson provides you a nice option where you won’t have to break the bank, but he’s far better than most “streaming” options at the position.
In his first season as the starting option, Ferguson went 71 / 761 / 5 on 102 targets. He was second in targets behind only CeeDee Lamb (181) and earned 20+ more targets than the next closest player (Brandin Cooks).
Neither Cooks or Michael Gallup seem to be long term answers at receiver, so barring a splashy offseason move or an addition via the draft, Ferguson should maintain a firm grip on the No. 2 pass-catching option for Dak Prescott next season.
To further put Ferguson’s season in perspective, he finished inside the top 10 among all TEs in the following categories:
- Targets
- Receptions
- Receiving yards
- Receiving TDs
- PPG & PPR
When you factor in that he’s the secondary option on what has been one of the best offenses in football over the last several seasons, there’s no reason he should be ranked as the dynasty TE12.
Another interesting nugget to consider is the status of Tony Pollard. Ian Hartitz noted the following this week: “Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, none of Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs nor Pollard are expected to receive the franchise tag ahead of 2024.”
Pollard is a premier pass-catching back as demonstrated by his 122 targets over the last two seasons. He’s averaging 52 targets per year over his last four years. If he winds up signing elsewhere, that will account for a significant number of targets that Ferguson (and others) could gobble up.
Pat Freiermuth, TE - Steelers
The future prospects for all Steelers depend on who is under center Week 1. That uncertainty can create uncertainty within the market, which in turn creates the ideal buying opportunity for those savvy dynasty managers.
After a 7 TD rookie season and a 700+ receiving yard sophomore season, Pat Freiermuth took a step back in Year 3. He missed time with a hamstring injury that didn't help his final stat line, but it was still a disappointing season for someone we tabbed as an option to draft with massive target upside potential.
He did, however, post a somewhat decent stretch of games to finish the season that coincided with the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
Despite the encouraging-ish end to the season, fantasy managers across the board want more from the QB position than what they’ve been getting.
By now, the Steelers HAVE to know that Kenny Pickett just isn’t it. He’s thrown just 13 TDs in 25 career games. However, here’s some bad news. Unfortunately for everyone except Pickett, it sounds like Pittsburgh may give him another shot at keeping his job. A former NFL general manager said he believes the team is going all in on Pickett.
Jan 15, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (88) makes a catch in the second half against the Buffalo Bills in a 2024 AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Whether it’s Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Pickett, or someone else, NFL and fantasy fans are craving someone who can get the ball to Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Freiermuth on a more consistent basis.
Freiermuth currently has a dynasty ADP of TE17. I don’t want to oversimplify things, but I do think the Steelers are an above-average QB away from being truly competitive. If they figure that position out, Freiermuth is wildly undervalued and dynasty managers need to take notice.
