Devontez Walker Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Devontez Walker Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 192.7 Overall (WR81), rookie WR15

Sometimes, acknowledging WR archetypes can be a bad thing.

On the one hand, understanding how a player wins, whether it be through route running, blazing speed, or physicality (or some combination), is good. It sets expectations. We can project ranges of outcomes.

However, archetypes can narrow our focus. It’s easy to connect a WR prototype to a name. And then things go from abstract to real. For example, let’s look at Devontez Walker’s athletic profile.

Of course, Walker’s straight-line speed, along with his high-end measurables in the explosive testing, raises some eyebrows (in a good way). But his average height and slender build raise concerns. Throw in his alignment data, which shows he was almost exclusively a perimeter receiver, and some names come to mind.

• Robbie Anderson
• Darius Slayton
• Quez Watkins

Let me guess. After seeing those players mentioned, you’ve forgotten about Walker’s speed and any highlights you may have caught on social media. Or, at the very least, those memories are tarnished. So, let’s take a step back and form an honest assessment of the incoming freshman.

Pros and Cons of Devontez Walker

Pros

Instant Target Earner

Earning targets is a skill. Full stop.

Receivers don’t just luck into gaining the attention of their QB. Typically, you have to do something to entice them to throw you the ball in the future. A routine catch doesn’t work, though.

That works.

Big plays are a constant across Walker’s metrics. And I’m specifically choosing the word “big” instead of “explosive” here. In his second year at Kent State, Walker accounted for 11 of the 17 passing TDs thrown during the regular season. He produced the third-most first downs at UNC. Accordingly, his target share continued to dominate the competition once he became a starter.

So, while I brought up Slayton and Watkins earlier, we can reshape our predictions for Walker based not just on how often QBs looked his way but what he did with the ball in his hands. Walker made his passers better. And he didn’t do it all on gains of 15 yards or more.

For reference, Walker is in the top-right quadrant with Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, classmate Troy Franklin, and, well, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Regardless, we shouldn’t box the Kent State and UNC speedster into the “boom-bust WR” box right away. If given the chance to develop, Walker has shown the ability to deliver on his opportunity. 

Does One Thing Pretty Well

OK, so let’s address the elephant in the room. Walker spent most of his time on the outside.

Per PFF, he ran 708 routes over his two years in the starting lineup. Ninety-one (or 12.9%) came from the slot. But we shouldn’t hold it against him.

Like I said earlier, we think of player archetypes, we see names, and we assign value. And if we were to look at the common advanced metrics (e.g., yards per route run, targets per route run), Walker’s 2.43 YPRR would fall behind the class. But the others ran different routes. Their high-percentage looks (and athletic skill) boost their stats. However, if we filter everyone’s stats to look at just their perimeter performances, Walker comes back in line with his peers.

Being fast can’t be the only reason Walker falls just behind the top WR prospects. He needed to combine his biggest weapon with other skills. The former Tarheel was able to complement his burst with the ball-tracking ability to keep defenders on their toes.

Admittedly, the CB gave Walker a free pass in that rep. With his size concerns, he’ll need a baseline understanding of using his hands to gain separation at the snap. And at the Senior Bowl, he demonstrated good technique.

In the right situation, Walker’s skills off the line and burst would make him a worthy red-zone threat. And with him primarily playing on the perimeter, it’d be easier to see him playing more snaps should a team rely on more two-TE personnel groupings once they’re in scoring position.

Cons

Does One Thing (Pretty Well)

So, here’s the other side of a double-edged sword.

If you have an edge at one skill, that edge had better be sharp. And as we saw with Walker, he was good. 

His numbers on the outside fell in line with the class. But they weren’t the best. His top-end range of outcomes would be an above-average outside receiver. However, to be a reliable WR2 or WR3, you’d need other elements to your game. Targets from the slot or a low aDOT (encouraging high-percentage throws) would be conducive to a dependable second- or third-WR option. And yet, Walker never had either of those opportunities.

Walker has the highest receiving aDOT of his class while also having the lowest slot rate. Essentially, he catches passes downfield and frequently faces man or press coverage. Outside of a highly creative offense, coaching staffs may relegate his skillset to a role more viable to real-life football than fantasy football.

Inefficient on His Routes

I’m a gamer at heart (although I don’t have the time to play as much as I used to), so I’ll broadly apply the term “one trick” to Walker.

The descriptor describes itself. In Walker’s case, we can see his on-field prowess is limited to the outside. So, the hope would be he could untangle himself from any defender or efficiently move around defenders despite his exterior alignment. But that wasn’t the case for Walker in his final two years. 

While running a limited route tree, there are nuances and details you need to pick up in order to squeeze the most out of each reception. And while Walker showed the skillset to win off the line, his after-the-catch prowess needs refinement.

Mr. Waldman points out subtleties that every WR in this class could acknowledge. However, Walker is one of the few working from the outside. His consistent deployment necessitates an upper-level understanding of the traits required for the position. Unfortunately for Walker, he’s taking graduate-level courses with an undergraduate course load. As a result, he may need a rotational role to gain a foothold in the fantasy space.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Devontez Walker

In cases like Walker’s, I’ll lean on the mock draft community for a pre-draft assessment of value. Fantasy cost sits at the intersection of talent, situation, and opportunity. And we can sprinkle draft capital (or what teams used to acquire you) across all three. So, when I see Walker as a late Day 2 option, I’m not surprised.

Like the names I mentioned at the top, we can bound a player’s potential by historical output. Chosen Anderson had his moments in the sun. Darius Slayton has been useful but needs consistent QB play to be more of a reliable option. The list (and excuses) continues. We can apply the same logic to Walker’s case.

His current draft value puts him in a useable range. Dynasty purists will see third-round draft capital, and Walker will check a box. Redraft enthusiasts can instantly forecast production based on landing spots. The speculation and mental math never stops. And if Walker gets both, above-average draft capital and a high-powered offense, we’ll see his productive traits shine in 2024.