Xavier Worthy
- Underdog ADP: 118.3 overall (WR54)
- WR Rookie Model Percentile: 59%
Summary
Anytime you can set a record at the NFL Combine it is going to help your draft stock. Even better if it’s a record in the most talked about event, the 40-yard dash.
That is exactly what Xavier Worthy did when he ran the 40 in just 4.21 seconds, breaking the record held by John Ross. Unlike some of the other NFL Combine heroes who boosted their draft stock with a fast 40 time, Worthy has a legit production profile to go along with the insane testing numbers.
Year | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs |
2021 | 62 | 981 | 12 |
2022 | 60 | 760 | 9 |
2023 | 75 | 1,014 | 5 |
It isn’t ideal that his production didn’t get better as he aged at Texas, but he broke out as a true freshman which is one of the most encouraging signs we can have for a player entering the NFL.
He was also used differently in the Texas offense each season (more on that below) which helps to explain some of the ups and downs throughout his career.
Pros
Blazing speed
Every article or conversation about Worthy is going to lead with his speed, and rightfully so. He will enter the NFL as one of the fastest players in the league, and he isn’t just a guy who tests fast, he plays fast as well.
NFL teams have continued to value speed more and more as the league has shifted to spread out passing attacks and Worthy looks like he could be coming along at the right time to capitalize on that trend.
Worthy is an ideal fit for the way NFL offenses have started using motion to give their WRs a free release with a running start.
Mar 2, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy (WO40) ran an official time of 4.21 seconds to set a combine record during the 2024 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
It’s also worth mentioning that Worthy was a great punt returner in college. While that won’t necessarily help his fantasy value, it is another positive sign that he is a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands rather than just a track athlete on a football field.
Versatility
One of the things I like about Worthy is that he showed the ability to play multiple roles in the Texas offense, he wasn’t just a deep threat. In fact, his average depth of target varied widely from one season to the next. He went from a 17.8-yard aDOT in the 2022 season to a 10.3-yard aDOT in the 2023 season and put up very similar yards per reception numbers in each season.
His alignment in the offense also changed as he ran just 23% of his routes from the slot in 2022 and that number jumped up to 38% in the 2023 season. Texas used him more on screen passes in his final season and he racked up an impressive 571 yards after the catch, 13th most among all WRs.
Interestingly, his best season (2021) came when his aDOT (13.4) and alignment (29.5% slot rate) were in between the more extreme numbers that he posted in his final two seasons.
Although he can play multiple roles while lining up outside and in the slot, I wouldn’t call him a complete receiver. He doesn’t have the size and physicality to play over the middle reliably and his route tree is only partially developed. He excels on short or deep routes but has room for improvement in the intermediate passing game.
Cons
Size
It matters less and less at the WR position each year, but we can’t ignore the fact that Worthy is still an outlier when it comes to his size on a football field. At just 165 pounds there are real concerns about his ability to handle physical NFL corners and remain healthy for a full season.
When defenders can get their hands on him, Worthy can be pushed off his routes and struggle to separate. He can be taken out of games for long periods when facing a good press corner, something he’ll see more of in the NFL.
He might improve in this area, but I don’t expect him to bulk up significantly in the NFL so he will have to find ways to make up for his lack of play strength. Improving his release package will help but the biggest win would just be landing in an offense with a creative play designer who will find ways to get him the ball on the move and in space.
Fantasy Impact
One of the biggest winners of the NFL Combine, Worthy’s draft stock is certainly on the rise and his cost in fantasy drafts is trending up as well. There are holes in his game, but they matter more for real football than fantasy football. Any team that drafts him in the early rounds is going to make an effort to scheme up touches and get the ball in his hands in space where he can do things that few other players can.
He doesn’t have the same ceiling as the top receivers in this class when it comes to season-long or career-long stats, but his weekly upside should be right up there with anyone.
I like Worthy more in redraft and best ball formats than I do in Dynasty because he has a really wide range of outcomes and some longevity concerns. I don’t expect him to ever be a high-volume receiver so I would rather take him in formats where his weekly ceiling matters more.
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