What is a 5-tool WR?
A five-tool player in baseball is someone who is capable of hitting for average, hitting for power, running, fielding, and throwing at a high level. At a minimum, the player should be above-average in each of these categories, representing a true all-around, versatile player.
We can take this archetype from baseball and apply it to wide receivers in football. Honing in on the five most important tools for a wide receiver to have is a bit subjective, but I’m confident that someone notching high marks in the following traits deserves to be lauded as an all-around baller. In no particular order, these traits are:
- Speed
- Size
- Hands
- Route-running ability
- Playmaking ability
This study shouldn’t be confused for fantasy rankings for 2023 – Dwain McFarland’s rookie WR Super Model does a great job of encompassing all the variables that have historically correlated with future NFL success for WRs.
Rather, we’re looking for potential under-the-radar gems who might have a chance to surprise if draft capital and landing spots go their way. For instance, Nico Collins and Romeo Doubs are two WRs who stood out when I did this study the last two years.
Special thanks to Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Player Profiler for collegiate data as well as size, weight, and speed percentiles.
Who are the 2023 5-tool WRs?
This is a Mickey Mouse-sized 2023 WR draft class without much top-end speed. The majority of this year's “elite” prospects at WR have been knocked for size concerns, and most also failed to impress with their 40-yard dash times.
All in all, just six 2023 rookie WRs boast weight, height, and speed percentiles of 50% or higher. Of course, this only checks the first two boxes in our quest for a five-tool WR, but there’s good reason why none of these players are projected as first-round selections in the NFL Draft.
A quick look at Dane Brugler’s always-fantastic draft guide, “The Beast”, rather quickly rules out Princeton WR Andrei Iosivas and West Virginia WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton due to their lack of route-running ability. Credit to both for having demonstrated special athleticism, but they profile more as Day 3 projects than WRs who can make an immediate impact in 2023.
Just four incoming rookie WRs have the potential to be legit five-tool WRs at the NFL level. Here are the four finalists.
SMU WR Rashee Rice
- Size: 6’0 and 200 lbs.
- Speed: 4.51 40-yard dash
- Hands: 8% drop rate in 2022 (252nd among 402 WRs)
- Route-running ability: 6/10 in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft guide
- Playmaking ability: 0.23 explosive play rate in 2022 (122nd among 402 WRs)
Here's a summary on Rashee Rice from his Fantasy Life Dynasty Rookie Profile:
“Without question, Rice can develop into a reliable pass-catching option for any team. He can line up anywhere on the field and gain enough separation using his burst to command opportunities. Rice also showed willingness as a downfield blocker to spring his teammates for long scores. All of the raw traits are there.
Nov 14, 2020; Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs wide receiver Rashee Rice (11) goes up for the ball as Tulsa Golden Hurricane cornerback Tyon Davis (0) closes in during the fourth quarter at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. TU won the game 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports
But Rice will be 23 years old by the time he takes his first snap in the NFL. He couldn’t sustain a dominant workload when faced with competition and lacks much of the nuance to the position, which may further limit his on-field reps.
Day 2 draft capital is critical to his fantasy value. Without it, Rice's development (like his place on the depth chart) will fall behind his teammates, making him an avoid in fantasy formats.”
Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman
- Size: 6’3 and 213 lbs.
- Speed: 4.54 40-yard dash
- Hands: 5% drop rate in 2022 (120th among 402 WRs)
- Route-running ability: 6/10 in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft guide
- Playmaking ability: 0.15 explosive play rate in 2022 (314th among 402 WRs)
Here's a summary on Cedric Tillman from his Fantasy Life Dynasty Rookie Profile:
“Over the last five drafts, on average, 10.6 receivers get drafted in the first 64 picks. As the consensus WR9—and WR2 among X receivers—Tillman has a real chance to go higher than most people are expecting.
Looking at the SEC receivers who have gone in the second round in the last five years, only two players have been disappointments while many have become fantasy stars early.
Tillman didn’t just dominate the SEC—he did it against the top defenses in 2021 when he was fully healthy. Against Alabama, he had 7-152-1, and he destroyed the Georgia Bulldogs' number 1 defense in the country with a 10-200-1 stat line.
As the WR94 off the board in early drafts, Tillman is a risk-free dart throw that can pay off in a huge way if he gets the draft capital that supports early playing time.”
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Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo
- Size: 6’1 and 226 lbs.
- Speed: 4.46 40-yard dash
- Hands: 7% drop rate in 2022 (216th among 402 WRs)
- Route-running ability: 5/10 in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft guide
- Playmaking ability: 0.23 explosive play rate in 2022 (125th among 402 WRs)
Here's a summary on Jonathan Mingo from Brugler's draft guide, "The Beast":
“A four-year starter at Ole Miss, Mingo lined up across the formation in head coach Lane Kiffin’s offense with 61.3 percent of his targets coming between the numbers (slants, in-breakers etc.). He joined Jalin Hyatt as the only two SEC receivers with 50-plus catches and 16.5-plus yards per reception in 2022 (he broke Elijah Moore’s single-game receiving record with a 247-yard performance vs. Vanderbilt).
A smooth, physical presence with strong hands, Mingo is a balanced athlete in his releases, routes and at the catch point. He is a long-strider who needs a beat to build up his speed and must fine-tune areas of his game, including his efficiency at the top of the stem.
Overall, Mingo has only average deception and separation quickness, but with his size, pacing and competitive ball skills, he has the body control and upside that has the attention of NFL teams. He has starting potential in the right situation.”
Iowa State WR Xavier Hutchinson
- Size: 6’2 and 203 lbs.
- Speed: 4.53 40-yard dash
- Hands: 5% drop rate in 2022 (132nd among 402 WRs)
- Route-running ability: 6/10 in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft guide
- Playmaking ability: 0.17 explosive play rate in 2022 (284th among 402 WRs)
Here's a summary on Xavier Hutchinson from Brugler's draft guide, "The Beast":
“A three-year starter at Iowa State, Hutchinson was the X wide receiver in former offensive coordinator Tom Manning’s offense. The FBS leader in catches per game (8.9) in 2022, he set the Big 12 record for most receptions (254) by a three-year player, passing Justin Blackmon (252).
Feb 2, 2023; Mobile, AL, USA; American wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson of Iowa State (4) grabs a touchdown pass in front of American defensive back Christopher Smith II of Georgia (27) during the third day of Senior Bowl week at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile. Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
The Cyclones’ leading receiver each of his three seasons in Ames, Hutchinson is a physical, quick-footed mover with NFL-worthy body control and catch instincts. Though his tape shows both toughness and urgency, he lacks separation burst in his releases and at the stem, and it will be tougher for him to shake tight man coverage in the NFL.
Overall, Hutchinson is an average-twitch athlete and doesn’t have a truly distinguishing trait, but his competitive mindset and well-rounded game will be appealing to an NFL team looking for a rotational possession target. He has the potential to be an eventual No. 2 in the NFL with additional polish.”
Conclusion
It's lame but true: there really isn’t a true five-star WR in this class who checks every single box. Our four finalists managed to essentially each have four of the five tools, but lack of explosive playmaking ability doomed Hutchinson and Tillman, and drop rate nullified Rice and Mingo.
Of course, we're talking about young athletes in their early 20s here. There’s plenty of time for these WR prospects to develop and improve, especially considering the fact that NFL WRs usually don’t start posting top-tier fantasy production until their second year in the league anyway.
Credit to our aforementioned four finalists for checking far more good boxes than bad heading into the 2023 NFL Draft, though. Hopefully, there's still a chance that one or two of the above rookie WRs can become five-tool WRs on fun passing offenses.
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