Cade Stover Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Cade Stover Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 239.8 Overall (TE49), rookie TE6

There’s no question that ‘helmet scouting’ is a thing.

NFL evaluators putting their metaphorical thumb on the scale for a player based on what college they play for isn’t always bad. We know not all production is equal. And some programs create more competition, either internally (e.g., bringing in highly-touted recruits) or externally (facing stronger opponents). In essence, we’re not prioritizing the school, per se; we’re giving a nod to its quality.

So, when I see a pass-catcher from Ohio State (I went to Cincinnati. No, I’m not putting the ‘the’ in front of OSU), naturally, I’m interested. It’s even better when they can make plays.

Cade Stover has been a steady presence within the Buckeye’s passing game over the last two seasons. Stover’s 576-yard campaign in ’23 is his career-best. However, as his athletic profile suggests, the two-year starter was a problem for defenders in the open field.

But I wouldn’t describe Columbus, OH as the land of TE prospects. In recent history, that moniker has gone to Iowa. Ohio State has produced QBs, a couple of RBs, and, most notably, high-end WRs. A productive TE gives me pause, but his baseline athleticism should keep us interested in his NFL landing spot.

Pros and Cons of Cade Stover

Pros

A QB’s Best Friend

For QBs, if their TE isn’t helping them stay upright by blocking, then they better be keeping the chains moving. Whether it’s through their size (not a selling point for Stover at 6’3”-247 lbs) or speed/footwork, a non-WR pass-catcher has to provide value on their touches. Stover consistently displayed a knack for eluding the first defender to pick up additional yards.

While Stover’s frame may limit his power or ability to drive through tackles, the former Buckeye had enough shiftiness in his game to rack up yards. As a result, his career receiving yards per team pass attempt, a notable component of Dwain McFarland’s TE and WR Rookie Super Models,  places him in the Top 3.

However, we can look at his QB-friendly traits through different lenses. Let’s start simple.

Does Stover have the burst and elusive ability to win at the catch point? Yes, his athletic measurables line up some of the top TEs drafted over the last half-decade.

OK, let’s take it a step further.

Did Stover produce in a way that was meaningful to the offense? Yes, he had the third-highest first-downs per target rate in his class. Stover is one of four TEs in the class with above-average metrics in first-down per target and forced missed tackle rate. 

You can see Stover’s smooth reception technique show up even when he’s weaving through traffic to catch a pass.

Stover went on to highlight his fluidity as a receiver at the NFL Combine. So, even with some size concerns, he’d turn into a go-to option for most QBs in obvious passing situations.

Stacks Up With Veteran TEs

I talked about the idea of TE archetypes before, and body types plus athletic testing numbers help us make comparisons. Stover doesn’t have the speed nor the college production to be an above-average target earner. But he could move fast enough to get behind interior defenders. 

Stover split his time (47.7% inline, 44.1% slot) during his final year at OSU and still cracked 2.0 YPRR (2.04). Hunter Henry comes to mind because of his versatility in pre-snap alignment and route savviness to position himself for big gains. Luckily, his career stats put him in good company.

Sometimes, it’s not just about if you’re the biggest or fastest guy on the field. Understanding route tempo within the concept allows for larger gains. Even with a dropoff in QB play, Stover was still able to display this skill. 

Stover breaks across the middle as the WR starts his break to the outside, keeping his CB’s attention. The space created by the post-corner route (and Stover slipping the first tackle attempt) gives the Buckeye’s TE another 15 yards. Instead of a first down, Stover’s snap at the route stem turns it into an explosive. And with him continuing his training as a route runner, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about his development at the next level.

Cons

Role Player

I’m not breaking any news here, but pass-catchers have to earn their targets. QBs don’t freely hand them out.

Creating separation off the line, pulling away from would-be tacklers, or plowing through them are all good reasons for a signal-caller to keep looking your way. Having those skills makes projections simpler. Players with those abilities have more defined roles. But Stover was more of an ancillary part of OSU’s passing game than a primary component.

In fairness, playing on a squad with Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Emeka Egbuka (who will be on everyone’s radar next year) would make volume an issue for anyone. But here’s where Stover’s lacking acceleration becomes an issue.

Admittedly, the field gets compressed for offenses in goalline situations, but the DB instantly sniffs out the concept and beats Stover to his spot. Without more mass (height or weight), Stover can’t fight through coverage in those situations. It’s part of why Stover’s efficiency numbers dip when faced with man coverage. So unless he goes to an effective playcaller, Stover may see reduced snaps in the red zone, which will cap his upside as a TE.

Product of OSU’s Environment

As I was alluding to earlier, Stover coming from Ohio State will spark intrigue. But go back and check out the highlights I used. He had yards of cushion in over half of them. Outside of the seam-route clip, it wasn’t often you’d see Stover making a catch with multiple players from the other team around him.

It’s not Stover’s fault his surrounding cast demanded significant defensive attention. But, at the same time, we can’t expect his situation to be the same in the NFL. To see if Stover was more of a passenger than a driver in his offense, I looked at his opportunity compared to the amount of air yards that came his way. Unfortunately, the results highlight his environment rather than his inherent abilities.

Despite being close to the average target share for the class, Stover’s 10.6% air yard share was the fourth-lowest mark. In other words, he got looks but wasn’t a first-read option. Consequently, his landing spot and target competition will dictate his fantasy value more than any competencies he has or develops between now and September.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Cade Stover

If I go on vibes alone, I see nothing but upside with Stover. He drew targets in a good offense and kept the team moving. And he made big plays when he could.

Stover’s route-running prowess is already worth a rotational spot in an offense. He can break to the outside to give his QB a relief valve or body a similar-sized defender. And given his mock draft value, Stover may get the requisite draft capital to work into a solid role.

However, we should temper expectations. Stover’s size limitations may show up early in his career.

He won’t be able to work through contact or against skilled corners to gain yards as effortlessly as he did in college. But with another solid supporting cast, Stover will be a worthwhile target in dynasty formats.