Dallin Holker Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Dallin Holker Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 240.0 overall (TE67), rookie TE10

Touchdowns rule the TE position in fantasy.

TEs (typically) don’t earn as much volume as WRs. Their route depths are shorter, leading to fewer yards gained. Consequently, getting in the box is what counts the most for the dual-hatted blockers/receivers. It doesn’t matter how many targets you get.

• Sam LaPorta: 20.9% (target share), 25.1% (FF points from TDs alone)
• George Kittle: 19.1%, 17.7%
• Cole Kmet: 18.9%, 19.9%

All three averaged over 10.0 PPR PPG. However, each had different roles within their offense, and their reliance on scoring six points varied. Regardless, their ability to find the paint still mattered. So, when I see a guy with an eye for the end zone, I’m curious. Take Dallin Holker, for example.

Holker was second in touchdowns for the Rams in 2023. Admittedly, he’ll need a bit more production to sway NFL personnel, and hopefully, Holker’s mark of 766 yards (also second on the team) will help. But afterward, he’ll need to explain his athletic testing numbers to remain in consideration.

An undersized frame and underwhelming quickness don’t inspire much confidence. However, not every TE can accrue 105 targets in a season. So, while his path to fantasy fame might be longer than others, Holker has the chops to remain on our radar in 2024.

Pros and Cons of Dallin Holker

Pros

Continually Earned More Targets

Being able to generate opportunity is at the core of every pass-catching position.

Of course, there are different traits associated with who gets the most volume. A mastery of route running, physicality at the catch point, or blazing speed all help check the box. But getting the ball thrown your way has to come first. And in Holker’s case, he showed enough to see more work each season of college. 

While showcasing an ability to get open, Holker’s release technique isn’t the most technically sound. And by his testing numbers, he won’t beat you with speed. But part of what kept getting the ball thrown his way was his knack for coming out on top in contested situations.

Holker had the most contested targets in Colorado State’s passing game. Coincidentally, he tried to create a similar high-variance situation at the NFL Combine by catching two balls during the gauntlet. Regardless, a positive trend in targets and air yards shows a strong capability of establishing a rapport with your QB. Despite the time it took for him to make that connection, Holker was still able to cash in on the opportunities.

Effective Receiver During His Final Season

So, we at least established that Holker is worth having pass attempts thrown his way. His routes and slot rate (which put him in high-percentage situations) climbed each year. But what he could do with the rock in his hands is still in question.

There had to be a reason he turned into the de-facto WR2 in his last year at Colorado State. They didn’t run out of WRs. However, maybe they didn’t have any others that could create big plays.

Holker scored nine touchdowns in his collegiate career. If you scan social media for a replay of any of his scores, this catch-and-run against the Buffaloes comes up most of the time. It’s understandable, though. The play highlights his selling points as a receiver. But, then again, it is just one play.

For us to see Holker as a worthwhile dynasty asset, he’d need to demonstrate creativity regularly. Or, even if he’s not a beast after the catch, the Rams’ TE would have to be a primary part of the passing game relative to his target competition. Luckily, Holker was both.

In 2023, Holker was one of the five TEs to post above-average metrics in YAC per reception and receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA). He’s the same TE with the below-average athletic scores in the intro. Holker had the “good, not great” explosion numbers. However, the film and stats paint a slightly brighter picture, and in the right NFL situation, Holker could pop up for big gains on Sundays. 

Cons

One Season of Production

Holker’s 2023 on-field results are unimpeachable. They happened. And as I did, we should give him credit for them. However, there’s more to his stats than the raw numbers.

How Holker won on the field, and its repeatability, will likely be a common line of questioning from NFL personnel. His footwork, route running, and ability to adjust to his QB will become larger factors. And even in his best season, some of his deficiencies came up in big moments.

You can see Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi under duress as he bails out of the pocket to his right. Regardless, you can see Holker tracking the ball once it’s in the air. But two things go wrong here. 

First, his route adjustment is incorrect. Instead of cutting in front of the safety, Holker stays on his inside hip. Plus, Holker doesn’t have the quickness to break in front of the ball. All he can do is bring the defender down after the interception and prevent a return. 

Of course, it’s one play. But the details are emblematic of Holker’s shortcomings. However, it helps speak to his slow ramp-up to becoming a full-time player.

On the bright side, we mostly regard TE as a position requiring time to acclimate to the pros. Coaching staffs ask more of them and the margin for error is slimmer. However, if Holker needed multiple years to finally succeed at a smaller school, his chances of becoming an instant impact may be even smaller.

More Work Didn’t Lead to Better Play

The general assumption for any pass-catcher would be a dependent relationship between volume and efficiency. In other words, if they get more work, they’ll be more efficient. Or if they’re already above average here, they can maintain.

We know the first part happened. I already mentioned that Holker got more work each season. And, to his credit, his YAC per reception in ’23 increased compared to '22. However, looking at his full body of work, Holker was inconsistent after the catch and became less efficient as a pass-catcher despite the increased volume.

Not great! 

Combined with Holker’s measurables and apparent flaws as a receiver, he’ll need to show NFL teams he’s working on his craft. In the worst-case scenario, he can land on a squad with an established veteran to gain some insight into the position and shine in spot starts.

Fantasy Outlook for Dallin Holker

You can see the wide (albeit capped on the high side) range of outcomes with Holker.

Despite the mixed results at the NFL Combine, Holker showed out at CSU’s Pro Day and showcased his skills as a potential deep threat. And front offices don’t have to hunt long to see what the Rams’ TE can do on the field.

Regardless, his mock draft value has him appropriately valued. 

Holker needs time to develop without hindering his offense. Release technique, fighting through coverage, and snapping off routes take time to master. However, his best-case scenario would be learning on a west-coast offense with entrenched WRs to take advantage of Holkers’s big-play ability right away.