The 2023 NFL Draft is near, and Fantasy Life has you covered with all sorts of dynasty rookie profiles and a rather awesome mock draft. But today, we’re giving some shine to the veterans who are (hopefully) simply spending the dog days of April getting better.
Don’t sleep on the following five non-rookies making a major leap in 2023.
Bills RB James Cook
- Underdog ADP: RB27 (94.6)
On the one hand, Cook was really good as a rookie. He averaged more yards per carry (5.7) than any RB not named Breece Hall (5.8) while posting the position’s eighth-best PFF receiving grade (71.8) among 55 qualified RBs. He might have fumbled away his first career carry, but credit to the rookie for not letting the football hit the ground on his next 126 touches.
On the other hand, the Bills never quite trusted him as an early-down answer. Virtually all of his games with double-digit rush attempts came during a Bills blowout. This is always a possibility with sub-200-pound backs, and the team’s decision to sign ex-Patriots RB Damien Harris in the offseason isn’t a great sign.
The lack of a workhorse role makes it tough to trust Cook – or any other Buffalo RB – as a true high-end fantasy asset. The Bills join the Ravens, Seahawks and Eagles as legit awesome, real-life offenses who haven’t managed to enable fantasy-friendly RBs over the years.
And yet, the rising second-year back profiles as the sort of explosive pass-catching RB who should be a rather awesome target in full-PPR scoring.
The presence of Harris has caused many to assume that Cook will be an afterthought on the ground this season. But that could be a bit overblown considering the ex-Patriots’ relatively mild one-year, $1.77 million deal that includes just $1 million guaranteed. There’s also the reality that Harris has played in just 38 of a possible 66 regular season games since entering the league in 2019.
While the aforementioned chart reveals the lack of overall opportunity inside the Bills’ backfield, the offense has been willing to leave a single RB out on the field longer than most.
Cook’s ADP isn’t exactly dirt cheap at the moment. However, there’s potential here for him to provide:
- Spot starts boomed by his explosive pass-catching ability
- League-winning upside should Harris (again) struggle to stay healthy, resulting in the Georgia talent being the next man up to receive a featured role
There are several intriguing backs priced in the RB3 range at the moment. So don’t be afraid to throw some darts at the one (likely) in the best offense with the most demonstrated pass-down chops.
Vikings RB Alexander Mattison
- Underdog ADP: RB35 (119.6)
It’s possible that Mattison is the Vikings’ starting RB in 2023.
Similar to Joe Mixon, it’s not a given that Dalvin Cook is released; just realize that there’s plenty of warranted smoke to the idea.
Mattison has been rather awesome in his handful of spot starts in place of Cook over the years:
- Week 6, 2020: 10-26-0 rushing, 1-4-0 receiving, PPR RB47
- Week 17, 2020: 21-95-1, 3-50-1, RB4
- Week 3, 2021: 26-112-0, 6-59-0, RB7
- Week 5, 2021: 25-113-0, 7-40-1, RB6
- Week 13, 2021: 22-90-1, 3-34-0, RB8
- Week 16, 2021: 13-41-1, 3-29-0, RB13
The former third-round pick hasn’t averaged over four yards per carry in a season since 2020. But his aforementioned guaranteed-heavy contract certainly seems to paint the picture of a front office happy with his contributions.
Cook played at least 75% of the offense’s snaps in 10 games last season and more than 60% in all but three games. Head coach Kevin O’Connell was more than happy to continue featuring one solo RB for more weeks than not in 2022.
Mattison will immediately be in the upside RB2 conversation should the Vikings move on from Cook. And if not, he’s still not egregiously priced as one of the league’s most-valuable handcuffs.
Bills WR Gabriel Davis
- Underdog ADP: WR39 (77.7)
The presence of guys like John Brown, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders prevented Davis from working as a full-time receiver during his first two years in the league. This changed last year, and the former fourth-round pick accordingly set career-high marks in basically everything.
Of course, a season-long 48-836-7 receiving line wasn’t exactly what truthers had in mind considering the man ended his 2021 campaign with an incredible 8-201-4 performance in the Bills’ batshit crazy AFC Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs. His status as the WR38 in PPR points per game didn’t exactly pay off his pricey WR24 preseason ADP.
Important note: Davis suffered a high-ankle sprain in a Week 2 practice that he ultimately played through during the rest of the season.
He still managed to post the occasional boom, but the injury helps explain why the team felt the need to re-sign Smokey and Beasley later in the season. Bills GM Brandon Beane certainly seems to be giving Davis the benefit of the doubt.
Somehow still only 24 years of age, Davis (again) profiles as Josh Allen’s rather undisputed No. 2 WR. The Bills’ pass-happy offense has produced the single-most expected WR PPR points per game over the past three seasons, and improved health in 2023 should yield returns closer to what drafters were hoping for last season.
Or maybe it won’t. Either way, Davis’ ADP is currently below where he finished last season.
The definition of buying a fantasy asset closer to their floor than ceiling, Davis is a prime post-hype candidate who has proven capable of booming in a major way when everything is right.
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Browns WR Donovan Peoples-Jones
- Underdog ADP: WR50 (116.8)
DPJ set career-high marks in targets (96), receptions (61) and receiving yards (839) alike in 2022. Also, he notably gained at least 50 receiving yards in eight consecutive games during the middle portion of the season.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go too smoothly for Peoples-Jones – or anyone else for that matter – once Deshaun Watson took over in Week 13. Browns pass-catchers put up the following numbers in six starts with the ex-Texans QB:
- Amari Cooper: 21-368-2 (39 targets)
- DPJ: 19-246-2 (31)
- David Njoku: 17-164-2 (28)
- Kareem Hunt: 12-55-0 (16)
- Nick Chubb: 10-87-1 (14)
- Harrison Bryant: 8-60-0 (9)
- David Bell: 4-45-0 (8)
Overall, Peoples-Jones actually posted more top-36 finishes (4) than Cooper (2) with Watson; this was far more of a 1A/1B situation than No. 1 and No. 2 down the stretch.
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones (11) bobbles a pass in the end zone under pressure from Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Marvell Tell III (39) in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 14 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022. The Bengals improved to 9-4 with a 23-10 win over the Browns. Cleveland Browns At Cincinnati Bengals Week 14
The rising fourth-year receiver has demonstrated the ability to get all kinds of separation via double-moves, has made many great contested catches and boasts underrated open-field elusiveness (the man returned punts last year!).
The history of former Day 3 picks returning top-end fantasy value isn’t great. Regardless, DPJ should tentatively return as Watson’s No. 2 pass-game option ahead of a season that could feature a far more pass-happy version of the Browns offense than we’re used to seeing.
The allure of Elijah Moore has continued to keep Peoples-Jones under the radar. And maybe the former Jets receiver just needed a change of scenery to get back on track. However, just realize DPJ should start on the outside regardless and profiles as Cleveland’s version of Will Fuller for Watson.
Bears TE Cole Kmet
- Underdog ADP: TE13 (133)
A whopping five of Kmet’s seven TDs occurred in a three-week stretch last season. Fantasy managers weren’t able to consistently fire him up as a top-12 option with much confidence.
That said, Kmet was THE man at TE in Chicago all year, playing over 80% of the snaps in every game and surpassing the 90% mark on all but three occasions. The rising third-year talent showed the ability to make a real difference as a pass catcher.
It’s hard (read: impossible) to score fantasy points when not on the field, and the Bears have proven to be willing to give Kmet more snaps than just about any other player at the position.
TEs almost always take a few years to get grooving. Kmet didn’t put forward the best marks in PFF receiving grade (66.1, No. 26), yards per route run (1.27, No. 25) or targets per route run (16.1%, No 32), but the man is still just 24 years old while still going late in drafts.
The addition of Robert Tonyan sure doesn’t look to be active competition for Kmet considering the ex-Packers TE signed a small one-year, $2.65 million deal with just $1.25 million guaranteed. I’m not going out of my way to land Kmet in fantasy land this season, but he’s tough to keep out of the position’s top-12 options. He has an every-down role in an offensive scoring environment tentatively expected to improve with a better overall supporting cast and a potential year-three leap from Justin Fields.
There’s a rather steep dropoff after the top 10 TEs. Kmet stands out among the likes of Dalton Schultz, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, Taysom Hill, Juwan Johnson and Mike Gesicki as someone who is far more likely to handle a true every-down role.
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