The NFL Draft is almost here! Sam Wallace offers up a few players dynasty managers should cash out on before their value takes a plunge.
Tyler Allgeier
I don’t have too many mottos in my life, but one principle I try to follow in fantasy football goes something like this:
Sell Day 3 RBs who showed potential as rookies.
Sure, I may end up missing out on certain players who break the mold (I see you, James Robinson), but historical context is on my side.
I’m talking about Atlanta RB & fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier.
Nov 20, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs with the ball against the Chicago Bears at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
He topped 200 carries and 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie; this is the perfect time to cash out.
Eliot Crist published a 2023 NFL Mock Draft and has the Falcons selecting none other than RB Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall.
Robinson is a generational prospect with few-to-no holes in his game, and the Falcons' run-first mentality would be a dream fantasy landing spot. The Falcons threw the ball 13.1% below expectation last season, the second-lowest PROE in football. The Falcons have dropped from +3300 to +250 to be the landing spot for Robinson, currently the betting favorite.
Even if Atlanta doesn’t draft Robinson, they have Picks 44 and 75 in the first two days. Any addition to the backfield would tank whatever value Allgeier has.
I don’t believe Allgeier’s value will climb any higher. This week could be the last chance you have to maximize your return.
K.J. Osborn
Despite not recording a single target as a rookie, Vikings WR K.J. Osborn posted consecutive seasons of 50+ receptions, 650+ receiving yards, and 5+ TDs.
That’s an impressive turnaround.
Osborn’s appeal is heightened following the departure of veteran WR Adam Thielen. Thielen’s overall production dipped in recent years, but he still averaged 100+ targets and 8 TDs per year since 2021.
Could Osborn fill that void? It’s possible. However, Minnesota may add a rookie wideout this week. Chris Allen suggested getting this offense additional help when he “fixed the Vikings” last month.
Superstar WR Justin Jefferson remains the undisputed target-hog. Last season’s mid-season addition of TE T.J. Hockenson provided QB Kirk Cousins with an immediate downfield weapon. Hockenson should remain the No. 2 option.
Osborn has flashed potential, but his career suggests those are outlier performances, not something we should expect moving forward.
His massive Week 15 performance accounted for:
- 17% of his total targets
- 16% of his total receptions
- 24% of his total receiving yards
- 20% of his total points (PPR)
The ceiling is there, but three seasons' worth of data indicates Osborn is nothing more than a fringe flex/bench player. Jefferson, Hockenson, and a potential rookie WR should all be ahead of Osborn in the pecking order.
Use the remaining days of Osborn as the designated “WR2” to sell him while he still has perceived value.
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Odell Beckham Jr.
Name value has incredible staying power in fantasy football.
Certain players, regardless of recent production, health, or age, always seem to retain their value and catch the eye of fantasy managers.
Enter WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Everyone remembers “the catch," but did you know that was nine years ago?!
Yet, here we sit in April 2023, excited about OBJ finally landing with Baltimore. This is despite not seeing him on the field since the Rams' Super Bowl game two seasons ago.
Feb 13, 2022; Inglewood, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) runs the ball against Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Eli Apple (20) during the second quarter in Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Name value is a crazy thing.
OBJ will turn 31 this fall, and the Ravens don't know if they will have their starting QB on the field next season.
Even without the Lamar Jackson drama, the landing spot isn’t great. Last year, the Ravens were bottom five in both pace of play and passing frequency.
If Jackson does stay, that will further increase OBJ’s value. Still, if you still roster him anywhere, I would gladly flip an aging wideout coming off an ACL injury who hasn’t played in over a year.
Zay Jones
This final suggestion isn’t so much tied to the NFL Draft itself as it is getting out from under a player before the value tumbles.
In his sixth season, Jaguars WR Zay Jones posted career-high marks in:
- Targets - 121
- Receptions - 82
- Yards - 823
He also scored the most TDs in 2022 (5) since back in 2018 (7).
If a sixth-year veteran has a breakout campaign that late into his career, that’s usually a good sign to sell him for whatever you can.
The other factor working against Jones is the return of WR Calvin Ridley. Ridley is a former first-round pick with high target-earning capability and an overall WR5 finish on his resume.
Ridley and fellow WR Christian Kirk will operate as the Nos. 1 & 2 with Jones sliding down to No. 3. When you include TE Evan Engram and pass-catching RB Travis Etienne, it quickly becomes apparent that Jones no longer has the upside he enjoyed last season.
At age 28, Jones is nearing the age cliff for WRs anyway, and he hasn’t demonstrated elite target-earning ability. If other managers are either high on Jones and/or skeptical about Ridley’s return from a year-long absence, capitalize by offloading Jones.
