Week 1 is officially upon us.
While redraft season is in full swing, we haven’t forgotten about you dynasty managers out there.
Throughout the season, I will be highlighting players that I believe are on the verge of breaking out.
If you’re keeping a longer-term outlook, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Jordan Addison, WR - Vikings
Getting in on rookie WRs before they rocket up the rankings is critical for dynasty managers looking to flip their rosters from pretenders into contenders.
Jordan Addison, drafted 23rd overall by the Minnesota Vikings, is next on our breakout watch.
The departure of veteran WR Adam Thielen certainly opens up some target opportunity. In his last five healthy-ish seasons, Thielen averaged north of 120 targets per season.
Newly paid TE T.J. Hockenson, a mid-season arrival in 2022, quickly found favor with QB Kirk Cousins over the second half of the season and figures to remain heavily involved. Still, with Addison sporting a dynasty ranking of WR18, there’s reason to be excited.
The Vikings finished 2023 at No. 6 in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and Cousins attempted a career-high 643 passes. We know how much of an anomaly their season was, but the loss of RB Dalvin Cook, the drafting of Addison, and the extension of Hockenson all point to a pass-heavy approach in 2023.
Let’s not kid ourselves; Justin Jefferson remains arguably the best wideout in the game. He’s going to get his. But there’s room for someone like Addison to step in. He was a proven target earner in college as Chris Allen notes:
"Not only did Addison’s targets per route run (TPRR) at USC align with his career averages at Pitt, but his 25.8% TPRR last season was the highest among all the USC WRs…Although fellow junior WR Tahj Washington was expected to assume the No. 1 WR role after Drake London departed for the NFL, it was Addison who instead led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs in 2022."
Cousins has supported a pair of top-24 WRs three times as a Viking (2017, 2018, 2020) so there’s reason for optimism. Hockenson could put a dent in Addison’s target share early but I would be looking to acquire the rookie wideout before his true ascension begins.
Treylon Burks, WR - Titans
There’s going to be an obvious positional trend in this piece throughout the year and I won’t apologize for it. As the league becomes more pass-heavy and implements rules to protect QBs, the rise of WRs will only become more prominent.
Let’s check in on sophomore Treylon Burks.
An erratic rookie campaign resulted in him playing 30+ snaps in just eight games while missing six games altogether.
Now, he has veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins to contend with. Our rankers have Hopkins (WR21) significantly higher than Burks (WR45) but Burks does have the advantage in dynasty rankings (WR32 vs. WR48).
It’s a longer-term play to be sure. Age does make a difference.
The Titans offense figures to run through RB Derrick Henry until the wheels totally fall off.
QB Ryan Tannehill, who missed some time with injury last season, has rejuvenated his career since joining Tennessee back in 2019. Tannehill supported the early A.J. Brown years and should keep Hopkins (and hopefully) Burks relevant in 2023.
Dwain McFarland noted, “Despite the team's QB woes, Burks delivered a 21% TPRR and a 1.75 YPRR as a rookie, both of which were WR3-worthy marks.”
His dynasty ranking sits below players like Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, and Amari Cooper. Each of those are significantly older and I would much rather have Burks at his price point.
The presence of Hopkins could make Burks a slightly slower burn, but the breakout is coming.
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Antonio Gibson, RB - Commanders
Every offseason, there are a few players who stick out as being my “most written about” players. Antonio Gibson has certainly been that for me this summer.
In both redraft, and dynasty, I firmly believe he’s underrated and could ascend as a fantasy asset in the weeks and months ahead.
In just his fourth season, he already has a pair of top-13 finishes. In one of those seasons he rushed for 11 TDs and in the other he topped 1,000 rushing yards. He fell off a bit last year and finished as a high-end RB3 but saw his biggest marks in the receiving department.
Nov 27, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) carries the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
His pass-catching is what makes me excited about him in dynasty formats. Here are a few reasons why.
First, the Commanders released J.D. McKissic, one of the premier pass-catching RBs of the last few years. Ian Hartitz noted, “Overall, Commanders RBs ranked second in expected PPR points per game during the 2020 to 2022 seasons.”
Next, fellow RB Brian Robinson was one of the least-efficient rushers in 2022.
- PFF rushing grade: 81.0 (16th among 41 qualified RBs)
- Yards per carry: 3.9 (33rd)
- Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (35th)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 15.6% (27th)
Finally, the addition of new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy gives me hope that the new-look offense will open up and provide more fantasy output for Gibson.
Gibson carries a dynasty rank of RB36 and is barely 25 years old. The WR-turned-RB is ready to take the next step.
AJ Dillon, RB - Packers
Two WRs and two RBs to kick things off. Perfectly balanced.
Even though I’m a bit biased as a #fan of the Packers, I’m legit excited to see how involved AJ Dillon is this season. Teammate and incumbent Aaron Jones took a pay cut to remain with the team this year and isn’t a lock to return in 2024.
The Jordan Love era is officially underway and I’m looking forward to seeing how the backfield work is divided.
In his Green Bay Packers Team Preview, Ian Hartitz noted:
Jones has stayed healthy for the heavy majority of his career, but the Packers have been willing to give Dillon a near every-down role on the four occasions that their nominal starting RB has been limited to 25 or fewer snaps:
- Week 11, 2021: 11-53-0 rushing, 6-44-0 receiving, 75% snaps
- Week 13, 2022: 18-93-1 rushing, 3-26-0 receiving, 68% snaps
- Week 16, 2022: 11-36-1 rushing, 2-12-0 receiving, 58% snaps
- Week 17, 2022: 12-41-1 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, 46% snaps
Last season, Jones edged Dillon in both rush attempts (213 vs. 186) and targets (72 vs. 43). Jones certainly isn’t running away with the job and Dillon only figures to be more involved.
Without Rodgers manning the helm, Hartitz also suggested, “Dillon should still see double-digit touches far more weeks than not”.
Dillon’s dynasty ranking sits at RB37 (one spot behind Gibson) and that’s a price that is all but guaranteed to soar up the boards this season.
