Dynasty Debates Week 6: How Should We Value These Third-Year Receivers?
Throughout the season, Jonathan Fuller and Sam Wallace will be breaking down the latest trends across the dynasty landscape to help you stay a step ahead of your league mates—both rebuilders and those in win-now mode.
Drake London, WR - Falcons
Jonathan
The 2024 Falcons offense is looking much improved after Kirk Cousins' record-setting 509 yards and four passing TDs on Thursday Night Football. This is undoubtedly the best offensive environment London has gotten to play in, and we're finally starting to see the vision of what London drafters hoped he could become.
Through the first five weeks, London has been bordering on elite WR1 usage with a 27% target share and 34% air yard share. His 8.2 Utilization Score ranks 11th among all WRs, and he finally delivered a ceiling game with 154 yards and a score, finishing as the WR2 on the week.
It's also encouraging that London is well on his way to setting a new career high for receiving TDs, only needing one more to tie his previous career high of four. All of this is to say things are trending up for London's dynasty value as he looks set to post the best season of his young career.
That's great for London's dynasty managers, but he's not a player I want to just blindly hold regardless of how high his fantasy value goes. If London rises to the point of being viewed as a top-12 dynasty WR, I would love to flip him for a player I actually view as an elite dynasty asset.
For example, players like Puka Nacua or Rashee Rice who are missing time due to injuries could be great trade targets for London managers toward the end of this season or during the offseason. Obviously that's not a move you want to make if you are contending for a championship, but I would view both of those guys as an upgrade on London for the long-term.
Sam
Third-year wideout Drake London has been good but not great during his first two seasons with the Falcons. Coming into the league, he had everything you wanted in a high-profile pass catcher—age, draft capital, production profile, model score, everything.
However, consecutive low-end WR3 finishes to begin his career left fantasy managers wanting a bit more.
Then, Kirk Cousins arrived and changed everything.
Despite a rough Week 1, London has been on an absolute tear over his last four games.
London already has three TDs on the season, which is more than he had in 16 games last season and one shy of tying his career high of four from his rookie season.
To be honest, we might still be undervaluing London in dynasty formats. With so much attention focused on other elite options, you could make an aggressive move for London (or the other two players in this piece).
At the start of the season, our dynasty rankings didn't even have London inside the top 12. That certainly should have changed by now. I would comfortably send an early first-round rookie pick (or more) to land London on your dynasty squad.
Garrett Wilson, WR - Jets
Jonathan
All it took was 22 targets for Garrett Wilson to put up a big fantasy performance in Week 5. After struggling to get on the same page with QB Aaron Rodgers to start this season, Wilson got there through sheer volume. He won't get 20+ targets every week, but I still believe the connection between Rodgers and Wilson can improve to the point that he is a consensus top-10 dynasty WR at the end of this season.
The good news is that Wilson should continue to be heavily featured in the offense as he is by far the Jets' most talented pass-catcher, so I'm not concerned about his 2024 fantasy value. Long-term there is uncertainty about what life after Rodgers will look like, but we saw Wilson top 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons while playing with some of the worst QBs in the NFL, so his floor shouldn't go much lower than that.
Yes, there are rumors of a Davante Adams trade, and the Jets did just fire their head coach so the vibes aren't great, but I want to bet on talent in dynasty leagues and Wilson is one of the most talented young WRs in the NFL. He was viewed as the most valuable dynasty asset of the three WRs discussed in this article and I still view him that way.
Sam
Fellow third-year option Garrett Wilson actually carried the highest dynasty ranking of our three highlighted players at the start of this season. Coming in at WR7, he's on the heels of a monstrous performance that saw him post a line of 13/101/1 on a whopping 22 targets.
That sort of high volume certainly won't happen every week, but with Aaron Rodgers only having eyes for him, and a continued lack of production from Breece Hall and the run game, a high target total shouldn't be out of the question moving forward.
Relative to the other two players on our list, Wilson is the one I am most concerned about from a dynasty perspective. Rodgers only has a year or two (at most) left in the league, and he's already showing signs that he isn't quite what he once was during his peak in Green Bay.
Yes, Wilson was productive, to a point, without Rodgers. Even so, he racked up 315 targets over his first two seasons and only scored seven TDs. He also barely cracked 1,000 yards in each of those seasons. The ceiling just won't be there without above-average QB play, and I just don't know what the Jets will do in the post-Rodgers/Saleh era.
However, if you're looking for a reason to be optimistic about Wilson yet this season, Dwain McFarland recently said this (among other things):
Wilson is a low-end WR1 and remains a BUY-LOW candidate.
Chris Olave, WR - Saints
Jonathan
Chris Olave hasn't been bad this season, but he has been overshadowed by the Rashid Shaheed breakout, and there hasn't really been enough volume to go around with Derek Carr ranking 25th among QBs in total pass attempts.
Olave has still been decently efficient on a per-route basis, sitting at 2.01 YPRR while drawing a target on 20% of his routes. Those are solid numbers, but not the WR1 metrics Olave managers were hoping for.
Perhaps the most encouraging metric is ESPN's Open Score where Olave ranks fourth among all WRs. He's creating plenty of separation but just hasn't connected on many big plays yet the way Shaheed has. All signs still point to Olave being a great talent, so I'm not overreacting to a handful of games where he hasn't had a monster game.
In fact, with Derek Carr hurt, things might get rough for the New Orleans offense if their QB misses time, which could send Olave managers into a full-blown panic. I would love to buy-low on a player of Olave's caliber in dynasty. I still prefer him over Drake London for the rest of their careers and would be happy to swap London for Olave (you might even be able to get a little bit extra) if their values continue to trend in opposite directions for the next couple weeks.
Sam
In his first two seasons, Chris Olave was the slightly better version of London. He caught a few more passes for a few more yards, but they were otherwise similar players.
Also, like both London and Wilson, Olave represented a top-three asset in our Rookie WR Model coming out of college.
Talk about an exciting class.
Olave has been a bit of a disappointment in the early portions of this season. While he did string together three games of 80+ receiving yards, he has just one TD and has only really put together one game where you truly felt like he was a dominant wideout (20+ PPR).
The emergence of Rashid Shaheed has been great for the Saints, the memes, and a smattering of fantasy managers, but Olave's ceiling feels capped right now. That's always a frustrating feeling.
Olave's situation, being tied to Derek Carr, isn't the worst, but we sort of know who Carr is at this point. I'm fine holding/buying Olave for the right price (maybe a late future first-round pick), but I honestly don't feel great about it right now.
I suppose his lack of high-end production makes this the ideal time to buy. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more complete talent/production profile in the league going in his price range.
