Welcome to the Dynasty Mailbag! My goal is to bring you thoughts, insight, and research on the most current dynasty topics in the industry. Let’s dive deep into some tough-to-decipher scenarios and mess around with some fun “what ifs”. Curious about submitting a question or topic suggestion? Check out our Fantasy Life Community Discord.
Brandon Aiyuk Fallout
“Assuming Aiyuk is done in San Francisco, what happens to the value of the remaining playmakers?”
As of this writing, Brandon Aiyuk is still technically with the 49ers. However, if a deal goes through and he lands with the Steelers, or elsewhere, I think the rest of San Francisco's offense gets a decent bump.
One of the first-world problems issues with this offense in recent years has been the plethora of riches on the offensive side. Aside from Christian McCaffrey, whose volume was guaranteed each week, it was always a toss-up of who was going to erupt for fantasy managers between Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Aiyuk.
If Aiyuk leaves, Samuel and Kittle should both get bumps in usage. Kittle has been a bit of a boom/bust player throughout his career, but when he's on one, he's a league-winner. I'd expect a bit more consistency from him in the volume department.
Even last year, he was near the top of the position in terms of route percentage and air yards but could stand to see his target share creep up a bit more. If that happens, the sky's the limit.
Samuel could also flirt with WR1 upside with his blend of both rushing and receiving work. We have him ranked as our consensus WR15, but he should be firmly inside the top 12 if Aiyuk lands elsewhere.
Dynasty Startups
“What should those who are new to dynasty leagues expect for start-up drafts, and how can we find value through trading during the startup draft?”
Dynasty startup drafts bring about a sense of excitement and anticipation that other league types just can't offer. You know you're in the midst of laying the foundation for your "forever" team, or at the least the team you'll carry with you for a while.
If you are brand new to dynasty, like the question suggests, I tend to caution against trading too often in your startup draft. If your league allows you to trade away (or for) future rookie picks one or two years down the road, I would hold those pretty tightly. It's not to say that you can't accrue decent value from making those trades, but learning to value a 2026 1st round pick versus a startup pick in 2024 are entirely different thought processes.
In your startup, build out your roster as best as you can. When in doubt, lean young and don't be afraid to load up on Year 1 and 2 WRs. They're a pretty safe bet to, at worst, maintain value year over year in the short term.
Compete vs Rebuild
“How do you determine when your team needs to rebuild?”
This is an excellent question and one that more dynasty managers should be asking themselves. However, before you can truly get a clear-cut answer, there's a bit of work you need to do. Here are my suggestions.
First, create a spreadsheet of your entire league. Put each manager across the top row and then each position across the left column. Then, fill in each roster so you have a nice visual of each team in one spot. Maybe even highlight their projected starters in one color and their top couple bench players in another color. Make sure to include future draft capital at the end.
This takes some time and does require regular updating but it gives you a quick snapshot of your league. Who are the top teams? What about the bottom teams?
Next, reflect on your previous season. Did you make the playoffs? The championship week? Or did you miss the playoffs altogether? But don't just focus on the record…look at total points scored and total points against. This gives you a more granular, but specific, picture of how your team performed.
Maybe you were a high-scoring team but constantly lost shootouts. Maybe you were a low-scoring team but had a strong record because you kept catching opponents on their down weeks. Once you have some more intel on the true state of your team, then you can make a more informed decision about where to go.
One more thing, never get caught in the middle. Commit to going for that championship or commit to recouping draft capital and building your team that way.
Aging QBs
“Is Ryan Tannehill worth a hold in a 12-team SF dynasty league?”
If you have a deep enough bench, yes. That's the short answer. In this format, QBs naturally have more value because of the positional scarcity and overall lack of quality options. While Ryan Tannehill doesn't have a team yet, he's "only" 35 years old and just two years removed from consecutive top-12 finishes. When players like Jake Browning get pressed into service and do an admirable job of carrying both NFL and fantasy teams, we shouldn't be afraid to stash them in case we need them.
Star WRs Holding Out
“Do you have ANY trepidation about drafting Lamb or Chase at their ADP given their holdout/hold-in situations?”
I saved the easiest question, personally, for last. As of now, I have no issues or concerns surrounding either CeeDee Lamb or Ja'Marr Chase. While I might dislike the lack of progress in contract negotiations, I'm firmly convinced both will suit up for their respective teams Week 1 and continue to dominate for fantasy managers,
If you are concerned enough and want to pivot, I have no issues going with either Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, or Amon-Ra St. Brown at the receiver position.
