Welcome to the Dynasty Mailbag! My goal is to bring you thoughts, insight, and research on the most current dynasty topics in the industry.

Let’s dive deep into some tough-to-decipher scenarios and mess around with some fun “what ifs”. Curious about submitting a question or topic suggestion? Check out our Fantasy Life Community Discord.

Training Camp Hype

"What do you do with training camp hype? Do you use it to move those players right after a nice juicy blurb hits? Or do you play the long game with it and hope their value continues to rise?"

This is such a great question and is one that I sometimes struggle with. I think part of the broader issue here is that fantasy managers are so starved for news and updates on their favorite players that we tend to overreact to both positive and negative news.

Don't forget to take a breath, tune out the noise, and use the Fantasy Life Community Discord as your sounding board when you feel like making rash decisions.

Here are some past examples…

  • Remember when Justin Jefferson was running as the WR3 behind Bisi Johnson during training camp his rookie year?
  • How about when Ja'Marr Chase was struggling to catch an NFL football because it didn't have the white stripe like college footballs do?

Now those are some extreme examples, but it's important to stay rational when we hear news. I'm rarely a fan of trying to sell players in dynasty leagues when positive news pieces come out during training camp. However, I encourage people to pay attention to the news you start to hear more than once.

Often referred to as the "steady drumbeat" of news, keep your ears open. Are you hearing the same things from multiple sources over several days? Or is it just a one-off piece? The consistency matters. When in doubt, play the long game and stay patient.

Rookie Landmines

“While everyone is obsessed with asking who the next Puka is, I want to know who the next QJ is.”

It's always fun to look back and try to identify the next under-the-radar breakout candidate. I did that same thing when I tried to figure out this year's Puka Nacua. However, this question is asking me to take a look at the darker side of fantasy – highly drafted, highly touted rookies who…bust.

Quentin Johnston was the player used as the example. He was drafted by the Chargers with the 21st overall pick last year and went on to finish as the WR77. He clocked in at WR3 in our Rookie WR Model, so we were certainly high on him as a prospect as well.

Maybe the worst part about looking back is there weren't any red flags that really jumped off the screen.

Even looking back at his Dynasty Rookie Profile, nothing major jumped out. However, he was tabbed by Jonathan Fuller as having the widest range of outcomes of the top group of wideouts and he struggled a bit with his route running and beating press coverage.

When looking at this year's crop of wideouts, BrIan Thomas carries some of the same red flags. His draft capital (23rd overall) and landing spot (Trevor Lawrence) are great, but a closer look at his prospect profile leaves some room for concern.

Ian Hartitz talked about his lack of consistency as a route runner and how he didn't always play as big and strong as his physical frame would suggest. Johnston is also a big-bodied wideout who couldn't seem to fully take advantage of his physical traits.

This is not to say Thomas is a sure-fire bust, but based on his underlying metrics, there's at least reason for concern heading into this season.

Deep Dynasty Sleepers

“How are you valuing deep-stash rookies right now? Think like Tahj Washington types. What kind of exposure do you want to these kinds of guys?”

The answer to this question depends entirely on the size of your bench and subsequent taxi squad in your dynasty league. If you have a shallow bench, I am going to prioritize my limited slots to players who have more immediate, short-term value, even in dynasty leagues. I just don't have the luxury of space to be patient with deeper stashes.

However, if you have deep benches and maybe a taxi squad as well, by all means, load up on depth RBs and Day 3 WRs. I do want exposure if I have adequate space to do so. It really is an economic decision that comes down to the scarcity of my bench slots.

Fantasy vs Real Life

“Compare/contrast Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels to Justin Fields. Running QBs are a cheat code that rarely bust, but is there a way we can avoid drafting a guy who's great in fantasy but isn't quite good enough to keep a starting job?”

I had a really good conversation about this topic with Fantasy Life's Sam Holt last week during our Wednesday night Dynasty Hangout over on our Community Discord. We came up with a few different talking points when trying to break down the difference between a good fantasy asset and a good NFL QB.

First, from a fantasy perspective, we don't traditionally care how good their respective NFL team is, at least to a point. Jameis Winston is always the poster boy for "not great NFL QB" but was absolutely dynamite for fantasy. Back in 2019, Winston finished with this absurd line:

  • 33 TDs
  • 30 INTs
  • 5,109 passing yards
  • QB4

Tampa Bay finished that season 7-9. It was an amazing year for fantasy managers but there is not a single NFL team that wants their starting QB to throw 30 INTs in one season.

Justin Fields is another example. He finished as the QB7 back in 2022 but only threw for 2,242 yards and 17 TDs. He tacked on 1,143 rushing yards and eight scores but the Bears won three games that season. Great for fantasy, but terrible for the NFL.

That brings us to Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels. Thankfully for them, both have ample weapons around them. They shouldn't have to solely rely on their legs to help their teams win games. Specifically for Daniels, he was already a polished passer coming out of college.

The team environment matters and winning games matters even more. We might not care if our fantasy QBs are winning games on the field but we still should because, if they don't, they won't be the starting QB any longer.