With four weeks of action under our belts, Sam Wallace is dropping by to examine the Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook of four key players:

We have reached the quarter mark of the fantasy football season. With the first month complete, let's check in on the dynasty market to see which players have experienced the biggest rises and falls. More importantly, let's identify some actionable takeaways for dynasty managers.

Malik Nabers Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook - How High Is The Ceiling?

How high is too high to rank Malik Nabers in dynasty formats?

I try not to be a prisoner of the moment but it's hard to not get wildly excited about how Nabers has performed just four games into his NFL career.

While his utilization metrics are elite, even his box scores are a sight to behold.

  • Week 2 - 18 targets, 10 receptions, 127 yards, 1 TD
  • Week 3 - 12 targets, 8 receptions, 78 yards, 2 TDs
  • Week 4 - 15 targets, 12 receptions, 115 yards

 

How many wideouts can you confidently put above Nabers right now? In no particular order, I would have to say CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase. Marvin Harrison and Amon-Ra St. Brown both feel like they're right there as well. I can't imagine Nabers being any lower than WR6.

What about his offensive environment? We'll see how long his current HC/QB tandem lasts which could mean either good or bad for Nabers.

Currently the dynasty WR2 per KTC, Nabers literally can't get much more valuable. He'll have some down games as all players do but the only real concern you should have for him is how he'll fare in the post-Daniel Jones era. If the Giants end up rebuilding via the QB position, Nabers' value could take a hit.

Thankfully, he's already shown us that he's so talented that it probably doesn't matter who's throwing him the ball.

Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold Jameson Williams in Dynasty Leagues?

Finally. Finally! There have been few players I've written more about and have hyped up in recent years more than Jameson Williams. After an electric college football career and a disjointed start to his NFL career, Williams is healthy and playing like the type of player Detroit spent a first-round draft pick on a few years ago.

He's also rarely coming off the field and even ran 100% of the routes on Monday night. His target share could use some leveling off but his snap share and air yards are enough to warrant his spot in your starting lineup each week.

 

We'll likely see some boom/bust from him as we've already seen this season. He has three games with at least 79 receiving yards and just nine yards in his other game. His current mark of yards per catch (22.2) is right about where he was in his final season at Alabama (19.9) so we're seeing that skillset translate to the NFL.

Consistency will be a concern for Williams and his dynasty managers. Playing behind St. Brown will cap his weekly target total and we know the Lions thrive when they can establish the run behind their offensive line and the best backfield duo in football.

I feel the fears about Williams are still properly baked into his price. His dynasty value currently sits at WR30 which I think is still too low. Yes, sometimes he'll leave you wanting more on a given week but I'll trust that his production levels out a bit given that he's not just a rotational player. He's an every-down asset that dynasty managers can still acquire for below-market value.

Is It Time To Give Up On Trevor Lawrence?

This was supposed to be the year that Trevor Lawrence finally took that next step and entered the upper echelon of elite fantasy QBs. We might just have to stop talking about him as this otherworldly talent and reassess how we view him and the Jaguars now that we're into Year 4 of this experiment.

In his first three seasons, Lawrence has one top-12 QB finish (QB8 in 2022). Through Week 4 of this season, he has:

  • Four total passing TDs
  • Topped 180 passing yards once
  • Topped 15 PPR never
  • Topped 10 rushing yards once

 

Dating back to last season, Lawrence is 1-8 in his last nine games with their lone win coming against the Panthers in Week 17.

It's not like we didn't have hope entering this season. Fantasy Life projected Lawrence to finish as the QB14 to go along with almost 4,000 passing yards and 26 total TDs. It doesn't look like we're going to get there based on what we've seen so far.

From a dynasty perspective, you kinda have to choose your own adventure. I do believe Lawrence has the tools to succeed in the NFL and we've seen flashes of it throughout his career. He does need a clean pocket as his splits when pressured vs not are pretty wild.

  • Clean Pocket: 91.1 PFF grade, 7.3 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, eight interceptions
  • Under Pressure: 51.3 PFF grade, 6.4 yards per attempt, six touchdowns, six interceptions

He has the age, draft capital, and contract to warrant holding him or even buying him in Superflex dynasty formats. While his stock is definitely down (QB19 KTC), he's someone I am willing to remain patient with as we reframe our expectations of who he is both as an NFL and fantasy QB.

Is There Any Hope For Mark Andrews?

Where did it all go wrong? From 2019-2022, Mark Andrews averaged (per season):

  • 113 targets
  • 74 receptions
  • 940 receiving yards
  • 7 TDs
  • 15 games played

Then, last season, he only appeared in 10 games but still managed to average 13.5 points per game. However, this season has been an entirely different story.

It started with an astonishing Week 1 performance by teammate Isaiah Likely and then only got worse from there. Andrews has now gone consecutive weeks without a reception, tallying just TWO total targets in those two games. His underlying metrics aren't much better.

 

Dwain McFarland even stated this week that Andrews is now in a rotational role. It's amazing how quickly things can change.

So, what are dynasty managers supposed to do? There was no signal that Andrews' role would significantly change and I refuse to believe that he's simply not good at football anymore. His dynasty ranking is down at TE16 and I don't project it to go up anytime soon.

Honestly, at this point, all you can do is hold. I'd argue there's still a decent chance he has a few above-average/excellent games this season, but maybe that's just wishful thinking at this point.

If you're more bullish than that, he's the ideal buy-low candidate right now. The TE position continues to be a desolate hellscape so let's hope that Andrews can turn it around soon.