Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings vs. Consensus: Rookie Edition
With the NFL Draft and the majority of free agent signings behind us, dynasty fantasy football rankings have started to solidify. My first few dynasty rookie drafts are underway so I have spent a lot of time comparing my ranks to the Fantasy Life consensus rookie ranks to ensure I'm comfortable with the players I am higher and lower on.
As I dug in, a handful of players stood out to me as guys I intentionally wanted to be targeting and fading. This article lays out my reasoning for each.
Rookies I'm Higher On Than Consensus Rankings
Brock Bowers, TE - Raiders
Ironically, Bowers is the first player I'm notably higher on because I recently wrote about him not having a great landing spot for producing in 2024.
I stand by the opinion that Las Vegas was not nearly as good of a landing spot as he could have had, but I'm not going to penalize him for it much in dynasty leagues.
Bowers is a truly great TE prospect. He checks all the boxes we look for in a prospect: early breakout age, elite production at a major college program, athleticism, and first-round draft capital.
I don't want to pass on a rare caliber of player just because I'm a bit worried about his short-term situation. Things can change quickly in the NFL (see Houston) so I want to prioritize getting the most talented players on my dynasty roster.
Dwain McFarland's rookie TE Super Model goes back to 2018 and Bowers is the third-highest-rated TE prospect since then. He compiled more than 2,500 receiving yards while playing alongside several other future NFL pass-catchers at Georgia and had a ludicrous 13 receiving TDs as a true freshman. Georgia even used the man on jet sweeps when they had no shortage of talented players to give the ball to.
Bowers is a stud and sometimes we need to just take the best player available towards the top of our rookie drafts. Once Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are off the board, I am targeting Bowers pretty much regardless of what I have at the TE position.
He has the potential to turn into the type of player you have to trade a ridiculous amount to acquire in dynasty leagues in the near future.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB - Packers
I was higher than consensus on Lloyd throughout the entire pre-draft process. Landing behind Josh Jacobs in the Packers' backfield may not have been ideal, but the fact that he got third-round draft capital in today's NFL was a pretty encouraging sign of how the Packers view him.
I do believe Jacobs is firmly entrenched as the starter, but Lloyd never profiled as a workhorse RB anyway. He's an explosive playmaker who will make defenders miss and has the potential to contribute in the passing game as well. In case you have any concerns about Lloyd's ability to get on the field in 2024, just listen to this clip from the Packers' OC.
Lloyd should have some fantasy-relevant weeks in 2024 and he comes with great contingent value if Jacobs misses time. Looking forward, Jacobs' contract is effectively a two-year deal so if Lloyd flashes this season like I expect him to, he has a good chance to work into a larger role in 2025 and beyond.
This is largely a bet on talent, but Green Bay is also a young, ascending offense that I want to have pieces of in all formats.
Roman Wilson, WR - Steelers
Right behind Lloyd in my rankings is Roman Wilson who was selected by Pittsburgh in the third round. His college production won't wow you, but he was efficient on a per-route basis and proved his speed at the NFL Combine.
He played in a very run-heavy Michigan offense and could have a similar experience in Pittsburgh, but I don't think that's a huge issue for his fantasy value. The big question is whether or not he can win a job in two WR sets, and I'm betting that he can.
I'm encouraged by Pittsburgh's track record of drafting WRs which makes me feel even more confident in my talent evaluation. Add in the fact that he is a tough, physical player who should fit in well with the Steelers' offense and I expect him to move up the depth chart quickly. He does profile as primarily a slot receiver, but he played nearly 40% of his snaps in college from a wide alignment, so I believe he has the versatility to play multiple roles as needed for Pittsburgh.
Wilson can win at all three levels and isn't afraid to work over the middle of the field. He excels on crossing routes which should be something we see plenty of in Pittsburgh as Arthur Smith uses play action to create opportunities for his WRs on those longer developing routes.
They may not rank very highly in total pass attempts, but with George Pickens the only established pass-catcher in the offense there should be enough targets for Wilson to carve out a meaningful role.
Rookies I'm Lower On Than Consensus Rankings
Jayden Daniels
This is the only player on this list that makes me uncomfortable and has me second-guessing my ranking. I think Jayden Daniels has a high ceiling for fantasy football but I have some concerns about his durability and staying power as an NFL QB.
Part of this ranking difference also comes down to how we value positions for 1QB dynasty leagues.
I still have Daniels as my QB2 in the class, but I have him ranked after Brian Thomas and Jonathon Brooks who our other rankers have Daniels ahead of. If your team is desperate for a QB, I could see a case for taking Daniels over those guys but I would prefer to trade for a veteran QB and draft the WR or RB instead.
While Daniels has a very exciting profile (electric rusher who throws deep) there are also real red flags to be aware of. He was a fifth-year breakout who had an elite group of WRs to throw to at LSU.
His legs should give him a high floor for fantasy purposes, but if he struggles as a passer we could be looking at another Justin Fields situation in a few years. I'm not willing to invest too highly in that type of player when QB production can be had pretty cheaply in 1QB dynasty leagues.
Malachi Corley, WR - Jets
Corley got pretty strong draft capital when the Jets took him with the first pick of the third round. He also appears to be a pretty good athlete who plays with real physicality. Unfortunately, the things I like about his profile pretty much end there.
His raw production numbers were pretty good at Western Kentucky but if we look closer there are several red flags.
Corley relied heavily on creating yards after the catch with a career aDOT of just 6.3 yards while playing exclusively in the slot. In a vacuum, those aren't huge issues, but when evaluating a player coming from a small school I am usually looking for a more complete profile.
If Corley is truly an NFL-caliber receiver, he should have dominated that level of competition. Instead, he was basically a gadget guy who got almost all of his targets close to the line of scrimmage. He may be able to have some success in a similar role as a pro, but that is not something I want to pay up for in my dynasty leagues.
Looking beyond the concerns I have with his prospect profile, Corley didn't land in that great of a situation either. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is a good QB, but Corley is unlikely to be higher than the fourth or fifth option in the offense as a rookie. We also don't know what the QB position in New York will look like long-term. This combination of an uninspiring profile with an uncertain situation has me avoiding Corley at his current cost in rookie drafts
Xavier Legette, WR - Panthers
I understand why some people are really high on Xavier Legette. He has a rare combination of size and speed as well as some truly electric highlights in his final season at South Carolina. Getting first-round draft capital is also a big boost to his prospect profile, but I still find it hard to buy in.
Legette had virtually no production in his first four college seasons which is the biggest possible red flag in my book. His 2023 campaign was impressive but I'm always going to temper expectations for a fifth-year breakout. Legette is a good athlete but not a polished receiver and he landed on the NFL's worst passing offense from last season.
I do have some hope that Carolina can take a step forward this season with better weapons and a new coaching staff, but there are too many other rookies I would rather bet on. I view Legette as something of a developmental prospect which isn't great considering he is already 23 years old. He may be able to deliver some highlight plays thanks to his strength and speed, but I don't see a player who can consistently command targets.
If he falls to the late second round of my rookie drafts I would be happy to take a swing based on his athleticism, but I don't expect that to happen so I'm also perfectly comfortable to come away from my rookie drafts with zero shares of Legette.
