The NFL Draft is a month behind us, and offseason workouts have started up across the league. Now that the incoming rookies have found their new homes, let's check back in on the dynasty stock market. 

Here are some of the biggest risers and fallers over the past month as well as suggestions for how to approach each unique situation.

Dynasty Stock Up

Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders TE

With their third of three second-round picks, the Washington Commanders selected TE Ben Sinnott (53rd overall). Zach Ertz is the only viable option at the position in Washington, and he's not getting any younger (or healthier).

The biggest offseason acquisition for this team was certainly Jayden Daniels, whom they drafted No. 2 overall. With a decently talented WR room, how much should we expect from Sinnott both this year and moving forward?

Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson should be the top two target earners in this offense, especially with the departure of Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas, who combined for 169 targets in 2023. Washington also swapped out Antonio Gibson for Austin Ekeler, so there's a new pass-catching RB in town as well.

Despite all the moving pieces, Sinnott could still be the biggest winner here. The Kansas State product does possess high-end athletic traits:

  • 76th percentile 40-yard dash (4.68)
  • 76th percentile speed score (103.7)
  • 98th percentile burst score (133.0)
  • 94th percentile agility score (11.05)
  • 96th percentile catch radius (10.36)

The Commanders also have a substantial amount of their passing volume available from last season. Here's how they rank among NFL teams in the following categories:

  • Air yards: 1,538 (5th)
  • Air yards %: 35.5% (6th)
  • Targets: 274 (3rd)
  • Target %: 43.1% (3rd)

All of this has led to Sinnott rocketing up draft boards, where he's currently the TE14 in dynasty formats, Sinnott has established himself a near must-draft in startup drafts.

Dynasty ADP Ben Sinnot

For those who play in devy leagues, or for the degenerates who have their rookie drafts before the NFL Draft, kudos to you if you landed Sinnott before his price spiked.

If you need more reason to be in on Sinnott, Pete Overzet tabbed him "a poor man's version of what Sam LaPorta did as a rookie".

Sinnott checks in at TE2 in our Rookie TE Model behind only Brock Bowers. Sinnott steps into a situation that is ripe for opportunity, and he gets to grow alongside Daniels and the rest of this offense.

It might not pay off in Year 1 (remember to be patient with rookie TEs), but Sinnott is someone who could certainly become a priority target for this new-look Commanders offense. Draft him with confidence in both rookie and dynasty startup drafts this offseason.

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills WR

The Buffalo Bills kicked off Round 2 of the NFL Draft by selecting WR Keon Coleman. The rookie steps into an ideal offensive environment with a massive opportunity in front of him. The Bills are among the league leaders in vacated passing volume from last season. Here's how they rank among NFL Teams in available targets and air yards:

  • Air yards: 3,353 (1st)
  • Air yards %: 73.3% (1st)
  • Targets: 317 (2nd)
  • Target %: 54.7% (2nd)

Losing both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis is going to leave a significant hole in the offense. Let's hope Coleman is up to the task from Day 1.

In his prospect profile, Chris Allen noted the following about Coleman's college production:

Because Coleman produced (relative to his target rate) for two consecutive seasons, we can place more confidence in his body of work than in his classmates'. And it’s not like Coleman didn’t see his fair share of high-end coverage. So even as a boom-bust WR3 with a plan for development, Coleman’s physical gifts should be worth the investment to any squad.

Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) sprints down the field towards the end zone. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the Miami Hurricanes 27-20 on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023.

Coleman checks in at WR6 in the Rookie WR Model and is actually the second-youngest player in his class behind only Malik Nabers.

There's also ample reason to get excited in best ball leagues, not just dynasty formats. Pete even highlighted him as an early ADP target for Underdog best ball drafts.

The best thing about Coleman right now isn't even his on-field ability. He's already making waves as one of the most authentic, genuine rookies in the league and the amazing clips just keep coming. I love it when players are so easy to cheer for.

Coleman is the WR32 in dynasty right now and, honestly, we could see his ADP continue to climb the boards in the coming weeks and months.

While it's awesome to see him climbing the ranks, I do want to offer a word of caution. Pete mentioned the following in his aforementioned piece:

I have my concerns about Coleman as a prospect, but his draft capital alone vaulted him up to WR6 in Dwain's Rookie WR model. Coleman is the exact archetype of pick that I described in the intro. I know I am not going to want to click him in Round 7 or Round 8 (where he's headed), so I need to get my shares now, otherwise I'll end up with zero (which doesn't feel great either).

If Coleman gets too expensive, I might try to trade down within a larger tier. According to the Rookie WR Model, he's near the top of a tier that consists of seven players. If I can acquire a similar player for a cheaper cost and stack future draft capital on top of it, I'll strongly consider it.

Dynasty Stock Down

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders TE

Aside from the Michael Penix Jr. selection, the Raiders taking Brock Bowers 13th overall was one of the most surprising (and disappointing) draft selections. Talk about absolutely nuking the value of second-year option Michael Mayer.

As a rookie, Mayer posted a modest line of 27-304-2 on 40 targets. It was admittedly frustrating for managers who watched Dalton Kincaid and/or Sam LaPorta go on to have much more successful rookie seasons but there was always a feeling of optimism, especially in dynasty.

Now the dynasty community doesn't know what to do with Mayer, and it shows.

The draft giveth, and the draft taketh away. Such is the case for Mayer, who now finds himself as the TE20 in dynasty despite being a low-end TE1 just a few months ago.

The Rookie TE Model database goes back to 2018. Since then, only T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts have posted better model scores than Bowers. The rookie is certainly going to get his fair shot at the lead role this season, but we could see both of these guys on the field at the same time.

Here's a solid argument for the Raiders potentially running more 12 personnel from ESPN Stats & Information:

"The Raiders ranked 31st in the NFL in running 12 personnel under then-coach/offensive play caller Josh McDaniels in 2022, lining up in the formation on just 5.0% of their plays. They were 24th (14.2%) under McDaniels and interim OC Bo Hardegree last season.

The Bears, with Getsy, were 21st (17.0%) in plays run in 12 personnel in 2022 but jumped to eighth last season, running 23.2% of their plays with two tight ends.

Combining the two seasons, the Bears had the 12th-highest percentage (20.3) of plays run out of 12 personnel, the Raiders ranked 29th (9.5%)."

I suppose there's a case to be made that not all is entirely lost for Mayer. Actually, he's priced at a point now where I would be more than happy taking him as my TE2 in a dynasty startup draft or even trading for him this offseason. We know things can change quickly in the NFL; Mayer will continue to grow and develop and all he needs is a chance.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs WR

Rashee Rice's off-field incidents are starting to pile up, and the dynasty community has begun reacting accordingly.

There is no one right answer for what to do with Rice in your dynasty leagues with so much up in the air here. Still, I would be holding barring a significant offer from a league mate.

Once as high as WR18 in dynasty formats, Rice is now outside the top-40 at his position.

We even saw his ADP dip below the top 50 for a moment at the beginning this month. That's quite the swing for someone who was a top-20 pick.

If you are looking to draft Rice in a dynasty startup, I am fine taking him at this price point or even a touch higher (like as a WR3). I would not currently feel comfortable reaching higher than that until I definitely know what any sort of punishment will end up being.

With Tavis Kelce, Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy all available for Patrick Mahomes, I'm not going to take on more risk than needed with Rice.

The biggest question people have is if they should look to trade for Rice if they don't currently roster him. I've usually been on the "no" side of that unless the rookie pick they are trading away is outside the top 15 or so, but most offers have been for either a late first or early second.

If you have Rice, hold him. If you don't, generally stay away. If you're looking to draft him in a startup, only do so as your WR3 or later.