Welcome to a new segment called Dynasty Mailbag! The goal is to bring you thoughts, insight, and research on the most current dynasty topics in the industry. Player news, trade topics, and dynasty strategy and game theory are all on the table. Let’s dive deep into some tough-to-decipher scenarios and mess around with some fun “what ifs”. Curious about submitting a question or topic suggestion? Check out our Fantasy Life Community Discord.
Tony Pollard SZN
“Pollard…You believe in him this season or does the injury/new OC hinder your expectations?”
Tony Pollard has been a bit of an enigma for fantasy managers. We’ve seen flashes of massive upside when given the chance, but he’s been buried behind Ezekiel Elliot his entire career.
With Zeke officially out of town (for now) and a wasteland of a depth chart behind him, I am wheels up for Pollard this season.
He’s our consensus RB7 at Fantasy Life, and he possesses the coveted blend of rushing and receiving that truly separates the elite tailbacks from the field. Pollard has increased his rushing attempts, targets, receptions, and receiving yards in four straight seasons. He capped it off by finishing as the RB8 in PPR formats last year before suffering a high-ankle sprain and fractured fibula in the postseason.
Jan 16, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) rushes the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half during the wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
He appears set to be ready for training camp, so there should be no concern about his availability for Week 1.
Earlier this offseason, Head Coach Mike McCarthy said:
Kellen (Moore) wants to light the scoreboard up, but I want him to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense…I don’t desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league. I want to be the No. 1 team in the league with the number of wins and a championship. And if we’ve got to give up some production and take care of the ball a little better to get that, then that’s what we’ll do because we have a really good defense.
Referencing now-Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, McCarthy clearly wants to “establish it” this season, and Pollard figures to be the primary beneficiary.
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Streaming TEs
“Thoughts on Greg D breaking out in Denver as a top ten TE?”
As a rookie, Greg Dulcich appeared in just 10 games and posted a line of 33 / 411 / 2 on 55 targets. Despite the small-ish sample size, we did see exciting glimpses of upside. Six of his 33 receptions went for 20+ yards, and three went for 30+ yards. He also finished with 7+ PPR points in seven games, so there was at least a semblance of consistency.
Sean Payton was brought in to turn the ship (and Russell Wilson) around, and history is on his side. Payton also seems impressed with Dulcich, and word has gotten out that “Payton plans to use Dulcich in a joker role, lining him up at multiple spots to create mismatches”.
Ian Hartitz did note that “Dulcich was the third-worst run-blocking TE in 2022 per PFF, so he doesn’t necessarily profile as an every-down option even if he leads all Denver TEs in targets and receiving stats”. So tossing a bit of cold water on the narrative isn’t unreasonable.
A top-10 finish is certainly plausible, given he’s our consensus TE14. However, as Ian mentioned in his Broncos Team Preview, I prefer even later-round options (Gerald Everett) if that’s the route my roster build goes.
The Aaron Jones Conundrum
“What is it about Aaron Jones I’m missing? I think he’s an RB1 easy but he is going in the 5th, someone explain.”
This question has more of a redraft/best ball spin, but the dynasty angle applies as well.
Aaron Jones has finished as an RB1 in four straight seasons. Despite seeing his rushing TD count drop each year since 2019 (16, 9, 3, 2), Jones has topped 63 targets and 47 receptions annually in that span.
At 28 years old, there’s reason enough to be concerned in dynasty formats. However, his dynasty ADP is down to RB27, so I’ve actually begun buying him back in my dynasty leagues. He’s the ideal “rental” for a year or two to maximize your championship window.
Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) is shown is shown during organized team activities Tuesday, May 23, 2023 in Green Bay, Wis.
As for this season, Ian Hartitz noted the following in his Packers Team Preview:
Absolutely nothing about Jones’s performance in 2022 indicated a serious decline is imminent:
- PFF rushing grade: 90.7 (No. 2 among 33 qualified RB)
- Yards per carry: 5.3 (No. 1)
- Yards after contact per carry: 3.2 (No. 10)
- PFF receiving grade: 64.6 (No. 12)
- Yards per route run: 1.25 (No. 8)
- Elusive Rating: 71.4 (No. 8)
Yes, the post-Aaron Rodgers era projects to have fewer scoring opportunities and an overall decline in offensive production, but I am in on Jones as our RB16 in redraft and the RB27 in dynasty. There’s certainly a path to Jones extending his streak of top-12 finishes to five years.
Trade of the Week
This trade (and topic) is specific to Superflex leagues. If you are unsure of what a Superflex (SF) league is, it’s a league where you have an extra starting roster spot that can be used for any position (QB, RB, WR, TE). Most dynasty managers will use this slot for a second QB.
A common question/conundrum I see facing dynasty managers is navigating the QB position in those SF leagues. Due to the natural scarcity of the position (there are only 32 starters on a given week until you hit those pesky bye weeks), the value of QBs is sky-high.
If you have an elite option or two, you’re set. If you don’t…well, it gets a bit tougher. Trading for a top-end QB in this format can be tricky, but I found a great example of someone pulling it off.
This was submitted by a Fantasy Life Community Discord member this week.
@Bohum paid for it, but he locked up arguably the dynasty QB1 in Patrick Mahomes. Let’s break it down.
Even without knowing the context of either roster, this is the type of “back up the Brinks truck” type of deal you have to make to secure an elite QB.
First, you’re going to have to send a QB back. That’s non-negotiable. Justin Fields is the dynasty QB8 on KTC, and he’s viewed as a young, ascending talent with the coveted rushing floor/ceiling. Second, you’ll need to send either multiple future rookie first-round picks, several startable players, or a combination of the two.
@Bohum went with the second option and sent Nick Chubb, Jaylen Waddle, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Those are the current dynasty RB12, WR5, and WR11 respectively. To summarize, he sent FOUR players who are all ranked inside the top 12 at their respective positions to land Mahomes.
Some managers don’t have the constitution (or roster flexibility) for those types of moves. Some do.
While this trade was centered around Mahomes, he also got back Jordan Addison (WR17) and Diontae Johnson (WR37). Alexander Mattison (RB22) felt like a toss-in from a dynasty perspective, as his value is much more limited to the short term.
If you want to get a deal done for a top-end QB, here’s the blueprint. Nice work, @Bohum.
