With the Super Bowl behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the 2023 rookie class.
Anthony Richardson
- Rookie Draft ADP: 19 (& rising)
- Underdog ADP: 152.2 (& rising)
- Mock Draft V2: 5th overall (Titans, via trade)
- Landing Spot: Indianapolis Colts (4th Overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Richardson vaults into the “has-potential-QB1-upside” discussion after the Colts selected him on Day 1. The former Gator only has to contend with Gardner Minshew (who signed a $3.5M GTD free-agency deal) and Nick Foles for the starting job. Plus, Richardson will be under the guidance of head coach Shane Steichen who aided in Jalen Hurts' development in ‘22. At worst, we should expect to see a weekly game plan tailored to Richardson’s athletic strengths giving him a viable fantasy floor.
But don't be too surprised by missteps early on in the season. Richardson's inaccuracies (which need context) can be fixed via time and training. Plus, he'll have high-end separators like Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs fielding his throws. Richardson's rushing ceiling alone will make him a popular target in redraft and best ball formats.
Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: Mid to high-end QB2
Summary
Anthony Richardson was a one-year starter at the University of Florida who declared for the NFL draft after his junior year. He is the most physically gifted QB of the class and oozes fantasy upside.
Pros
He tested as the single most athletic QB in the history of the combine (1st of 868). Richardson scored a perfect 10 RAS (relative athletic score) after showing up to the combine at 6’4, 244 lbs, he set the record for both the broad and vertical jumps and also clocked a blazing 4.44 forty-yard dash.
I can hear it now…
“Who cares how high a QB can jump? That won’t help him play the position in the NFL.”
Fair points. QBs aren’t graded for their ability to leap vertically. However, these testing numbers show just how explosive Richardson has the potential to be at the NFL level.
On the field, Richardson has shown a massive ceiling.
He has a cannon for an arm, and there isn't a throw he can’t make. While his rushing ability is a huge strength, he doesn't rely on it. He is able to sense pressure, with a strong feel for the pocket, while also keeping his eyes downfield.
He has flashed pinpoint accuracy when he has his feet underneath him but needs to work on the consistency of his footwork.
Cons
During Richardson’s college career, he displayed a massive ceiling and tons of legit upside, but overall, he lacked consistency. If you watched his game against Utah you would think he was the slam dunk first-overall pick. On another tape, you would say he isn't a first-round prospect.
While he has elite arm strength, he needs to work on consistently throwing with touch, getting his feet underneath him, and completing the easy passes.
If he is able to improve his accuracy, the next step in his development is improving his ability to manipulate defenses with his eyes. His running ability will lead to teams playing heavy zone coverage against him. He has reportedly interviewed well, a very encouraging sign of his maturity and his ability to take the next step in his development.
Mar 4, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson (QB11) participates in drills at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy Upside
As soon as Richardson touches the field, he will be in the QB1 conversation due to his rushing upside.
At Florida, he had touchdown runs of 45, 60, 73, 80, and 81 yards. Only Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields currently possess that type of rushing upside on a weekly basis.
While a team may draft him and give him time to develop, he is worth attacking in best ball drafts due to his massive ceiling, and he is my slam-dunk QB1 in dynasty formats.
His most likely landing spots are: Seahawks, Panthers, and Colts.
Betting Angle
Richardson has offered plenty of value during the draft process at long odds to go first overall, as high as 100-1 two months ago, but the value is now gone.
Currently, on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can bet on the team that drafts Richardson, with the Seahawks at +425 being my favorite bet on the board, even with Geno Smith’s new contract.
You can also get $200 instantly in bonus bets by betting $5 on any market (Anthony Richardson included) when you create a new DraftKings Sportsbook account. Click below to claim your $200 and make your bet on Richardson.
Odds accurate at the time of publication
