With the Super Bowl behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the incoming 2023 rookie class. Eliot Crist discusses the pros and cons of Bijan Robinson as a dynasty prospect and whether the hype is warranted.
Bijan Robinson
- Rookie Draft ADP: 1
- Underdog ADP: 6.7
- Mock Draft v3: 10th overall (Falcons)
- Rookie RB Super Model: 1st
- Landing Spot: Atlanta Falcons (8th overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Arthur Smith got his guy, and the Falcons now have the makings of a potentially elite skill position group. Robinson should slot in as the lead back right away despite the success of Tyler Allgeier last season.
There are very few, if any, doubts about Robinson's talent and now we can feel confident in his year 1 workload. Arthur Smith is known for featuring a workhorse RB and we should see Robinson get all the work he can handle as a rookie.
The Falcons were one of the most effective rushing teams in the NFL last season, they have an inexperienced QB, and they play in one of the weakest divisions in football. It only makes sense that they will lean on their run game and try to make a playoff push with the formula that Arthur Smith saw succeed in Tennessee.
Robinson is already going in the first round of best ball drafts and he isn't going to get any cheaper. The opportunity cost is high but we could easily be talking about him as the undisputed 1.01 in fantasy drafts by this time next year.
Way-too-early 2023 redraft value: Locked-and-loaded RB1
Summary
At 5’11 and 215 lbs. with 4.46 speed, it's as if Bijan Robinson were built in a lab to play RB. With elite athleticism and college production, Robinson is a near-lock to be the first RB selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. If he's not, it would be a bigger upset than Purdue's loss to Fairleigh Dickinson in the NCAA tournament.
Pros
The phrase “generational prospect” gets thrown around too often these days, but such an accolade is well-deserved when it comes to Robinson.
The 2022 All-American and Doak Walker Award winner finished fourth all-time in rushing at Texas, sandwiched between future Hall of Famer Jamaal Charles and current Hall of Famer Earl Campbell.
Robinson's production at Texas was due to a rare combination of size and speed, one that dreams are made of for RBs. But Robinson is more than just an elite athlete. On top of his superb acceleration and top-end speed, Robinson has excellent vision and contact balance.
As a result, Robinson can run through arm tackles, and he can make defenders miss in the open field, consistently showing the ability to stack moves. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), his 104 missed tackles forced last season led all college RBs, and 1,071 of Robinson's 1,575 rushing yards came after contact.
In addition to being an outstanding runner, Robinson possesses elite traits as a pass-catcher as well. Robinson has a developed route tree, soft hands, and big play ability, so he can play all three downs and never needs to come off the field. It's rare to find a RB that can all do the things Robinson can as both a runner and receiver.
Even with the NFL starting to devalue the RB position, Robinson is locked in as a first-round selection in this year's draft. In fact, NFL Draft expert Daniel Jeremiah has Robinson ranked as the third-best overall prospect in this rookie class.
Cons
Finding a weakness in Robinson's game is no easy feat. He is the most complete prospect in the 2023 draft class, and the only real negative is the lack of value NFL teams now place on the RB position as a whole.
If you really want to nitpick his game, Robinson has room to improve as a pass-protector, and he'll need to develop his ability to pick up free blitzers at the pro level. This is a common skill set that rookies lack expertise in, but it's something that Robinson should be able to develop with experience and coaching.
Fantasy Impact
The last two RBs who shared the kind of elite draft profile that Robinson has were were Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. Each of them broke the record for the highest fantasy score by a rookie RB, Elliott with 309.4 points (in 0.5 PPR formats) in 2016 and Barkley with 340.3 points in 2018.
Robinson is already being drafted 13th overall on Underdog Fantasy as the No. 4 RB, so early best ball drafters are clearly aware of his massive fantasy upside. The only issue is that he carries quite a bit of risk at that ADP.
No one will argue that Robinson's ceiling is the top overall fantasy player in 2023 in the right landing spot. If a team like the Eagles, Falcons, Bengals, or Chargers were to draft Robinson, fantasy GMs will be jumping for joy.
However, it's possible that Robinson could end up in a worse landing spot, in which case his current best ball ADP would be overvalued by multiple rounds. Looking at some of the top teams favored to draft him, it's possible that Robinson could end up competing for touches with a RB like Alvin Kamara, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, or Brian Robinson.
While his talent would shine through, a timeshare would make it nearly impossible for Robinson to pay off his current ADP. As a result, I'm underweight on the star RB prospect at his current Underdog ADP in the early second round.
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