Dynasty Rookie Profile: Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman

• Underdog ADP: 212.1
• Rookie ADP: 25 (WR11)
• WR Rookie Model Percentile: 63rd
• Landing Spot: Cleveland Browns (74th overall)

Fantasy Outlook

Cedric Tillman at least got Day 2 draft capital which should keep dynasty managers hopeful for his long-term outlook. However, Tillman's short-term prospects look bleak.

Deshaun Watson closed out ‘22 with a bottom-10 rank in both EPA per play and CPOE. His lengthy hiatus from the field may be the cause, but he’ll need to get back to form in order to support multiple receiving options on a run-first offense. Meanwhile, Tillman's spot on the depth chart is another issue.

The Browns traded for Elijah Moore to serve as a complement to Amari Cooper while Donovan Peoples-Jones operates on the perimeter. And David Njoku is still kicking around as a downfield threat. As a result, Tillman needs a schematic shift and multiple injuries to see the field. Without a clear path to looks, Tillman remains, at best, a dart throw in fantasy.

Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: Waiver-wire target

Summary

A three-star high school recruit, Tillman played just six games through his first three college seasons. He broke out in a big 2021 season with 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he was on pace for a big senior season before it was cut short due to an ankle injury. 

Standing at 6’3" and 213 lbs., the receiver out of Tennessee is expected to be selected on day two of the NFL draft. 

Pros

Tillman has the size that NFL teams covet, in a draft class that lacks your prototypical X receivers. Using NFL Mock Draft Database to determine the consensus top 100 receivers, Tillman is one of only three receivers in the top 100 who stands above 6’1".

Tillman is not just big, he is fast—with a 79th percentile speed score, Tillman consistently made plays down the field for the Vols. He averaged 11.3 yards per reception this past season, and over his career, he had a 74th-percentile aDOT (15.8) and 29% deep target rate. 

While teammate Jaylin Hyatt gets the most hype, it was Tillman when healthy who led the team in targets. He attacks the ball at its highest point, using his massive catch radius to consistently make plays in traffic.

Dec 30, 2021; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Cedric Tillman (4) catches a touchdown pass as he is defended by Purdue Boilermakers cornerback Jamari Brown (7) during the first half during the 2021 Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Big play ability rarely goes ignored, especially when it comes out of the SEC. 

In Tillman's breakout junior year, his 16.9 yards per catch ranked second in the conference behind first-round pick Jameson Williams and just ahead of another first-round pick in Treylon Burks. Tillman has a real chance to sneak into the second round, and draft capital like that from a Power 5 school cannot go ignored.

While he battled an injury last year and was not the same player, he did impress scouts with his toughness. From NFL.com:

“Big-time gamer. He had a high ankle sprain against Akron and was never close to 100 percent after that but he did everything he could to get back on the field and help his team instead of shutting it down.” — National Scout for an AFC team

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Cons

While there is plenty to like about Tillman, there are also reasons to be concerned.

He barely touched the field prior to his RS junior season, playing a total of six games and catching just eight total passes. While he did play behind three future NFL receivers in Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Joshua Palmer, a 28th-percentile breakout age leaves plenty of reasons for concern.

A five-year college athlete, Tillman will begin his rookie year at 23.4 years old. He will need to show early signs of success or the history of having a successful career will be against him.

The developmental curve could be an area he struggles with, as he has an underdeveloped route tree and can rely on his physicality at the catch point too much, something that gets much harder at the next level. 

Fantasy Impact

Over the last five drafts on average, 10.6 receivers get drafted in the first 64 picks. As the consensus WR9—and WR2 among X receivers—Tillman has a real chance to go higher than most people are expecting.

Looking at the SEC receivers who have gone in the second round in the last five years, only two players have been disappointments while many have become fantasy stars early.

Tillman didn’t just dominate the SEC—he did it against the top defenses in 2021 when he was fully healthy. Against Alabama, he had 7-152-1, and he destroyed the Georgia Bulldogs' number 1 defense in the country with a 10-200-1 stat line.

As the WR94 off the board in early drafts, Tillman is a risk-free dart throw that can pay off in a huge way if he gets the draft capital that supports early playing time.

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