Hendon Hooker
- Superflex Rookie Draft ADP: 20
- Underdog ADP: 216
- Landing spot: Detroit Lions (68th overall)
Fantasy Outlook
The Hendon Hooker first round steam unsurprisingly turned out to be false and he ultimately landed in Detroit with third round draft capital.
Dan Campbell has already acknowledged that 2023 will be a redshirt season for Hooker, but if he manages to win the starting job down the road the fantasy upside is tremendous. The Lions have the makings of an explosive offense and Hendon Hooker has the arm to put up big numbers in the right system.
Unfortunately for Hooker, his path to playing time is only partially under his control as the Lions may choose to extend Jared Goff. If that happens, Hooker could legitimately be in his late-20s by the time he gets his shot.
Dynasty managers must have a stomach for risk and a long-term view to take him in the second round of rookie drafts.
Summary
Hendon Hooker has been gaining steam in recent weeks as a potential first-round pick.
After spending his first three college seasons at Virginia Tech and only earning modest playing time, he decided to transfer to Tennessee for his final two seasons. After breaking out in 2021, he was a Heisman candidate for most of the 2022 season before he suffered an injury late in the year.
Year | Pass Yards | Completion % | Yards per attempt | Pass TDs |
2022 | 3,135 | 69.2% | 9.5 | 27 |
2021 | 2,948 | 68.1% | 9.7 | 31 |
While his production was very impressive, Hendon Hooker is a controversial prospect. He failed to hold onto the starting job at Virginia Tech and actually lost the initial QB position battle at Tennessee in 2021 before getting his chance to start and absolutely lighting it up.
There are definitely traits to like in Hooker’s game, but there are significant red flags to be wary of, too.
Let’s take a closer look at the strengths and weaknesses of his game and how they might translate to the NFL.
Pros
Big arm
Hendon Hooker can really throw the deep ball. On deep throws (20+ yards) last season, he ranked top 10 in the nation in yards, yards per attempt, average depth of throw, and touchdowns.
His ability to throw the ball deep was a key element of Tennessee’s explosive offense that led college football in yards per game and points per game. That skill set will be tempting for NFL teams who lack a vertical passing game right now and want to take a shot at upgrading their QB room without needing to spend a ton of draft capital.
Even better is the fact that he consistently generated explosive plays without putting the ball at risk. Per PFF, Hooker had zero turnover-worthy throws on his deep passes in 2022 and he finished his time at Tennessee with a remarkable 58:5 TD-to-INT ratio.
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Rushing upside
Hendon Hooker has legitimate upside as a rushing QB. In his two seasons at Tennessee, he compiled more than 1,300 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. He has good acceleration and was able to make defenders miss in the open field.
His rushing ability will be very important for Hooker’s value in fantasy football. If he gets the opportunity to start for an NFL team and he shows the same ability and willingness to run from college, he could deliver solid fantasy production without putting up prolific passing numbers.
Cons
Age
Hendon Hooker is older than Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts. He is also more than four years older than fellow rookie QB Anthony Richardson.
Not great for a prospect who still has some developing to do.
Age is less of a concern for career longevity at the QB position, but it’s still not great if your franchise QB is going to be nearly 30 when you are negotiating their second contract.
Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) celebrates his touchdown during a game between Tennessee and Missouri in Neyland Stadium, Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022. Volsmizzou1112 1595
The more important issue is development. Hooker has spent very little time playing in an NFL system, and there will almost certainly be a learning curve for what he will be asked to do in a pro offense.
It may be difficult for teams to justify spending a high draft pick on a player of his age who isn’t the finished article.
Injury
The issue of his age is compounded by the fact that he suffered a torn ACL in late November of last season. No matter how much a team likes Hendon Hooker, they will need to have another solid option at QB to start the season.
The result is that it looks unlikely he will play much, if at all, in 2023. If that happens, he could easily be 26 by the time he finally gets on the field.
Lastly, we also don’t know how much the knee injury will impact his ability as a rusher. Mobility is an important part of the upside case for Hooker, so this is yet another significant red flag in my book.
System-inflated stats
The Tennessee offense put up huge numbers the last two seasons under HC Josh Heupel. They ran a vertical spread offense that didn’t ask much from Hooker in terms of reading the defense and working through progressions.
He really benefited from the simplicity of what he was asked to do post-snap and was fortunate to have two NFL-caliber receivers in Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman who helped to boost the downfield passing numbers referenced earlier.
Not only was his production inflated, but not much of what he was asked to do in college will be translatable to the pro level. The system he played in may help him get drafted highly thanks to his gaudy stats, but it did very little to prepare him for being an NFL QB.
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Fantasy Impact
There are many unknowns surrounding Hendon Hooker, one of which is what level of draft capital he will receive later this month. At this point, the first-round draft steam seems like noise to me, but I could be wrong about that.
If he goes in the first round, it is safe to assume he will get more than one full season as a starter, which will make him a valuable commodity in superflex leagues.
It is difficult to see a scenario where Hendon Hooker is a great value in dynasty rookie drafts, but if he is able to fully regain his rushing ability and gets an extended run to prove himself as a starter, he could reward fantasy managers willing to draft him and remain patient.
If Hooker falls out of the first round of the NFL Draft as I expect, it will likely be an uphill battle for him to earn a shot as the clear starter wherever he ends up.
