Josh Downs
- Rookie Draft ADP: 16
- Underdog Fantasy ADP: 170.9
- Rookie Super Model Rank: 8
- Landing Spot: Indianapolis Colts (79th overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Josh Downs fell a bit relative to his expected draft capital and was ultimately the 12th WR off the board when the Colts selected him in the third round.
Downs will join fellow rookie Anthony Richardson in a new-look Colts offense under first year HC Shane Steichen.
It is difficult to see how Downs can offer much fantasy value in what projects to be a very run-heavy offense in 2023. For dynasty leagues, however, he has a chance to establish himself as one of the top pass catchers in an offense that lacks depth behind Michael Pittman, who is in the last year of his deal.
This season figures to be all about gaining experience for the young Colts, so I will be watching for signs of growing chemistry between Downs and Richardson that could point to a breakout in 2024.
Summary
Josh Downs is an undersized, but explosive slot WR. He broke out as a true sophomore at North Carolina and posted huge production in his final two seasons at Chapel Hill. He is also the nephew of former NFL star (and current Lions’ DB coach) Dre Bly, which is a fun trivia fact should their teams end up facing each other at some point.
Year | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns | YPRR |
2021 | 101 | 1,335 | 8 | 2.80 |
2022 | 94 | 1,029 | 11 | 2.17 |
The NFL Scouting Combine was a mixed bag for Downs. His measurables came in at 5’9” and 171 lbs which were underwhelming, but not unexpected.
Overall, he tested well with really strong numbers for his 10-yard split, vertical jump, and broad jump which backs up the explosiveness he shows on film. He may not have elite long speed, but he gets up to his top speed quickly, and that is more important for the role he is likely to play at the next level.
In a class full of smaller receivers, it is hard to know how much teams will penalize players who don’t have typical NFL size.
There is some risk that Downs could fall in the draft, but if he gets solid Day 2 draft capital as expected, then he will be a good option around the 1-2 turn in rookie drafts.
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Pros
Can create separation in an instant
As we established, Downs is a quick-twitch athlete who can accelerate in a flash. This allows him to create separation quickly and effectively.
He also does a good job varying the speed of his routes so he can take advantage of his burst to create separation from defenders at the right moment.
Downs’ footwork is incredibly clean, which eliminates wasted movement and helps him to get out of his breaks quickly and create separation at the catch point.
Creating timely separation is also an important factor in picking up yards after the catch. This skill was on display in 2021 when Downs finished third in the country with 754 total yards after the catch.
His ability to create separation against man coverage, along with his ability to rack up yards after the catch, are traits that QBs and coaches will value highly.
Mar 4, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; North Carolina wide receiver Josh Downs (WO14) participates in drills at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Plays bigger than he is
Despite his stature, Downs plays with a level of confidence and physicality you don’t see from many smaller WRs.
His contested catch numbers improved drastically from his sophomore to junior season, which is an encouraging sign for his NFL potential.
He is also willing to compete for the ball on routes over the middle and isn’t afraid of contact. This may pose problems for his career longevity but will be an asset when he is on the field.
His 22 career touchdowns are evidence of the fact that Downs isn’t your typical small slot receiver. He can win jump balls in the end zone and is willing to fight through defenders to finish the play.
Cons
Size may limit his role
I’m not super concerned about Downs’ size on its own, but there is a good chance he ends up as a slot-only player. The value of that kind of role varies widely from offense to offense. If Downs ends up on a team that uses 2 WR formations a lot, he could struggle to earn consistent snaps and targets as a result.
There is also a risk that he just doesn’t see downfield targets as a slot receiver, whether that is due to QB play or scheme. His vertical jump and contested-catch skills point to the fact that Downs can win downfield when given the opportunity, but receiving that opportunity is no sure thing.
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Fantasy Impact
With teams using 3+ WR formations more than ever, it’s the right time for a player like Downs to be entering the NFL. His skill set is much more valuable in the modern game than it would have been a decade ago.
Downs should have a nice floor in PPR leagues as a high-volume target, but his ceiling will only be unlocked if given a role in the vertical passing game.
A worst-case scenario would be that Downs is only utilized in the short passing game and running out of the slot. This would limit his high-value touches and give him a relatively low weekly ceiling.
Overall, Downs is a very good prospect with a few limiting factors. His upside isn’t the highest in this class but he has the tools to be a dynamic slot WR at the NFL level. He is currently the WR4 in Fantasy Life’s consensus rookie rankings.
