With the Super Bowl behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the incoming 2023 rookie class. Jonathan Fuller discusses the pros and cons of Kayshon Boutte as a dynasty prospect and what kind of fantasy impact he can make at the NFL level.
Kayshon Boutte
- Rookie Draft Ranking: 29
- Underdog ADP: 215
- Rookie WR Super Model: 43rd percentile (WR19)
- Landing Spot: New England Patriots (187th overall)
Fantasy Outlook
It turns out the NFL did not buy into Kayshon Boutte's blue chip recruit pedigree and he fell all the way to the sixth round. He will now have to fight for a roster spot in New England.
Fortunately for Boutte, the Patriots WR room is far from the most talented in the league so he has a decent shot of landing a roster spot if he shows any promise during the offseason program.
He has essentially no value for 2023 redraft purposes but is worth a late round flyer in dynasty leagues if you believe in his talent at all.
Summary
Few players have seen their stock rise and fall quite as much as Kayshon Boutte has over the course of his career. He was a top recruit coming out of high school and was expected to be the next in line of the great LSU receivers, following Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.
He lived up to the hype in his first season and was awarded freshman All-American honors as a result. After that, his production really dipped and he failed to live up to his billing as one of the top receivers in the country.
Year | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Yards per route run |
2022 | 48 | 538 | 2 | 1.49 |
2021 | 37 | 503 | 9 | 2.27 |
2020 | 45 | 735 | 5 | 2.38 |
Boutte will hope to put that chapter of his career behind him and find success in the NFL. The first step will be finding out where he will be playing on Sundays.
By this time next week we will know which team he is going to play for so let’s take this opportunity to dive deeper on his skill set and exactly what he will bring to his new NFL team.
Pros
Early breakout age
A popular indicator of future success when evaluating young prospects is how early a player breaks out in college. Boutte broke out as a true freshman and posted career-best numbers in most metrics that season.
The fact that he got worse from there is concerning, but we also can’t ignore that he put up impressive stats as a true freshman in the SEC. That production points to some level of ceiling for a player who is still a few weeks away from his 21st birthday.
It is worth noting that a lot of his freshman-year production came in a three-game stretch to end the season. From Weeks 14-16 Boutte hauled in 27 catches for 526 yards and 4 touchdowns, including an SEC-record 308-yard performance against Ole Miss.
Some people view that as a negative because so much of his production came in just a few games, but at the same time, very few players are capable of that level of dominance at all.
YAC Ability
One area that Boutte did consistently have success was in creating yards after the catch. He averaged more than 7.0 yards after the catch in his first two seasons and proved to be elusive with the ball in his hands, forcing 30 missed tackles in 27 career games.
This appears to be the most NFL-ready trait in Boutte’s game and there is some hope that he can have success early in his career if he lands on a team that can scheme him open touches and allow him to make plays after the catch.
Cons
Contested catch rate
Boutte’s contested catch numbers have been downright bad throughout his career. He primarily played on the outside for his first two seasons and failed to top a 40% contested catch rate in either season.
His numbers got slightly better in his final season, but he moved inside as a primary slot receiver and still only managed to secure five of his eleven contested targets.
This is concerning for his ability to win on his own at the next level. With the athletic limitations I will discuss next and his struggles in contested catch situations, it is difficult to see how Boutte can create big plays against NFL defenders.
Athleticism
Kayshon Boutte was arguably the biggest loser of the NFL Combine. Other than posting an adequate 40-yard dash time, his testing numbers were disappointing across the board. Most concerning were his vertical jump and broad jump numbers which were among the worst in the class and suggest a serious lack of burst and explosiveness.
Boutte doesn’t look like a bad athlete on film so there is a chance something just went wrong at the combine, but these results were bad enough that we have to adjust our priors and recognize that his draft stock will suffer due to his performance in Indianapolis.
Fantasy Impact
For anyone who plays in devy fantasy football leagues or follows college football closely, Kayshon Boutte has been a name to know for many years. The fact that he is entering the NFL as a relatively under-the-radar prospect seems strange.
The general consensus is that Boutte will be a Day 3 pick in the NFL Draft which gives him an uphill battle to becoming a reliable weapon in fantasy football.
His background and pedigree will make him an interesting selection late in rookie drafts if he falls far enough, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets overdrafted based on name value alone.
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