With the Super Bowl behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the incoming 2023 rookie class. Chris Allen discusses the pros and cons of Kendre Miller as a dynasty prospect and what kind of fantasy impact he can make at the NFL level.
Kendre Miller
- Rookie Draft Ranking: 12th overall (RB4)
- Underdog ADP: 150.9
- Rookie RB Super Model: 71st percentile
- Landing Spot: New Orleans Saints (71st overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Let's break it down by touch type.
In a normal game, Alvin Kamara would handle the majority of the early-down work. He took 205 of the 297 available first and second-down totes last season. Kamara would also take the passing-down snaps, as he was top 10 in YPRR for the third straight season. But maybe Kendre Miller could take some of those short-yardage touches away to gain some fantasy relevance.
However, the Saints signed Jamaal Williams in free agency. So, Miller sits as a redundant asset. His one saving grace: Kamara's looming suspension.
An absence of the RB1 would put Miller in the RB3 discussion by volume alone. We can't project him for targets, but early-down usage could be in his future as long as Kamara is out. Otherwise, Miller would be an ideal depth piece on any roster in case of an injury.
Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: RB4/5
Summary
Prospects at the top of the draft class have all of the seasonal value. Their projected draft capital gives us an idea of expected touches, and there’s at least some added certainty that they’ll meet their costs as fantasy assets. But you can’t win your league on expectations and “trust me, bro” type of assurances.
A key piece to every roster is depth. Backups or long shots should occupy the bench of your dynasty rosters in the hopes that they'll one day shield you from the inevitable trade or injury that can cripple your RB depth. Kendre Miller fits that mold for 2023.
Miller took over as TCU’s workhorse RB in his final season last year. He was 17th in rushing yards across the FBS, but an MCL sprain during the Fiesta Bowl kept him from any athletic testing, so we’ve got lingering injury concerns and a limited body of work to analyze.
However, despite the expected Day 3 draft stock, there’s enough to like about the 5’11, 215 lb. Miller to discuss his potential prospects at the NFL level.
Pros
Don't get in his way
As one of the bigger backs in this class, I wasn’t too concerned with Miller’s lack of speed. He can squeeze past defenders if he spots a crease, but Miller won't be breaking away for many long TDs.
The former Horned Frog had an average explosive run rate (26.2%), but his ability to leverage his frame to his advantage was my focus. And as a battering ram, Miller plowed through most of his peers.
Even in 2021, when Miller shared the backfield, he was the grinder of the group and led TCU's RBs in missed tackles forced and yards after contact per Pro Football Focus (PFF). And when his role expanded the following season in 2022, Miller continued to grind through his opponents.
The TCU product displayed exceptional contact balance that allowed him to reach the second level as well as the ability to power through a gap in short-yardage situations. Using a two-year sample, Miller was one of six RBs in the 2023 class who was above average in both yards after contact and forced missed tackles per attempt. Miller can be the ideal early-down complement for any NFL team's backfield.
Cons
Not a serious passing game option
Sure, you can find some highlights of Miller getting work as a receiver. He even scored this impressive receiving TD! But after looking at his average depth of target (aDOT) and considering the level of competition he faced at TCU, it’s hard to project much involvement for Miller as a pass-catcher at the NFL level.
Miller ran 249 routes combined in his 2021 and 2022 seasons, but for all the extra cardio, he earned a measly 30 targets in total. On top of that, his 1.39 yards per route run (YPRR) ranked fifth-worst in this class.
While Miller did excel with the ball in his hands, having logged the seventh-highest yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R), he primarily operated as an emergency check-down option rather than a first or second read out of the backfield or lined up as a receiver.
Fantasy Impact
Miller fits the archetype of RBs that I like to target late in drafts, but his single season as a starter along with a lack of wiggle puts him in the Day 3 conversation, at best. Any landing spot will likely have an established starter at RB, which would add further uncertainty to his projected touches.
That said, the opportunity cost associated with scooping him up will be minimal in both rookie drafts as well as in season-long formats, and Miller will have some fantasy upside as a runner given his frame.
Some comps for Miller include Darrel Williams (5’11, 225 lbs.), Khalil Herbert (5’9, 210 lbs.), and Zonovan Knight (5’11, 209 lbs.), and all three of these RBs have seen fantasy relevant early-down, short-yardage, or goal-line roles at various points in their respective careers. As a result, each of these RBs managed to fall into the end zone enough times for a few weekly RB1 fantasy finishes here or there.
Miller’s size and excellent contact balance puts him in consideration for a role similar to that of the aforementioned RBs, especially in the event of an injury to another RB in his future backfield. Injuries happen every season, and while we can't predict them, we can prepare for injuries by drafting late-round RBs with upside like Miller.
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