With the Super Bowl behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the incoming 2023 rookie class. Dwain McFarland discusses the pros and cons of Marvin Mims as a dynasty prospect and which WRs he comps to at the NFL level.
Marvin Mims
- Rookie Draft ADP: 16 (WR7)
- Underdog ADP: 173
- WR Rookie Super Model: 79th percentile (WR4)
- Landing Spot: Denver Broncos (63rd overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Marvin Mims has a lot of competition for targets in the Denver offense. If the team keeps both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy it will be difficult for him to command a significant role early in his career.
However, his downfield skill set should match well with Russell Wilson's ability to throw the ball deep outside the numbers. Don't be surprised to see Mims hit the occasional long touchdown or big play, but consistency could be hard to come by in 2023.
Mims' long-term outlook is excellent with second round draft capital and a strong endorsement from new HC Sean Payton suggesting he is a big part of the team's future plans.
Keep an eye on his snap counts throughout the season as Mims could be an excellent mid-season add for his potential to climb the depth chart and peak during the fantasy playoffs.
Summary
The Fantasy Life Rookie WR Model loves Marvin Mims. He is the only WR ranked in the top two tiers of the model who is not expected to be drafted in the first or second round of the upcoming NFL Draft. Considering that draft capital is by far the No. 1 factor in the model, Mims's ranking speaks highly to his play and production.
The former four-star recruit currently projects to be a third-round selection in the NFL Draft after a strong showing at the NFL Combine, where his 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump metrics all ranked in the 89th percentile or higher. Mims had a top-five 40 time in this class, and of that group, he has the best collegiate resume.
Nov 5, 2022; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Marvin Mims (17) makes a catch as Baylor Bears cornerback Mark Milton (3) defends during the first half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
Mims finished his three-year career at Oklahoma with 2,397 yards and 20 TDs on 123 receptions. The vertical threat finished strong with career-highs in targets (23%) and receiving yards per team passing attempt (2.65) as a junior, and he just barely missed the 30% dominator threshold (28%).
If he surprises and is drafted in the top two rounds of the NFL Draft, Mims could climb to the top of Tier 2 in the WR Super Model.
Pros
Freshman production
While Mims’s junior season was an impressive finish to his collegiate career, the start of his collegiate career was almost as impressive. He delivered a 24% dominator rating as a true freshman in 2020 by accounting for 18% of the receiving yards and 30% of the TDs for the Sooners.
As a true freshman, Mims also produced a career-high 33% targets per route run (TPRR), and his 4.07 yards per route run (YPRR) ranked in the 79th percentile, making him only the second player since 2014 to eclipse the 4.00 YPRR threshold before reaching the age of 19.
While he took a small step back as a sophomore with a 2.62 YPRR, Mims still managed a career average of 2.95 YPRR, which ranked in the 72nd percentile.
Explosive playmaker
Mims was an electric playmaker for the Sooners, with 32% of his targets going for 15 yards or more. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba created chunk plays at a higher rate (34%) in the 2023 draft class.
At Oklahoma, Mims played inside and outside, but one constant remained: his ability to stretch the vertical boundary. His career average depth of target (aDOT) of 16.7 yards grades out in the 79th percentile going back to the 2017 rookie class.
He is at his best on deep crossing routes, as Mims saw many of his downfield targets and yards after the catch created on such routes.
Depending on where he lands, this could lead to some value in the anytime touchdown market next season. You can get in on the action and get your first bet of up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win on BetMGM. Simply follow the offer below to claim yours.
Cons
Never dominated
Despite having produced 30% receiving yard shares and 30% TD shares in different seasons, Mims never put everything together in one campaign to eclipse a 30% dominator rating.
In addition, his career-high target share of 23% and career 22% TPRR are slightly below-average compared to prospects that went on to find success as top-24 fantasy WRs in the NFL.
Mims is also more of a build-up speed guy on film than an instant explosion type of WR. He can get over the top of defenders, but many of his catch opportunities were contested despite some highlight-reel grabs. Mims must improve to find continued success against better competition at the next level.
Not ranked highly by scouting community
Film analysts are lower on Mims than data analysts. And while the film analysts do like certain aspects of his game, none have him graded as a high-end talent.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com echoes these sentiments. He has Mims ranked as his No. 10 WR and rated as a player who can work all three levels as an eventual average starter, but Zierlein has concerns about Mims's ability to win contested catches at the pro level.
If NFL scouting departments see him in a similar light, it could be challenging for Mims to climb into the top-two rounds of the NFL Draft.
Fantasy Impact
While Mims’s profile isn’t flawless, he's also not a finished product. He is the youngest WR in the model’s first two tiers, and the data tells us to keep an open mind about Mims's potential upside in the NFL.
The former Sooner might never become a target hog at the next level, but he has plenty of live outs thanks to his big-play ability and vertical prowess. His closest comps in the model are Christian Kirk, D.J. Chark Jr., and Dyami Brown.
Mims is an excellent target in both dynasty and best ball formats thanks to his current low price tags. In addition, his profile already accounts for expected third-round draft capital, which leaves plenty of room for upside should he surprise as a second-round selection in late April.
Do you agree? You can get your hands on Mims and ALSO get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 on Underdog Fantasy, just for signing up! Follow the offer below to claim your deposit match.
