Michael Mayer
- Rookie Draft ADP: 16 (TE1)
- Underdog ADP: 166.5 (TE20)
- Mock Draft V3: 18th overall (Lions)
- Landing Spot: Las Vegas Raiders (35th overall)
Fantasy Outlook
There's no denying Michael Mayer's talent. He can win after the catch, play on the line, and help move the chains. His predraft fantasy value was through the roof, given his pass-catching skills. But now, we have to sort through his situation.
The Raiders ended the regular season 19th in pass rate over expected (PROE). They jettisoned Darren Waller to the east coast, but added Jakobi Meyers and Austin Hooper. Meanwhile, the Raiders switched signal callers from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo, who ended '22 with the tenth-lowest PROE while still in San Francisco.
Banking on a first-year breakout, in a (projected) low-volume offense, with legitimate target competition is a tough ask for any TE. Mayer might be best left on the waiver wire until we get more clarity on the '23 Raiders.
Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: TE3
Summary
Widely known as “Baby Gronk,” Mayer earned plenty of high praise throughout his prolific three years at Notre Dame.
Overall, the former five-star recruit finished his collegiate career with over 2,000 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns; Mayer largely served as the focal point of the Fighting Irish’s passing attack while never shying away from getting nasty with his blocking responsibilities.
A first-team AP All-American as a junior, Mayer only got better during his time in South Bend, and he’s now widely viewed as the best TE available in an objectively loaded class.
What follows is a breakdown of just what exactly makes Mayer so special as a prospect and what to make of his fantasy football value in 2023 and beyond.
Pros
Goes beast mode after the catch
It’s easy to see where Mayer gets his “Baby Gronk '' moniker: The man is a savage with the ball in his hands.
Similar to Gronk, Mayer won’t run away from defenders with pure speed, but his combination of open-field fluidity and raw physicality makes him a nightmare to get to the ground.
Mayer’s film is littered with YAC-filled receptions that demonstrate his ability to make defenders miss by any means necessary.
While Zach Ertz has been a common comp for Mayer, his ability to win after the catch is more akin to a slightly slower Gerald Everett. Not bad either way!
Mayer’s ability to both, 1.) Get open against man- and zone-coverage alike, and 2.) Consistently pick up extra yards after the catch, made him one helluva problem for defenders of all shapes and sizes to handle in college.
The extra scary part?
The 21-year-old talent might just be scratching the surface of what he’s truly capable of achieving.
Got better and better throughout his college career
Mayer earned a featured pass-game role as a true freshman and never looked back. Big-time production with improved efficiency every year for a dude who won’t turn 22 until July.
Is that something you might be interested in?
- 2022: 92.5 PFF grade, 67-809-9, 2.44 yards per route run, 31% targets per route run
- 2021: 80.6 PFF grade, 71-840-7, 1.99 yards per route run, 23% targets per route run
- 2020: 71 PFF grade, 42-450-2, 1.39 yards per route run, 18% target per route run
There’s something to be said about the Notre Dame offense lacking much high-end competition, but Mayer’s 37% Dominator score as a junior is still rather incredible, even with that context.
Mayer wins all over the place and has the requisite skill set to never leave the field – even if there’s a fire (okay, maybe then).
Never has to leave the field
Mayer’s 91.8 PFF Grade from 2021 to 2022 was the second-highest mark among all TEs.
This score is even more impressive considering just how much time he spent all over the formation during his three seasons with the Fighting Irish (via PFF):
- Inline: 56.7% snaps
- Slot: 33.1%
- Out wide: 8.4%
- Backfield: 1.8%
Plenty of NFL TEs are glorified big slots (looking at you Mike Gesicki); Mayer is capable of lining up just about anywhere and not looking out of place while doing so.
It’d make sense if Mayer is featured more so as a traditional “Y” inline TE due to his modest testing numbers (more on that in a bit), but defenses can’t sleep on his receiving prowess when lined up in the slot or out wide.
Obviously staying on the field at the NFL level requires plenty of refinement and effort as a blocker.
Good news: He’s rather awesome at both. From PFF’s 2023 NFL Draft Guide:
“Where he wins: Physicality. Mayer's entire game stems from being the aggressor. Whether it's his work as a blocker, the subtle shove to get away from coverage or an ill-intentioned stiff arm in the open field — Mayer is going to take the fight to defenders.
What’s his role: Inline Tight end. If you want a tight end who can go head-to-head with defensive ends in the run game while being an option route savant over the middle of the field, Mayer is your guy. That's what he was put on this Earth to do.
Where he can improve: Speed. I know, I know: speed is not something that can usually improve. However, Mayer is very young for a top tight end prospect coming out and doesn't have to be 265 pounds. There's some excess weight there he could trim to add a little more dynamism to his game”
This takes us to the part of the article where we say less nice things about him.
Cons
Lacks high-end straight-line speed
Mayer’s 4.7-second 40-yard dash reflects what you see on the film:
He’s not someone who defenders have to worry about running past them. Sure, Mayer hauled in his fair share of downfield receptions over the years, but he was usually sprung open deep by a clever route-combo and/or benefited from getting to run through zone coverage.
This is a part of Mayer’s game that he’s aware of – the man said his favorite route is the sail after all – but it’s fair to wonder just how well he’ll be able to create separation against professional safeties and corners who will almost universally be faster than him.
There were times against tougher competition like Ohio State and Clemson when defenders simply stayed home against Mayer’s nifty releases and had enough time to close in at the catch point; an offense with a true field-stretcher or two would make his life much easier in the underneath and intermediate areas of the field.
Athletic comps are a mixed bag
Many were quick to criticize Mayer’s NFL combine numbers. They admittingly weren’t great:
- 40-yard dash: 4.7 seconds (tied for 9th among 13 TE)
- 10-yard split: 1.66 seconds (13th among 13 TE)
- Vertical jump: 32.5 inches (11th among 14 TE)
- Broad jump: 9’10” (10th among 15 TE)
Good news: Mayer posted rather awesome numbers in the short shuttle (4.31 seconds) and 3-cone drill (8.9) at his Pro Day, putting his relative athletic score (RAS) at an impressive 8.85 – good for the 128th highest score out of 1,054 TE from 1987 to 2023.
Reduced times in these agility drills to make up for occasionally friendly Pro Day measuring still put Mayer in a comp group with past fantasy producers like Eric Ebron, Hayden Hurst, and Hunter Henry.
Nobody is confusing Mayer for Darnell Washington or Jelani Woods as a pure athlete, but his tape and times indicate that there’s some legit short-area quickness here, which is necessary when attempting to make up for a lack of elite straight-line speed.
Fantasy Impact
Mayer shouldn’t be expected to accomplish much in 2023 mostly because the TE position as a whole has been brutal at enabling elite day-one performers.
This is undoubtedly due to the difficulty that many youngins have in being good enough as a receiver and blocker to earn an early-career full-time role; either way only Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts have posted top-12 PPR production as a rookie over the past decade, and even then both benefited mightily from the absence of their offense’s clear-cut No. 1 WR.
There isn’t enough underlying high-end athleticism to go too crazy with Mayer’s career outlook, particularly in fantasy land where his blocking prowess won’t directly lead to elite counting numbers.
Still, his expected status as a day-one pick is essential when looking at the history of draft capital and career fantasy production; whoever winds up drafting.
Mayer will likely do so at a point which will warrant a full-time role sooner rather than later.
You can draft Mayer in a dynasty league if you believe in the upside while ALSO getting a 100% deposit match of up to $100 on Sleeper Fantasy to use for their over/under game. Seems like a draft-day steal, right?
Fire up Mayer as 2023’s overall rookie TE1 thanks to his proven all-around track record and potential to fit into any offense, but I wouldn’t overestimate his lead on the likes of Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington, Sean LaPorta, and Luke Musgrave.
This is a loaded TE class, and Mayer’s current advantage in ADP seems a bit too steep considering the potential for him to be a better NFL prospect than a fantasy world-beater; I’m not down with his current round one cost with fellow receiving-friendly talents at the position available 10-plus picks later.
