With the Super Bowl behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the 2023 rookie class. Today our resident dynasty guru Jonathan profiles one of the top WRs in the class...
Quentin Johnston
- Rookie Draft ADP: 6
- Underdog ADP: 93
- Rookie WR Super Model: 84th percentile
- Landing Spot: Los Angeles Chargers (21st overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Landing with the Chargers is among the best possible outcomes for Johnston. He should now be tied to QB Justin Herbert for many years and has a chance to become the top target in the offense as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams age out.
The Chargers offense is now overseen by OC Kellen Moore who was seemingly fired, at least in part, for wanting to score too many points in Dallas. If he can come close to replicating the top five scoring offense he called for the Cowboys last year, there should be plenty of points to go around in LA.
Although he will project as the third target out of the gate, Johnston has the chance to ascend over the course of the season and peak when we need him most, during the fantasy playoffs.
Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: Boom-or-bust WR4
Summary
At 6’4” Quentin Johnston quite literally stands out in a class full of smaller receivers. Despite his size, he has very good burst and is excellent at creating yards after the catch. He can win in all three levels of the passing game and is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball.
Johnston isn’t a perfect prospect and has a ways to go to refine his route running, but he has the athleticism and size to be an elite separator if he continues to develop the technical parts of his game.
Of the three receivers I have in my top tier, Johnston has the widest range of outcomes. His physical traits give him a ceiling that very few receivers possess, but there are enough holes in his game that it isn’t too hard to see a bust case as well.
Dec 31, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Traits
For a player who made so many plays downfield in college, his technique at the catch point is pretty poor. He generally relied on his length and vertical in contested catch situations and regularly fails to high point the ball which is unlikely to be as effective against NFL corners.
He will also need to develop new ways to beat press man coverage as he showed a relatively limited release package in those situations. This was particularly evident against Georgia in the National Championship game when Johnston was consistently denied a free release and struggled to get open, ending the game with one catch for three yards.
The good news is a lot of Jonhston’s weaknesses are fixable, but the bad news is they are still weaknesses after three years of playing high-level college football at a Power 5 school.
Fantasy & Dynasty Impact
Johnston seems to be a lock for the first round and will likely be a top-20 pick barring any surprises between now and draft day.
That draft capital should also solidify his place as a top-5 non-QB pick in rookie drafts this year.
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