Roschon Johnson
- Rookie ADP: 21
- RB Rookie Model Percentile: 58th
- Underdog ADP: 140.8
- Landing Spot: Chicago Bears (115th overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Roschon Johnson enters the Chicago backfield with D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert already on the roster. Plus, Justin Fields moonlit as an RB, leading all passers in rushing yards last season. So, to some drafters, Johnson might not have much value.
But let's dig a bit deeper.
First, the Bears ended ‘22 dead last in PROE. While adding players like D.J. Moore signals more passing for Fields, they won’t turn into the Chiefs over a single offseason. So, volume shouldn't be an issue for any of the RBs. Plus, it's not like Herbert or Foreman are locks to bogart the work.
While Foreman shined with Carolina, he only garnered a $2M deal from the Bears. Meanwhile, Herbert fell to the back of the league in rushing efficiency and didn't function well as a receiver. If Johnson can stand out early, we could see him on the field early and often in '23.
Summary
At 6’0” and 219 lbs., Johnson is the biggest back expected to be drafted in this year's class. He was a 4-star QB recruit who made the change to running back in 2020 and never looked back. Expect him to go off the board late on day two or early on day three.
Pros
Roschon Johnson may be the biggest sleeper running back in this year's class. Stuck in the shadow of the draft's top back, Bijan Robinson, Johnson had a stellar career in his own right at the University of Texas and will come into the league with low tread on his tires.
When you compare his numbers to Bijan, he stacks up favorably. Johnson and Robinson had the same EPA per carry (+0.18), while Johnson had a higher rush success rate and averaged more yards per carry after contact.
The man is a nightmare to try to tackle. Since 2015, Roschon Johnson's missed tackles forced per touch is the highest in the NCAA at 0.394; numbers two and three are Javonte Williams and Bijan Robinson.
He isn’t just a big bruiser—he also has the burst you desire out of a big back. His 1.54 10-yard split is 86th percentile, rare for backs his size who usually rely on build-up speed.
Another advantage Johnson will have in gaining early playing time is his ability in pass protection while also being a capable receiver. He averaged 7 yards per reception in college, and for his size, he is more than capable in the passing game.
He compares nearly identically to Chris Carson and has a chance to have a similar NFL career.
Cons
If an NFL team is looking for a shifty back, they are not going to be looking Johnson’s way, as he will never win with lateral agility.
While he is a capable receiver, he is still extremely raw and was rarely used in the passing game. On 61 career targets, he dropped 5 passes, and considering he's only played the position for a couple of years, there will be a developmental curve.
Johnson, like many other backs in this class, is going to be landing spot-dependent. I am extremely high on him, but if he ends up going in the middle of day three, he has a long uphill road to climb to become a consistently fantasy-relevant player.
Fantasy Impact
Through 40 way too early Underdog best ball drafts, Roschon Johnson is my most drafted player and is someone I am happily drafting over his 172.8 ADP. His ADP has climbed 10 spots in the last two weeks, but he is still a massive value.
He is an auto-draft for me at round 15—I don’t think twice about it with the ceiling he has if he goes on day two of the draft. He is the best value in all of the fantasy drafts right now.
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In dynasty rookie drafts, Johnson is going six spots lower than my 15th overall ranking and is someone I would prioritize trading up for.
