Outside of a true "high-stakes" fantasy league, there are few greater feelings than a dynasty manager during their startup draft.
The excitement of laying the foundation for your team can be equally thrilling and (sometimes) stressful. It's always helpful to have a few players on a short list that you can snag if you find yourself in a bind.
Looking across the AFC, here are four dynasty startup value picks to.
Dynasty rankings courtesy of KTC.
AFC North - Jermaine Burton, WR - Bengals
- Dynasty ADP - WR58
Understanding team environments, contract situations, and draft capital can all help a savvy dynasty manager make more informed decisions throughout the year. For the Cincinnati Bengals, the major offseason storyline has been the potential trade of veteran wideout Tee Higgins.
Regardless of what happens this offseason, it does feel like 2024 will be Higgins' last in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow is already under contract and superstar teammate Ja'Marr Chase will soon get his bag.
So, to future-proof their offense, the team went out and drafted Jermaine Burton in Round 3 (80th overall). The loss of Tyler Boyd only increased their need to have another viable weapon both now and moving forward.
Dec 2, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Jermaine Burton (3) catches a pass for a touchdown against Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Daylen Everette (6) in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Burton spent two years at Georgia and two more at Alabama. His program quality index jumps off the page as he spent his entire career at two of the most dominant schools in the country. However, he's an older prospect who fell to Round 3. He wound up sliding in at WR12 in the Rookie WR Model.
In his prospect profile, Chris Allen noted the following:
Over half (51.4%) of Burton’s receiving yards came on pass attempts of 20 yards or more, which is the highest mark for any WR in this 2024 rookie class. At the same time, his average Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade on those routes is sixth-best amongst his peers.
Allen goes on to highlight that Burton isn't just a deep threat; he's a versatile route runner who can work in the short-intermediate area as well.
Clearly, Burton can work against coverage on shorter route concepts. Meanwhile, his aDOT skews our perception. However, by isolating his target shares on a per-depth basis, Burton’s utility as an intermediate option becomes clearer.
- Deep: 29.9% target rate, 94.6 PFF grade
- Intermediate: 37.7% target rate, 93.2 PFF grade
He was similarly efficient on those intermediate looks, which suggests that Burton can be more than just a deep threat at the pro level unlike what his highlight reel might suggest.
All I need to know is the Bengals drafted a talented, above-average athlete from a high-end program and he'll get to play alongside Burrow and Chase for the foreseeable future. Sometimes, we don't have to make fantasy football any harder than it needs to be, and at WR58 price, he's a near must-draft for me in dynasty startups.
AFC South - Adonai Mitchell, WR - Colts
- Dynasty ADP - WR44
For a guy who was starting to get some buzz as a fringe first-round pick, almost falling out of the second round isn't ideal. As for the landing spot, it will likely be a better real football move than a fantasy-friendly move, at least in the short term.
I'll emphasize that last part one more time… short-term. In dynasty formats, this should still be fun.
Adonai Mitchell fell to the Colts at No. 52 overall. Despite a relatively limited college production profile, Mitchell profiles as a potential game changer.
In his prospect profile, Ian Hartitz noted just how historic his athletic testing numbers were:
The way Mitchell moves on a football field is that much more impressive considering he stands 6’2” and weighs 205 pounds.
Seriously: These are the sorts of numbers we usually see from guys missing three inches and 30 pounds from their frame.
- 40-yard Dash: 4.34 seconds (97th percentile)
- 10-yard Split: 1.52 seconds
- Vertical Jump: 39.5”
- Broad Jump: 11’4”
- Speed Score: 117.1 (97th)
- Burst Score: 135.2 (96th)
That 10-yard split was just 0.03 seconds removed from 40-yard dash king and Texas teammate Xavier Worthy (1.52), while the broad jump was better than any other WR at the 2024 NFL Combine. Hell, the latter mark was tied for the sixth-longest jump of any WR at the combine since at least 2013.
We’re talking about the fifth-best RAS score out of 3,188 WRs from 1987 to 2024 here.
That's elite.
However, landing spots do matter and the Colts are an interesting spot. Anthony Richardson only appeared in four games last season and was not afraid to run the ball at a high rate. In fact, he averaged an 18% designed rush rate across his four outings.
Tack on WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. and his recent contract extension, Josh Downs who topped 700 receiving yards as a rookie, and workhorse RB Jonathan Taylor and it could get tricky for Mitchell to consistently produce for fantasy managers right away.
The WR Rookie Model also doesn't quite know how to feel about Mitchell as he clocks in as the WR10.
His dynasty value sits at WR44, which feels about right. Admittedly, it's not the same comparison but I'm getting Jaxon Smith-Njigba vibes. I love the player but recognize the need to be more patient in the short term.
AFC East - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR - Patriots
- Dynasty ADP - WR53
Gone are the years of Brady and Belichick dominating the AFC East. The New England Patriots are, again, entering a new era at QB but also have an exciting young wideout who hopefully won't follow the same path of previously drafted Patriots wideouts.
The Patriots drafted Ja'Lynn Polk early in the second round (37th overall). Polk was the second option alongside Rome Odunze in the explosive Washington passing attack but was still highly drafted in his own right.
In his prospect profile, Jonathan Fuller highlighted what could make Polk a viable option at the next level:
Polk excelled in contested catch situations and did most of his damage on deep targets, where he had an excellent 50% catch rate. He's very good at tracking deep passes and is able to contort his body to make tough catches, even when he's about to take a hit. Polk's toughness and ability to win at the catch point should make him a trusted target for his QB early on in his NFL career.
Polk can play outside and in the slot, which gives him multiple paths to getting on the field. He’s an ideal depth piece who can fill multiple roles for his future NFL team. And during his final two seasons at Washington, Polk played 37.3% and 41.1% of his snaps from the slot, respectively.
Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk (2) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Now paired with fellow rookie Drake Maye, Polk has all the opportunity to step in right away and be a key contributor. Let's be honest, looking at the rest of this depth chart, Maye needs all the help he can get.
Dwain McFarland noted that Polk was one of his biggest post-draft risers and echoed Fuller's observations about his versatility:
Polk demonstrated an ability to attack all layers of the field for the Huskies, but he was particularly good at unlocking deep and intermediate shots down the field. Below is his target profile and how it compares to the NCAA average for a WR.
- Behind the line of scrimmage: 14% (+0 percentage points)
- 0 to 9 yards: 29% (-10)
- 10 to 19 yards: 32% (+4)
- 20-plus yards: 25% (+5)
Polk slides in at WR8 in the Rookie WR Model. Fantasy managers, especially those in dynasty startups, should not be afraid of the historically bad track record of the Patriots drafting and developing WRs or the seemingly horrid landing spot. Opportunities will be there for Polk and he's priced at a value (for now).
AFC West - Troy Franklin, WR - Broncos
- Dynasty ADP - WR56
Remember when the Denver Broncos were just a QB away from being a playoff contender? Good times.
Instead of going for a veteran option this time around, the Broncos drafted their franchise-hopeful QB in the first round and then selected Troy Franklin in the fourth round (102nd overall).
The Broncos offense is wildly depressed in dynasty formats, and for good reason. Still, there are options available to dynasty managers that, at the right price point, make this an enticing, undervalued environment.
Specifically looking at Franklin, Ian provided some next-level analysis about why dynasty managers should be excited:
While getting paired with Bo Nix in this ever-high-flying offensive attack helped matters, Franklin’s game-breaking speed (4.41-second 40-yard dash) proved to be the linchpin of a Ducks offense that scored more TDs (146) than anyone else over the last two seasons.
Overall, there wasn’t a more efficient QB-WR duo than Nix and Franklin when it came to passer rating when targeted. You truly don’t need more than one hand to count the number of more productive WRs in college football since 2022:
Franklin among 125 qualified Power 5 WRs in 2022-23:
- PFF receiving grade: 87.1 (No. 8)
- Passer rating when targeted: 144.9 (No. 1)
- Receiving yards: 2,274 (No. 4)
- Receiving TDs: 23 (No. 2)
- Yards per route run: 2.85 (No. 6)
- Yards per reception: 16 (No. 21)
- Targets per route run: 24.7% (No. 38)
I'm always going to be a sucker for those college teammate/NFL teammate narratives. It's so easy to imagine how excited these young guys were when they dominated together in college and now have the chance to develop together at the next level.
Franklin's lack of high-end draft capital pushed him down the board a bit, especially in our Rookie WR Model where he comes in at No. 14. Still, at his current dynasty price, it's hard not to draft him in startups.
