Outside of a true "high-stakes" fantasy league, there are few greater feelings than what a dynasty manager experiences during their startup draft.
The excitement of laying the foundation for your own team can be equal parts thrilling and (sometimes) stressful. It's always helpful to have a few players on a short list that you can snag if you find yourself in a bind.
Looking across the NFC, here are four players you can draft at a value. Make sure to also check out the AFC Dynasty Startup Values!
Dynasty rankings courtesy of KTC.
NFC North - Jameson Williams, WR - Lions
- Dynasty ADP - WR49
It's easy to forget that Jameson Williams was selected by the Lions with the 12th overall pick in 2022. He finished his collegiate career at Alabama in 2021 with an absurd line of 79/1,572/15 (19.9 yards per reception).
Williams’ calling card has always been his big play ability. His near-20 yards per reception mark at Alabama, his lone TD in 2022 (41 yards), and his 16.4 aDOT in 2023 all highlight his downfield skillset. His 4.39 40-yard dash (94th percentile) doesn’t hurt either.
He could profile as the ideal post-hype sleeper heading into 2024. The Lions surprised everyone (except themselves) by claiming their first division title in 30 years. The success of Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs means very few are looking at Williams.
We can exploit this in the weeks and months ahead.
Following his bye in Week 9, Williams started to regain some form as the prototypical deep threat we all know he can be. It's worth noting he was over 20% air yard share in five of the final eight games and also finished inside the top 40 five times during that stretch.
The Lions also locked up both Goff and ARSB with massive contracts and spent approximately zero draft picks on pass-catchers. With their core intact and plenty of opportunity in front of him, Williams could surprise this season.
If I can land someone with his pedigree, profile, talent, and draft capital that cheap (WR49), I’ll take that every single time. The Lions are building something special in Detroit and dynasty managers should be quick to stash Williams before he reminds everyone what he’s capable of.
NFC South - Xavier Legette, WR - Panthers
- Dynasty ADP - WR40
The Carolina Panthers drafted Xavier Legette with the final pick in the first round of the NFL Draft. This offense struggled to get anything going around Bryce Young last season, so the addition of Legette, along with Diontae Johnson, should hopefully get things moving in the right direction.
Legette spent five seasons in South Carolina and didn't break 170 receiving yards in a season until last year when he went for 71/1,255/7, averaging 17.7 yards per reception. So what do we make of an older prospect who didn't do much of anything until Year 5 in college but secured Round 1 draft capital?
In his prospect profile, Jonathan Fuller noted:
Legette has a rare combination of size and speed that will intrigue plenty of NFL teams. He measured in at 6’1” and 221 lbs at the NFL Combine and crushed the athletic testing with a 4.39 second 40 yard dash and a 40” vertical which ranked among the best in the class.
His athletic profile is truly elite and it shows up on his film as he broke several big plays and was a nightmare to stop in the open field. A true home run threat on every play, it’s easy to see how a coaching staff could talk themselves into Legette with a day-two pick.
Before the NFL Draft, Legette was down at WR18 in the Rookie WR Model, but his first round draft capital vaulted him up to WR11. It does go to show you just how much draft capital matters. If a team is willing to pay up for a player, let's hope they have a plan for developing him.
For some added context, here are the players ranked both directly ahead of and behind Legette in the model.
Legette represents the end of Tier 3 in the model. If you believe in trading back within tiers of players while still securing a potentially fantasy-friendly option, Legette might not cost you as much as some others.
To be transparent, WR40 is about as early as I would take Legette in a dynasty startup draft. He's one of the oldest prospects in this class, didn't break out until his fifth year in college, and is unrefined as a route-runner. Still, his athletic profile and Day 1 pick give me plenty of intrigue heading into both this season and beyond.
NFC East - Jake Ferguson, TE - Cowboys
- Dynasty ADP - TE11
We're finally breaking the mold and getting away from WRs. When looking for value picks in dynasty startup drafts, wideouts tend to get the nod more often than not, especially young ones, because of how many there are and how valuable those picks can be from a price perspective.
However, when looking across the NFC East, one of my favorite players is still falling down draft boards more than I think he should: Jake Ferguson.
In case you haven't heard, the Dallas Cowboys are all in. However, they did nothing during free agency or the draft that gives you any confidence that that's true.
I'm not even counting the return of Ezekiel Elliott.
However, one big winner from Dallas's lack of, well, anything, was Ferguson.
Jan 14, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) makes a touchdown catch against the Green Bay Packers in the fourth quarter for the 2024 NFC wild card game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
In his first season as the starting option, Ferguson went 71/761/5 on 102 targets. He was second in targets behind only CeeDee Lamb (181) and earned 20+ more targets than the next closest player (Brandin Cooks).
To further put Ferguson’s season in perspective, he finished inside the top 10 among all TEs in the following categories:
- Targets
- Receptions
- Receiving yards
- Receiving TDs
- PPG & PPR
Oh, and both Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup are also gone. That frees up 124 targets from last season.
In total, Dallas is down over 24% of their targets from last year and they didn't bring in any pass-catchers to help offset that loss. With no real rushing attack, it might literally be just Lamb and Ferguson. I also believe that Dak Prescott will get a new extension, so I'm not worried (yet) about a changing of the guard at the QB position.
Ferguson is too cheap. Dynasty managers, figure it out.
NFC West - Isaac Guerendo, RB - 49ers
- Dynasty ADP - RB64
There are some landing spots that are just more enticing than others. It's hard not to get excited about skill-position players on the San Francisco 49ers, and for good reason. Kyle Shanahan routinely gets the most out of his players and consistently puts them in the best position to succeed.
That's why I'm cautiously interested in rookie RB Isaac Guerendo.
Selected in Round 4, Guerendo spent four years at Wisconsin before finishing up at Louisville. Last year, he set career-marks in every major category.
- Rushing attempts - 132
- Rushing yards - 810
- Rushing TDs - 11
- Receptions - 22
- Receiving yards - 234
Heading into the NFL Draft, Dwain McFarland noted just how unique his upside could be, especially given the context that he spent five years in college and is 24 years old:
After clocking a 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, Guerendo’s draft expectations soared. His 125.7 Speed Score ranks No. 1 in the Super Model database. Originally considered an undrafted free agent prospect, the six-year collegiate back now looks like a Round 5 pick based on consensus mock drafts.
He sports a 98th percentile mark or better in the 40-yard dash, speed score, and burst score. Add in his landing spot with Kyle Shanahan and his fantasy-friendly offense and it's hard not to get excited about Guerendo in dynasty formats. He also comes in at RB8 in our Rookie RB Model.
Yes, he's old, and his production profile is lacking in many areas, but all these RBs need is an opportunity and they could massively pay off. Can you imagine a tailback with the No. 1 Speed Score of this class finding space in a Shanahan offense? Sign me up.
There's no questioning that this backfield belongs to Christian McCaffrey, but if you are a savvy dynasty manager (and whether or not you roster CMC), it would seem prudent to at least consider the idea of gaining some exposure to Guerendo this offseason.
