We’re wrapping up the first quarter of the NFL season.
It’s crazy how fast it goes; don’t forget to enjoy it! In this quarterly series, I will look at players who experienced significant shifts in their dynasty values and what fantasy managers should do to stay ahead of their leagues.
Dynasty Stock Up: Week 4
Kyren Williams, RB - Rams
Did anyone have “Kyren Williams will be the unequivocal RB1 for the Rams” on their bingo card? If you did, good for you. I sure didn’t.
The Cam Akers experience lasted just one week and all Williams has done in his absence is post elite usage numbers.
You’re seeing that right: 100% of the snaps in Week 3. It’s not just the rushing usage (78%+ in consecutive weeks); he’s also seeing high-end receiving work as demonstrated by his 80%+ route participation and 18%+ target share in Weeks 2 and 3.
Week 4 was even better. He set new career highs in rushing attempts (25) and rushing yards (103) and tacked on two more TDs. He’s now scored six TDs in just four games.
For a 23-year-old RB who had just 44 total touches as a rookie, patient dynasty managers are very happy.
But is this sustainable? That’s the question we should be looking to answer.
On one hand, Williams is earning snaps, attempts, routes, and targets at an elite clip. He’s also producing with those opportunities. Finally, there is virtually no competition behind him for meaningful work in the short term. Matthew Stafford and this offense have also looked much better than expected.
Oct 1, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) runs the ball in the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
However, there are a few big variables hanging over this offense: Cooper Kupp has not played a snap yet. Will the Puka Nacua breakout continue once Kupp is back on the field? Will Williams cede some of that coveted receiving work, which could cap his ceiling?
They’re fair points to consider. While some managers may seek to sell high, I would encourage managers who have Williams to sit tight and enjoy the ride. Regardless of when you drafted and/or acquired Williams, it didn’t cost you much; you got a free square that is a must-start each week.
A former fifth-round pick, Williams’s value has spiked over the last month. His dynasty ADP sits at RB18.
We don’t always have to sell when players are good. It’s okay to hold and enjoy them scoring fantasy points for your team.
You can also take advantage of Williams in the present time on Underdog Fantasy in Pick'em contests, where you can get your first deposit of up to $500 matched PLUS a mystery Pick'em special! Simply sign up below to get started!
James Cook, RB - Bills
Another second-year RB has experienced a nice bump in dynasty formats.
James Cook struggled to receive consistent volume as a rookie; he only topped 10 rushing attempts four times.
Through four weeks of this season, he’s carried the ball 56 times. He’s also been efficient with his opportunities. Here are two of his last three games:
- Week 2 - 17 rushing attempts, 123 yards (7.2 YPC)
- Week 3 - 15 rushing attempts, 98 rushing yards (6.5 YPC)
Week 4 wasn’t the best (just 29 yards on 12 attempts), but he finally scored, which salvaged his fantasy day. He’s also seeing some solid, if not elite, involvement in the passing game. Here’s how his usage compared to both Latavius Murray and Damien Harris through Week 3.
If the Bills would be willing to keep either Murray or Harris off the field and give Cook just a few more touches each week, we’d be on the cusp of something truly special. The fact that Cook has been putting up his level of fantasy production despite not scoring (yet) makes me want him to receive even more touches.
Josh Allen will always be a threat to run the ball and vulture those goal-line TDs. However, Allen does have just one rushing score this season and only has 11% of the rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. If Cook can squeeze out a few more of those high-leverage opportunities, he offers top-12 upside the rest of the way.
Zooming out, Cook carries a dynasty ADP of RB13. The last few months have been kind to managers who held strong through a frustrating yet promising rookie campaign.
Like the aforementioned Williams, dynasty managers need to make a decision on Cook. My answer is going to be the same: when you have a good thing going with a player like Cook, who leads the backfield for one of the best offenses in football, you sit tight and enjoy the ride.
Dynasty Stock Down: Week 4
Najee Harris, RB - Steelers
It’s awesome when players we hold onto see their value increase over time, but it can be equally frustrating to be left “holding the bag” when players lose value. Have you ever gotten stuck with a player that fits this description?
- Frustrating to start on a weekly basis
- Has little value on the trade market
- Too valuable to drop to waivers
This feels like Najee Harris.
We all remember how great his rookie season was and the sheer amount of volume he handled.
307 rushing attempts, 1,200 yards, 7 TDs, and another 74 receptions (on 94 targets!) for 467 yards and another three scores.
That’s elite usage. Unfortunately, it didn’t last.
Oct 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) hands off to running back Najee Harris (22) during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Harris has never been efficient. His rookie (3.9 YPC) and sophomore (3.8 YPC) seasons were buoyed by volume and TDs. While he’s seen his rushing attempts and yards increase each of the first few games this year, his efficiency steadily dropped and he still hasn’t scored.
Second-year RB Jaylen Warren, who also hasn’t scored a TD yet this year, already has 10+ more PPR points than Harris. Warren keeps forcing his way onto the field by way of his explosive ability and pass-catching prowess.
Harris (and dynasty managers) sit at a frustrating juncture. On one hand, he’s getting too much usage to be dropped, but he hasn’t done enough to make you feel good about any potential trade, as your return will likely be less than you want.
At the same time, what better options do you have for your fantasy team? Harris is getting almost 60% of the rushing attempts and is averaging double-digit carries each week. You probably have to keep trotting him out there and hoping he falls into the endzone.
The last month has not been kind to Harris’s dynasty value. He’s plummeted from a high-end RB2 to almost out of the top 36.
He’s “already” 25 years old and likely had his career-best fantasy finish already. He’s nothing more than a hold right for dynasty managers as we collectively hope the Steelers start finding a way to get their starting RB into the endzone.
Rashod Bateman, WR - Ravens
This one hurts, but it might be time to finally let go of the dynasty dream for Rashod Bateman.
The former 27th overall selection by the Ravens back in 2021 has been a massive disappointment, in part due to injuries but also simply because of the hype, draft capital, and overall lack of production on the field.
Bateman appeared in just 18 games over his first two seasons and only scored three TDs in that span. The presence of Mark Andrews was always going to cap his upside as the true “No. 1 pass-catcher,” and the drafting of rookie Zay Flowers with the 22nd overall pick this spring cemented Bateman as the third option on this team.
The aDOT of all the WRs has been a bit erratic thus far, but Flowers is by far the more productive option. Couple that with Bateman dealing with injuries already (again) this season, and his best days as a viable dynasty asset might already be behind him.
Bateman probably feels like Harris in many ways. He’s not productive enough to feel comfortable starting each week, his trade value has all but evaporated over the first month of the season, and you really don’t feel comfortable simply dropping a former first-round WR who is still only 23 years old.
His dynasty ADP is outside the top 60. He’s in such a tricky spot to evaluate.
Like Harris, I would recommend that dynasty managers hold him and ride it out. Could his best days already be behind him? Definitely. If there is a silver lining, it’s his age. He was such a young prospect coming out that he still (hopefully) has many years left of trying to force his way onto an NFL field. His draft capital doesn’t go away, so he should get more chances.
