With Thanksgiving behind us and the fantasy playoffs ahead of us, it’s time to lock it in and get ready for the home stretch.
In this quarterly series, I take a look at players who experienced significant shifts in their dynasty values and what fantasy managers should do to stay ahead of their league.
Dynasty Stock Up: Post-Week 12
Tank Dell, WR - Texans
It’s amazing how much can change over the course of a season. We know fantasy football is an inexact science. No matter how great our models and projections are, there will always be players who break the mold and become stars.
Those are the feel-good stories. Those are the players who keep us on our toes and keep us going back to the drawing board to evaluate and figure out where we went wrong.
Rookie WR Tank Dell is one of those players.
Selected 69th overall (nice) by the Texans (not nice), Dell is making a case to be the best wideout from this class. He came into the league with plenty of accolades and the data to back them up.
He led the American Athletic Conference in receiving yards during his 2021 season and was the NCAA leader in his final season as a Houston. The former Biletnikoff Semifinalist, Dell was a target hog who won all over the field.
Chris Allen noted, “While he played 60.1% of his snaps from the slot, he lined up outside too—but not just as a decoy. Dell’s 29.7% slot TPRR aligned with his 25.5% TPRR from the perimeter.”
Dell is a proven target-earner. His 35% career dominator rating and his career yards per team passing attempt (2.60) are both No. 1 in this class.
We’ve seen many of those target-earning traits on full display this season. He already has four games with 10+ targets and is in the midst of quite the hot streak since Week 9.
Dynasty managers are certainly taking notice.
Dell (and much of the Houston offense) has rocketed up dynasty boards in recent weeks. Once the WR63 (September 1st), Dell now sits as the dynasty WR14.
Talk about a meteoric rise for a player who came in at No. 11 in our Rookie WR Model.
There’s also no real reason to doubt his continued success. Fellow rookie C.J. Stroud is looking like a franchise player with five games of 300+ passing yards on his resume already.
Dynasty managers who drafted Dell and/or picked him up early in the offseason have a foundational piece for their roster. There’s no reason to sell him at this stage as the underlying metrics of Dell signal continued success.
If you want to “buy high”, you certainly can but it’s going to cost you a decent chunk of change. That said, it still might be worth buying if someone is worried about his older age entering the league (23.9), his slight stature (5’10” / 165 lbs), and/or overall lack of notoriety entering the league.
You can also target Dell on a week-to-week basis in the Pick'em market on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!
Trey McBride, TE - Cardinals
Second-year TE Trey McBride was the best of a somewhat weak class last season. However, that doesn’t diminish what he did in college or what he’s done so far this season.
McBride performed well over his final season at Colorado State. Dwain McFarland noted that (and more) in a recent Utilization Report:
McBride was the Cardinals’ second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft after a stellar senior campaign at Colorado State. That year, he caught 90 balls for 1,121 yards, notching a 2.83 yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA)...Adjusting production for the team environment with metrics like YPTPA helps us compare players across different offenses, and McBride’s best season ranked in the 95th percentile for TE prospects since 2017.
McBride posted a quiet rookie season, totaling just 265 yards and a score on 29 receptions. It’s worth noting he accumulated nearly all of that production following his Week 13 bye and while teammate Zach Ertz was injured.
Nov 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (85) delivers a stiff arm to Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III (3) during the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
He began this season with a string of quiet performances as he, once again, operated behind Ertz. However, even before Ertz went down with an injury, McBride was forcing his way onto the field more and more. From Weeks 5-7, while playing alongside Ertz, McBride was earning more attention:
- Route participation - 41%
- Target share - 14%
- TPRR - 27%
However, in his five games without Ertz (Weeks 8-12), McBride has truly erupted and is locked in as a weekly starter.
It’s also worth noting that in his first three games back, Kyler Murray has targeted McBride 25 times. That’s good for a 25% target share to go along with an 86% route participation over the last three weeks.
McBride has ascended the TE ranks and dynasty managers are taking notice. Back on September 1st, he was the TE19. Now, his dynasty ADP sits at TE6.
At just 24 years old, McBride is going to be an early pick in dynasty startup picks next offseason, especially if Murray finishes the year strong and reasserts himself as an elite QB.
The time to buy McBride was this offseason as the price has clearly gone up significantly over the last month. Even so, there could still be a window of opportunity over the final weeks of this season. If a string of tough performances plagues McBride, or if Ertz returns and forces a split, making a strong offer for McBride.
Regardless of how Ertz (33 years old) performs if/when he returns from injured reserve, his dynasty value has evaporated.
McBride has earned the trust of the team and his on-field play demonstrates his immense upside as a shallow position. Outside of WR Marquise Brown, there are no real playmakers on his team making McBride a locked-in option for both real and fantasy football for years to come.
Dynasty Stock Down: Post-Week 12
George Pickens, WR - Steelers
It’s been a tale of two seasons for second-year WR George Pickens. He was having a great start to the year heading into his Week 6 bye. From Weeks 1-5, he was averaging:
- 8.0 targets
- 4.4 receptions
- 78.6 receiving yards
- 15.0 PPG
However, he’s struggled mightily since then. From Weeks 7-12, those averages have dropped considerably.
- 5.5 targets
- 3.0 receptions
- 44.8 receiving yards
- 8.4 PPG
His route participation has been solid but his target share has taken a dip and he hasn’t topped 10 PPR in a game since Week 7. To say it has been a struggle for fantasy managers would be an understatement.
To be fair, it’s hard to put it all on Pickens. We know he’s a highlight reel waiting to happen and he’s still only 22 years old. The entire Pittsburgh offense has been a disappointment over the last year plus, especially through the air.
Second-year QB Kenny Pickett has just one career game with more than one TD pass. Rookie QB Tommy DeVito has 6 TD passes in his last three games; Pickett has 6 TD passes on the season and just two since Week 4.
Simply brutal.
The tough stretch of production has caused Pickens’ dynasty value to dip perceptibly. A year ago, he came in as the WR16 in dynasty formats. Back on September 1st, he was the WR22, and now his dynasty ADP comes in at WR30.
Honestly, now is the time to buy. As mentioned, we know the upside and have seen him flash it on several occasions over the first year and a half of his career. Even the first five weeks of this season offered insight into what Pickens could do when utilized correctly.
Dwain McFarland noted as much in his Utilization Report ahead of Week 6:
With Diontae Johnson out of the lineup, we have seen the role for Pickens broaden.
Only 13% of Pickens' targets have come on looks 20-plus yards downfield in 2023. That number was an astounding 36% last year. Pickens is running more slants, crossers and posts while his go routes are down from 38% to 29%.
Since Johnson exited the lineup in Week 1, Pickens has been a target magnet.
The second-year WR leads the Steelers in targets against zone (23%) and man coverage (30%) per PFF data. And when he gets his opportunities, he is making the most of them. Of WRs with at least 40 targets, only Tyreek Hill averages more yards per catch (18.1) than Pickens (17.9).
Like I said, I would be looking to acquire Pickens before the Steelers figure it out at QB.
Even with a less-than-stellar Pickett under center, Pickens has demonstrated that tantalizing upside fantasy managers crave. Go make some strong offers for a young wideout with elite upside before he invariably breaks his unfortunate streak of single-digit PPR performances.
Miles Sanders, RB - Panthers
This has been a particularly tough one for dynasty managers, especially when you account for his age, track record of production, backfield competition, and contract situation.
There’s no other way to put it: Miles Sanders has been a bust this season.
After spending his first four years with the Eagles, Sanders signed a four-year / $25.4 million contract with the Panthers to be their RB1. All he’s done in ten games is score one TD and reach the 10 PPR threshold twice.
He’s also lost out on a significant amount of work to third-year RB Chuba Hubbard.
Hubbard has clearly established himself as the primary backfield option for rookie QB Bryce Young and the Panthers. He’s monopolizing every meaningful metric except for some work in the passing game and even that doesn’t matter since Young is struggling to move the ball on a consistent basis anyways.
Not only has Sanders lost the starting spot to Hubbard but the former is also having the least efficient season of his career. In four years with Philly, Sanders carried the ball 739 times and averaged over 5.0 yards per carry. In his first season with Carolina, he’s down to 3.1 YPC.
His lack of success is reflected in his dynasty rankings as well. Back on September 1st, he was the RB24 in dynasty formats but he’s all the way down at RB52 currently. Talk about a fall from grace.
To be honest with you, I’m not entirely sure what to do with Sanders right now. He’s priced at the lowest he’s been at any point during his career, so you won’t get anything meaningful in return for him.
At the same time, his age (26) and contract situation suggest there's an opportunity for him to bounce back if Young takes a step forward next season.
I suppose you could acquire Sanders now for almost nothing if a manager just wants out. I would assume he’s locked into a timeshare at the worst with a chance to be a true 1A option at best.
The days of him outright leading a backfield are likely gone, but there’s reason to believe Young improves and raises the overall offensive output which could benefit Sanders.
