The fantasy season is winding down but dynasty managers know there is no offseason.
In this quarterly series, I'll look at players who experienced significant shifts in their dynasty values and what fantasy managers should do to stay ahead of their league.
Stock Up: Chase Brown, RB - Bengals
Welcome to the last of our in-season, quarterly series! My goal has been to take a macro look at the dynasty landscape, identify some of the biggest movers, and help inform dynasty managers how they should respond.
Let’s get started with the first of two rookies.
As a quick aside, rookies are some of the safest bets to make in dynasty formats. Even if they only perform well for stretches of the season, their youth, coupled with the annual market frenzy for rookies, helps push their value up the boards.
Bengals rookie RB Chase Brown totaled just two carries through Week 12 before going on a mini-run for a few weeks ahead of the fantasy playoffs.
A five-year college player, Brown didn’t truly perform until his final season at Illinois. However, the eventual box score is enticing no matter how you look at it.
In that final season, Brown totaled:
- 328 attempts
- 1,643 rushing yards
- 10 rushing TDs
- 27 receptions
- 240 receiving yards
- 3 receiving TDs
Despite that insane final season, our Rookie RB Model slotted him at No. 13 in this class. His age (23), draft capital (Round 5), and lack of elite metrics throughout most of his collegiate career pulled his ranking down. However, there are reasons for optimism. Geoff Ulrich wrote up his dynasty rookie profile and noted the following positives:
At the combine, he posted a 4.43 40 time, an elite vertical, and a surprising 25 on the bench, which has him comparing well with some of the biggest combine studs of past years…In 2022, Brown showcased that athleticism on the regular. He was one of the leaders in explosive runs (10 yards or more) and missed tackles, and was a menace for opposing defenses once he got into the second level.
Over his last four weeks, Brown has firmly entrenched himself as a consistent albeit mild component of the Cincinnati offense. Still dynasty managers have to be excited about what they’ve seen over the last month.
Veteran teammate Joe Mixon (27 years old) has one year remaining on his contract before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2025. It remains to be seen how the team chooses to address the position. Joe Burrow signed his massive contract in September and Ja’Marr Chase is due for a record-setting one of his own.
Brown is now a fringe RB3 with a dynasty ADP of RB37. Just one month ago, he was almost outside the top 60. Things can change quickly in the dynasty space; fantasy managers need to be flexible and pivot when needed.
While we don’t want to get caught chasing the highs of a player on the heels of a few good performances, we should also recognize utilization trends and team environments. As mentioned, Mixon is aging and a year away from being a free agent and the Bengals still project to be an elite offense as long as Burrow remains.
Dynasty managers shouldn’t be afraid to get Brown on their roster soon. It may feel like buying high but I believe there’s still room for him to inch further up dynasty boards in the weeks and months ahead.
You can also take a flyer on Brown in Underdog Fantasy contests this weekend, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!
Stock Up: Rashee Rice, WR - Chiefs
Seeing a trend already? Another rookie makes his debut in our quarterly series after finally becoming a more integral part of the game plan.
Rashee Rice was drafted in Round 2 by the Chiefs who are still trying to make up for the loss of Tyreek Hill. Our Rookie WR Model didn’t love Rice (No. 10) but Chris Allen highlighted just how versatile Rice was in college:
Taken over a two-year sample from PFF, Rice is one of four prospects with an above-average target per route run (TPRR) rate from the slot and out wide. He commanded targets regardless of alignment. Plus, he was efficient in both positions. Rice posted top-10 yards per route run (YPRR) marks within his class at each station. His 2.61 YPRR from the perimeter (10th) and 2.67 YPRR from the slot (6th) highlight his talent to contribute from Day 1.
It was an up-and-down start to the season for Rice. We regularly saw flashes of tantalizing upside but he only registered a 60%+ route participation twice through Week 11. However, starting in Week 12, the Chiefs finally realized what they had.
We’re finally seeing high-end route participation (78%), TPRR (29%), and target share (28%). Those are marks the fantasy managers like to see, especially when the team environment is so enticing.
Dwain noted the following in his Week 16 Utilization Report:
Things can change quickly in fantasy, and Rice has climbed from WR4 status into the WR1 conversation in just four games. He is locked into a top-two role in a pass-first offense without much target competition and an elite QB in Patrick Mahomes. This is a dream scenario for the rookie.
I’m providing a slightly broader horizon to show you Rice’s trajectory this season. He currently sits just inside the WR2 range with a dynasty ADP of WR24.
This is the case in point why taking swings on rookie WRs, especially those with Day 2 (or better) draft capital, is so critical. Yes, sometimes you end up with Skyy Moore but when you are patient with players like Rice, great things can happen. If I told you that your WR52 would be the WR24 in ADP in a few short months, would you be more patient?
Rice is the ideal buy-high candidate.
Yes, it’s going to cost you a decent chunk of change, but the upside is enormous.
We’ve seen flashes of brilliance thus far and once Rice gets in a full season as a priority starter for the Chiefs, we’re looking at an annual top-15 option in fantasy.
Stock Down: Austin Ekeler, RB - Chargers
When certain players rocket up the boards, it always comes at the expense of others. Father Time is undefeated in fantasy and, if one thing is certain, aging players will undoubtedly lose value.
For the less-fun part of this series, we’re going to hone in on one team in particular: The Los Angeles Chargers. It’s a team at a unique crossroads and one that dynasty managers will want to untangle in the months to come.
Let’s start with Austin Ekeler.
After consecutive top-2 RB finishes in 2021 & 2022, the fantasy-loving veteran came crashing down to earth this season. His 26-point outburst in Week 1 seems like a distant memory after he went on to miss Weeks 2-5 with an injury.
While he had a brief resurgence from Weeks 8-10 where he averaged north of 21 points per game, his most recent stretch of games has left much to be desired. From Weeks 11-16, he finished higher than RB20 just once.
That’s a brutal way to end the fantasy season for a consensus first-round selection.
Admittedly, the Chargers offense hasn’t performed up to expectations this year.
By the end of the season, Justin Herbert (finger) will have missed the final four games of this season. Mike Williams (ACL) will miss a total of 14 games and Keenan Allen (heel) has missed consecutive games as of this writing.
The Chargers also moved on from both HC Brandon Staley & GM Tom Telesco after an embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Raiders in Week 15.
Add that all up and you have the makings of an eventual offseason for the Chargers.
What does this all mean for Ekeler? He’s 28 years old and in the last year of his current contract. After requesting a trade last offseason, he agreed to return after additional incentives were added to this season.
In what has been a down year for Ekeler, the new GM/HC regime could seek to overhaul the roster around Herbert as Ekeler, Williams, and Allen are all aging.
Over the last month, Ekeler has experienced what ultimately happens to all RBs as they age: the rapid decline of their dynasty value. He now carries a dynasty ADP of RB29.
However, despite the downward trend of his ADP (and production), this might be a situation where I buy the dip. Assuming Ekeler doesn’t return to Los Angeles, he’s going to sign with a team that he thinks can best utilize his skill set. He’s proven to be one of the most efficient pass-catchers at the position and has a nose for the end zone.
If the dynasty manager in your league is looking to cash out on Ekeler, see what the asking price is. He could be a post-hype sleeper who can provide a one/two-year window of RB2/Flex production for competing dynasty teams.
It can be fun to buy back aging, pass-catching RBs for below-market value to shore up key positions in your roster.
Let’s make sure to closely follow any and all news coming out of Los Angeles in the coming weeks and months. If his price continues to dip, we should be quick to react, if needed.
Stock Down: Keenan Allen, WR - Chargers
Sticking with the Chargers, the aforementioned Allen is going to be a unique dynasty case study this offseason.
Before his heel injury, he was having a career year. Through Week 14, his season-line was sitting at 108 / 1,243 / 7 on 150 targets.
He already set a career-high mark in receptions (108) and is on pace to break his top marks in targets (159 / 2017), receiving yards (1,393 / 2017), and TDs (8 / 2020). Assuming he plays in either/both of the final games this year, he could feasibly reset his all personal records.
However, he’s 31 years old and has one year remaining on his contract before hitting free agency.
How should we approach this from a dynasty perspective?
First, the age. He’s well on the wrong side of 30 and isn’t getting any younger. In a vacuum, his age will automatically depress his value as new draft classes enter the pool each year. Still, his style of play, chemistry with Herbert, and consistent, high-end production lends itself to a player who should continue to age well.
However, the perceived decline has already begun. Like his Charger teammate, Allen is starting to lose value quickly. His dynasty ADP now sits at WR33.
Despite missing the last two games, Allen is still the WR5 in PPR. He’s hit the following benchmarks in 13 games played:
- 10+ PPR - 12/13 games (92%)
- 15+ PPR - 7/13 games (54%)
- 20+ PPR - 6/13 games (46%)
He also has a 30+ point game and a pair of 40+ point outbursts. It’s hard to ask for more from a veteran wideout.
Consistency doesn’t just apply to his on-field production; he’s also been widely available throughout his career. He played in 16 games four times from 2017-2021. However, we’re starting to see cracks in his long-standing dependability. He appeared in just 10 games last season and has now missed at least two this season.
Depending on the stake of Allen manager's roster in your league, you could potentially wait for Allen’s value to dip even more as we enter the offseason before making a move.
While I normally don’t recommend buying age 30+ wideouts, Allen is elite and, on a per-game basis, offers league-winning upside.
Like Ekeler, let’s keep an ear to the ground on all things Chargers and be ready to pounce when we feel Allen’s value has reached a palatable point.
