We’re officially in Week 8 of the NFL season. Fantasy playoffs are right around the corner! It’s crazy how fast it goes; don’t forget to enjoy it!
In this quarterly series, I will look at players who experienced significant shifts in their dynasty values and what fantasy managers should do to stay ahead of their league.
Dynasty Stock Up
Josh Downs, WR - Colts
Rookie WR Josh Downs has quickly become one of our most-written-about players.
From his Dynasty Rookie Profile back in April, his appearance in my Dynasty Breakout Watch in September, and his multiple features in our Waiver Wire Report, we are all in on #TeamDowns.
A third-round pick by the Colts, Downs is a prototypical slot player (5’9” / 171 lbs). However, he had incredible production over his final two years at UNC. In 2021 and 2022, he totaled:
- 195 receptions
- 2,364 receiving yards
- 19 TDs
At the combine, his 10-yard split, vertical jump, and broad jump were all strong which backs up what you see on film; he creates separation with ease. Jonathan Fuller noted a few aspects of his game:
Downs’ footwork is incredibly clean, which eliminates wasted movement and helps him to get out of his breaks quickly and create separation at the catch point. Creating timely separation is also an important factor in picking up yards after the catch. This skill was on display in 2021 when Downs finished third in the country with 754 total yards after the catch.
His initial pairing with rookie QB Anthony Richardson seemed positive but not overly so. Richardson is a phenomenal athlete who relied heavily on his legs and wasn’t as polished a passer as others in his class.
However, with Richardson done for the season, it’s been Gardner Minshew time, and oh boy has it been fun.
In the four games in which Minshew started and finished, Downs averaged:
- 8.7 targets
- 6.3 receptions
- 68.8 receiving yards
- 0.5 TDs
- 16.1 PPR
Michael Pittman remains the clear No. 1 option for this offense but with Minshew at the helm, there is going to be enough volume to go around to keep both Pittman and Downs fantasy relevant. For some reason, Alec Pierce continues to run more routes than Downs but hopefully that changes soon.
Downs’ recent run of success has vaulted his dynasty ADP from almost outside the top 50 to inside the top 30 in just one month. Rookie WRs remain a cheat code in dynasty formats as they are all but guaranteed to increase in value throughout Year 1.
Downs’ price is still at a point where I would be comfortable buying. The concept of “buying high” is something I’ve been refining over the last few years. While we’re all familiar with buying low, the opposite can work if you approach it correctly.
Essentially, even if you miss the floor price of a player, it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t pay fair market value to get a good player on your team. We do want to score the most fantasy points, after all.
However, the sudden surge in dynasty value for Downs could create a window of opportunity to snag an extra share or two of Pittman. The latter's dynasty ADP (WR25) has remained stagnant over the last month. He has consecutive top-20 finishes under his belt prior to this year and is probably a safer dynasty bet.
If you can get in on the Downs hype train, definitely consider it, but if you can use the excitement to pivot to his more proven teammate, take the route without question.
Adam Thielen, WR - Panthers
When was the last time we saw a 33-year-old WR see a spike in dynasty value, especially when playing with a rookie QB (Bryce Young)?
Adam Thielen just laughs at our “age cliff” metrics.
In all seriousness, it’s insane what he’s done so far this season. In seven games played (Week 7 bye), he’s topped:
- 90% route participation seven times
- 26% target share six times
- 25% air yards six times
- 8 targets six times
- 15 PPR six times
That’s simply incredible.
Speaking of age cliffs, Ian Hartitz just wrote an incredible piece talking about veteran wideouts who are breaking the mold. Can you guess who makes the list?
Hartitz had this to say about Thielen:
Ultimately, the Panthers’ slot maven has the sort of low-aDOT role (8.1 yards, 58th among 69 qualified WR) and sure hands to believe this success can continue. Thielen finds himself atop the top of the leaderboard when it comes to most receptions without a drop this season.
- Thielen (49 receptions without a drop)
- Chris Olave (39)
- Darren Waller (35)
- Michael Thomas (34)
- Kendrick Bourne (34)
He finishes by offering this encouragement, “A legit WR1 finish is firmly in his range of outcomes with a clean bill of health thanks to nothing more than that sweet, sweet fantasy-friendly volume”
(Note: if you want the video version of the article, check it out!)
Oct 15, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) catchers a pass for a touchdown against the Miami Dophins during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
The Panthers remain winless and are bottom-ten in scoring. Even so, Thielen re-establishing himself as one of the premier slot weapons in the league has fantasy managers excited.
Thielen has also received a nice bump in dynasty rankings as well. His ADP now sits at WR48 (up from WR68 a month ago).
So how should we handle it for the rest of this year? On one hand, it’s usually not wise to hold onto a 33-year-old wideout who is changing to a team with a rookie QB.
However, it’s clearly worked out from a fantasy perspective. Much will depend on the tenor of your league. If the Thielen manager is worried about health, age, and doesn’t think this run of success will continue, that’s a perfect buying opportunity.
His usage and style of play will continue to allow him to remain productive for a bit yet. Dwain McFarland noted as much last month.
If you managed to hold onto Thielen during his transition from Minnesota to Carolina, or were simply unable to trade him away, he’s someone I’m fine hanging onto until he retires.
If you have Thielen, sit back and enjoy the ride.
Dynasty Stock Down
Calvin Ridley, WR - Jaguars
Unfortunately, we need to address a few players who were promising early in the season but, for a variety of reasons, are not panning out.
Let’s start with Calvin Ridley.
The veteran wideout’s story is well-known at this point. Prior to this season, he last played a meaningful NFL game back in Week 7 of 2021. The comeback story got off to a phenomenal start when he posted an 8/101/1 line in Week 1.
Unfortunately, that’s been his best game thus far. From Weeks 2-7, he topped 40 receiving yards just once and scored one TD. He did, however, rebound a bit this week by way of a 6 / 83 line on 10 targets.
The underlying metrics and utilization are good but not great. He’s averaging 90% route participation on the season but has just a 20% target share since Week 2.
In his latest Utilization Report, Dwain McFarland made some excellent notes about Ridley:
Ridley continues to play a full-time role and his 21% target share ranks third on the team behind Christian Kirk (23%) and Evan Engram (22%)...Against zone coverage, things spread out evenly among the threesome, but against man coverage, Lawrence hasn’t favored Ridley thus far. Kirk leads the team with a mouthwatering 34% TPRR, and Engram is second with a 28% mark. Ridley comes in a distant third at 19%...Watching Ridley, he is still beating man coverage, but with tougher assignments, Lawrence might just be opting for the better matchups.
QB Trevor Lawrence hasn’t helped matters. A popular breakout candidate this offseason, he has just eight passing TDs in seven games and has just one game with more than 280 passing yards. As a team, the Jaguars have also been pretty balanced overall with Travis Etienne scoring seven TDs on the season with six coming in his last three games.
At 28 years old, combined with missing essentially a year and a half, Ridley’s best days could be behind him. His dynasty ADP has taken a dip over the last month, going from WR23 down to WR38.
Ridley is older than fellow WR Kirk, doesn’t have the same contract as him, and hasn’t been as productive. Toss in Engram at TE, Etienne at RB, and an overall balanced offensive approach and we may need to realize that this offense won’t have a standout, elite piece consistently.
This is not to say Ridley is dead as a dynasty asset. We just need to reframe our expectations of both Ridley and this offense. If his price continues to drop, he’ll actually make for a nice buy-low candidate for competing teams in the short-to-intermediate term.
Jahan Dotson, WR - Commanders
This one hurts because I truly believe in the talent. It’s just not translating into fantasy production. WR Jahan Dotson started his NFL career strong last season by ripping off four TDs in his first four games. Injuries derailed the middle of his rookie campaign but he came back strong by totaling three scores in his final five games.
This season just…hasn’t been the same. The biggest thing that stands out is his overall lack of production. He scored double-digit fantasy points just once heading into Week 8. He also had just one game with more than 40 receiving yards (and it was 43 yards).
As a rookie (12 games), he finished with an 81% route participation, 15% target share, 15% TPRR, and 26% air yards.
Through Week 7 of this season, he had an 86% route participation, 16% target share, 13% TPRR, and 18% air yards.
Then, everything changed in Week 8. Dotson erupted for eight receptions (10 targets) for 108 receiving yards and a score. He set new season-high marks in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. His TD was his second of the year.
It was good to FINALLY see Dotson demonstrate the upside we’ve been hoping for this year.
Despite the lack of production prior to this week, Pete Overzet made the following observation back on October 13th:
But even Film Bros can agree only 140 yards after five games is disappointing after Jahan Dotson led the Commanders in targets (35) and air yard share (34.8%) over the final five games of the ‘22 season. And after five weeks with Sam Howell, Dotson has had fewer attempts lobbed his way than Kendrick Bourne.
There’s finally some reason for optimism for Dotson stans. His dynasty ADP has dropped from WR33 to WR41 over the last month which has created a unique buying window of opportunity for savvy dynasty managers.
I know we just painted the bear picture for Dotson, but everyone has value in dynasty formats, especially 23-year-old wideouts with first-round draft capital.
Remember what Pete just mentioned above? He also gave us reason for optimism. Here’s what he had to say heading into Week 6:
Here’s the number of players with a +10% target share in three areas conducive to fantasy production:
- On passes of 20 air yards or more: 5
- In the green zone (inside the 10-yard line): 4
- In obvious passing situations: 6
However, only one WR has his name in all three buckets: Dotson.
Howell is averaging more pass attempts per game (38.2) than Josh Allen (35.0) and has more passing yards (1349) than Patrick Mahomes (1287). If you can wait and see this passing game coalesce around fewer choices for Howell, bet on talent, and hold Dotson.
The team environment is promising and the Commanders appear to have stability at QB for the first time in a while.
I would be looking to acquire Dotson before his value climbs back up. It might not be possible now after his massive performance, but if/when he comes back down to earth, pounce on the opportunity.
