Dynasty Stock Watch. Risers and Fallers Ahead of the 2024 Offseason.
We’ve officially reached the NFL & fantasy offseason. The Super Bowl is behind us, and every team can now set its sights on getting ready for the 2024 season.
With the NFL Combine and NFL Draft also looming, dynasty managers can only afford so much downtime. Let’s take a peek at the dynasty stock market and see which players have seen the most movement over the last month.
Dynasty Stock Up: Offseason
Jordan Love, QB - Packers
It was a long time coming, but first-year starter Jordan Love finally got his shot. From an off-field perspective, he’s handled himself extremely well since he was drafted back in 2020.
Despite being a first-round draft pick who was stuck on the bench behind a future Hall of Fame QB in Aaron Rodgers, Love never complained or asked for a trade, instead quietly biding his time. So following the eventual departure of Rodgers to the Jets, it was awesome to see him take the league by storm over the second half of the 2023 season.
The Packers' “rebuild” year ended with a tough divisional-round loss to the 49ers, but Love & Co. gave Packers fans plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the future. From Week 10 on, he was arguably one of the best QBs in the league.
If you want more data on why Love's metrics showed him as a top QB over the second half of last season, here’s what Ian Hartitz had to say following their upset win over the Cowboys in the Wild Card round:
"Here's how Love ranks in various metrics among 38 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks from Week 9 through the Wild Card round:
- EPA per dropback: +0.294 (No. 2)
- CPOE: +5.9% (No. 2)
- PFF Pass Grade: 91.9 (No. 1)
- Passer rating: 111.6 (No. 2)
- Yards per attempt: 8 (No. 7)"
Love certainly passed the eye test and looked the part overall, but seeing Love throw those accurate, deep bombs over the middle of the field off his back foot really got me excited. The Rodgers-esque mannerisms do come through once in a while with Love, and it’s fun to see the seamless QB transition in Green Bay.
As of this writing, Love is the dynasty QB9. Just to show you how quickly things can change, he was the QB18 back on September 1st.
In spite of the recent jump up in dynasty ADP, Love is still viewed as a low-end QB1, which actually still makes him a buy in superflex dynasty formats. Here are the only QBs I’d comfortably draft ahead of Love right now in superflex dynasty startups (in no particular order):
I’m not knocking reigning offensive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud, who had an incredible rookie season. However, the combination of a stable organization, young skill-position players around him, and a near-elite head coach gives Love the slight edge over Stroud for me in dynasty.
You can start drafting Love TODAY on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE:
Drake London, WR - Falcons
The Falcons selected WR Drake London with the No. 8 overall pick back in 2022, and he’s performed admirably since considering the circumstances.
- 2022: 72 receptions, 866 yards, and four TDs
- 2023: 69 receptions, 905 yards, and two TDs
Given the inconsistent QB play he's suffered, London's had a couple of fairly productive years in the league. London flashed the upside we all know he has with a pair of top-five fantasy WR finishes in 2023, though he still had a whopping nine weeks with fantasy finishes outside of the top-36 WRs.
Mercifully, Atlanta moved on from Arthur Smith and hired Raheem Morris to be their next head coach. And with the hiring of Zac Robinson from the Rams to be the Falcons' new offensive coordinator, there's hope yet for London as well as Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. There's still a glaring question mark at QB, but dynasty managers are already more excited about London heading into 2024 than they were at any point during Arthur Smith's tenure.
London is currently the dynasty WR12 after his ADP had a rollercoaster ride all season. He bottomed out at dynasty WR24 back in October but has steadily climbed over the last two months.
Despite the Falcons’ offensive struggles (26th in points scored), London’s broader utilization profile remained strong, and his underlying metrics hint at untapped upside if the offense as a whole can finally get on track:
- 87% route participation
- 22% targets per route run (TPRR)
- 23% target share
- 31% air yards share
His back-end WR1 ADP signifies the confidence that dynasty managers have in London long term. Still only 22 years old, London could take a big step forward in his development with the potential to become a true No. 1 WR for the Falcons and in fantasy.
Dynasty Stock Down: Offseason
Stefon Diggs, WR - Bills
As certain players rise in the rankings, others must fall. However, don't be too quick to overlook older veterans who have decreased in price to the point where they could be a value to a competing roster.
Once again, the Bills found themselves on the wrong end of a matchup with Mahomes during the playoffs this past year. Josh Allen remains a high-end fantasy producer who can support other elite options, but both he and teammate Stefon Diggs hit some rough patches in 2023.
Over Allen’s final ten games, he threw more than one TD in a game just three times. At first glance, his fantasy scores and finishes seemed fine, but Allen's production was buoyed by his rushing ability. In turn, that dip in passing production hurt Diggs's production. Over the same 10-game stretch, Diggs scored just two TDs and never topped 90 receiving yards in a game.
Dynasty managers have taken notice and have responded accordingly. It also doesn't help that Diggs turned 30 years old back in November, which has compounded the effect of his scant production late in the year, and he currently sits as the WR29 per dynasty ADP. A mere three months ago, he was the WR11. Life sure comes at you quickly sometimes.
This is where I would strongly consider buying the dip on Diggs. While you certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag so to speak, Diggs’s underlying metrics remained strong over the second half of the 2023 season, finishing the year with:
- 90% route participation
- 27% TPRR
- 30% target share
- 34% air yards share
Those are elite numbers. As mentioned, Allen and the passing game as a whole struggled after the change at offensive coordinator. I'd be more concerned if Allen had been posting huge games as a passer with Diggs not involved.
Looking ahead to 2024, it sounds like Diggs should remain in Buffalo and run it back with Allen, which bodes well for fantasy managers. Diggs is a veteran WR with a proven track record of production tied to a great QB, and you can acquire him for far less than other older WRs with elite potential right now, which makes him a potential buy candidate this offseason.
Cooper Kupp, WR - Rams
Cooper Kupp has struggled with injuries since his record-setting 2021 campaign. He played in just nine games in 2022 and 12 games this past season, and Kupp will be 31 years old this summer. The missed time combined with the emergence of Puka Nacua has cratered Kupp’s dynasty value.
As with Diggs above: different player; same argument.
- Aging veteran WR
- Dip in production in 2023
- Fall in dynasty ADP
- Strong underlying utilization
And in the same way as Diggs, put all those factors together, and you have an ideal situation to buy the dip on Kupp as well.
The Rams have been an efficient offense under Sean McVay, and that should continue in 2024 with Matthew Stafford under center and a strong running game with Kyren Williams in the backfield.
Even though Kupp played second-fiddle to Puka in his record-breaking rookie season, Kupp still maintained a significant role in the Rams’ passing attack. While the marks mostly favor Puka, don’t overlook the 92% route participation, 26% target share, and 28% air yards share that Kupp saw in 2023.
The Rams' offense is concentrated around its top two WRs, and the silver lining is that defenses needing to account for Puka on the other side could help free up a savvy veteran WR like Kupp for some big plays next season.
Currently, Kupp is the dynasty WR33 after he was as high as the WR13 at one point during the regular season. While he may no longer be a top-12 dynasty WR given his age and the emergence of Puka, WR33 is far too low for Kupp.
Like Diggs, he plays a position where 30 isn't too old, and he has the right skillset in the right offensive scheme with a capable QB. Kupp's current dynasty ADP makes him a compelling buy for dynasty managers looking to contend in 2024.
