Dynasty Stock Watch. Risers and Fallers During 2024 Free Agency.

With the NFL Combine behind us and the NFL Draft just around the corner, it’s time for dynasty managers to start getting back up to speed on the fantasy landscape.

Let’s take a peek at the dynasty stock market and see which players have seen the most movement over the last few weeks and what dynasty managers should do with this new information.

Dynasty Stock Up

J.J. McCarthy, QB - FA

When I think of the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft, the player I’m probably most curious to follow is J.J. McCarthy. I’m certainly no Michigan fan (#OnWisconsin), but I feel like McCarthy has the widest range of outcomes of any QB in this rookie class.

To highlight that range, Matthew Freedman dropped his first 2024 NFL Mock Draft back on February 12th and didn’t even include McCarthy in Round 1. He was listed as a “...player I currently view as residing on the borderline of Rounds 1-2”.

Fast forward to February 26th, and Freedman had McCarthy going 12th overall to the Broncos in the second edition of his 2024 NFL Mock Draft. That's a huge change in a short period of time!

And now, in the third installment of his 2024 NFL Mock Draft, Freedman once again bumped McCarthy up with the Vikings selecting him at No. 11 overall.

The ascent and growing buzz sound promising, but we'll have to wait to see what happens on draft night. But besides winning a National Championship, here’s some added context for what McCarthy accomplished during his two seasons as the starter:

• 2022 – 322 pass attempts, 208 completions, 2,719 yards, 22 TDs, 5 INTs
• 2023 – 332 pass attempts, 240 completions, 2,991 yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs

His box score didn't wow anyone, and it’s been argued that wins are not a QB stat, but what if McCarthy is just a gamer?

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Following the NFL Combine, Freedman noted this about McCarthy: “Good word of mouth at the event, sufficient size (219 lbs.), and elite agility (6.82-second three-cone).”

The post-NFL Combine bump is encouraging, as is the latest buzz of interest from both Denver & Minnesota. The Broncos have officially moved on from Russell Wilson, who's now a Steeler, and Kirk Cousins just signed with the Falcons, so the Vikings have a hole at QB now as well.

We’ll ultimately find out where McCarthy lands, and how early in the draft, in just over a month. I would anticipate him going pretty early, though. NFL teams know how important the QB position is, and presumptive game-manager or not, McCarthy is going to get the draft capital to warrant significant interest for dynasty managers, especially those in superflex leagues.

Freedman sums up McCarthy perfectly, “With his strong 2023 campaign (72.3% completion rate, 9.8 AY/A), checks-the-box size (6’2” and 219 lbs.), elite agility (6.82-second three-cone drill), and babyface age (21 years old), McCarthy has underappreciated long-term upside.”

Zach Ertz, TE - Commanders

After a three-year stint in Arizona, Zach Ertz is back in the NFC East. Since his departure from the Eagles, Ertz had seen his production dip in large part due to injuries over the last two years. However, he demonstrated that he can still ball when given the chance.

Last season, Ertz only appeared in seven games but averaged more than six targets per game. Zach Ertz stats">And overall, his underlying metrics weren’t bad. Ertz's route participation, targets per route run (TPRR), and target share certainly dipped after the season started, but he flashed enough to warrant consideration as a late-round option next season.

Now Ertz reunites with Kliff Kingsbury, whom he has familiarity with from his days as a Cardinal. The Commanders are also poised to draft a rookie QB this spring (we currently have them mocked to select Jayden Daniels at No. 2 overall.

Currently, Ertz is the dynasty TE43. That makes him essentially free. He’s unlikely to be a league-winner, but at his current cost, Ertz is at least worth stashing as a viable depth option who could still earn a decent target share from his rookie QB.

Honorable Mentions

Some QBs have found new homes, while others have stayed where they were in 2023. Cousins signing in Atlanta immediately boosted the value of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Baker Mayfield inked a three-year, $100 million extension to stay in Tampa Bay, which should help maintain his dynasty value as well as that of Mike Evans, who's also staying. Gardner Minshew signed with the Raiders and could be the starter come Week 1, which resuscitates his near-dead dynasty value.

At RB, Saquon Barkley signed with the Eagles and figures to assume lead-back duties after D’Andre Swift landed with the Bears. Josh Jacobs signed with the Packers and looks poised to assume lead-back duties for an ascending offense while Aaron Jones has since gone to the Vikings on a one-year deal. All these deals for free agent RBs are great for boosting their dynasty value, but they may further weaken the dynasty values of a weak incoming rookie class of RBs.

Dynasty Stock Down

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - Seahawks

I’m starting to enjoy the dynasty offseason more than the actual NFL season itself. While it’s certainly fun to set my lineups and dominate my opponents during the fall, the research and roster construction elements of the offseason are just a bit more fun to me.

When evaluating incoming prospects, it’s important to scout the player and not the helmet (where they went to college). At the same time, while it’s awesome to wish our promising rookie players into prime landing spots (any WR with Patrick Mahomes, for example) we shouldn't overreact to a rookie's eventual landing spot.

I’m having to remind myself of that idea when looking at Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN entered the 2023 season as the No. 1 WR in our Rookie WR Model. His youth, draft capital (No. 20 overall), and strong underlying metrics pushed him to the top of what is turning out to be a pretty strong 2023 rookie class overall. JSN’s landing spot with the Seahawks certainly isn’t bad for his long term prospects, but it looks like fantasy managers may have to be a bit more patient than they initially anticipated, as Tyler Lockett recently restructured his contract to stay in Seattle for 2024.

On top of Lockett staying, D.K. Metcalf is also a proven commodity at WR. Together in 2023, Lockett and Metcalf combined for 241 targets (42% of the team’s total), 2,008 receiving yards (48%), and 13 TDs (57%). Essentially, half of the Seahawks' passing attack went through those two. Even still, JSN earned his way onto the field as a viable WR3. He finished with a line of 63-628-4 on 93 targets as a rookie. In a vacuum, that's not bad at all, but it wasn't what dynasty managers had hoped for from the first rookie WR off the board last year. 

A tough rookie campaign (relative to expectations) and unfortunate contract news ahead of him on the depth chart has caused JSN’s dynasty ADP to slip. He was the dynasty WR14 at the start of the calendar year but is now down to the dynasty WR26.Jaxon Smith-Njigba dynasty rank chart">When it comes to “buying the dip”, JSN could end up being a great example. I believe in his prospect profile and, believe it or not, his landing spot.

Seattle provides strong coaching and a great overall team environment that makes me believe they’ll figure out how to best use JSN. At his current dynasty WR26 valuation, JSN can still easily surpass that mark in both the short and long term.

Tee Higgins, WR - Bengals

The speculation surrounding Tee Higgins and his place with the Bengals has been swirling for quite some time. It was always assumed that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase would each secure their massive contracts, which would then in all likelihood leave Higgins as the odd man out.

Unfortunately, it’s now looking like that might just happen. On Monday, it was reported that Higgins had requested a trade.

Higgins has produced well enough throughout his career to warrant decent money from some NFL team, and I hope for his sake that he'll get that financial security.

Cincinnati used the franchise tag on Higgins to the tune of over $21 million. But while the Bengals likely wanted to run it back with their core of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins for one more Super Bowl run in 2024, it sounds like that a trade could possibly now take place instead.

Minnesota Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans (21) breaks up a deep pass intended for Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) in overtime of the NFL Week 15 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Minnesota Vikings at PayCor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023. The Bengals won on an overtime field goal. Photo Credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

I still believe in his talent and what he could bring to a new franchise, though Higgins may not be quite as productive on a new team without Burrow under center. Still, Higgins has a shot to catch passes from Caleb Williams in Chicago or Bryce Young in Carolina and grow within a new system, perhaps even with Caleb Williams or another 2024 rookie QB.

At his current price as the dynasty WR25, I'm still in on Higgins, and he'd be a strong buy candidate for me if his value were to drop further. For more free agency news, make sure to check out our 2024 NFL Free Agency Tracker.

Honorable Mentions

Mac Jones was traded to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick, which is brutal for a once-hyped QB. The 2024 rookie RB class doesn’t look great based on all these free RB signings, but there could still be some surprises. Let's see what happens when the NFL Draft rolls around in a month or so.