The sun never sets on dynasty leagues. Sam Wallace details a few players that dynasty GMs should be targeting this offseason.
Players you NEED to Target in Dynasty
The offseason is the perfect time for dynasty managers to make moves. With everyone focused on the NFL Combine and the upcoming NFL Draft, there are edges we can exploit that add value to our team. With that in hand, here are five players you should kick the tires on this week.
Aaron Jones
Offseason drama has become the new norm for Packers fans, as once again, the world waits to see what will happen with Aaron Rodgers.
Thankfully, the stable presence of another Aaron is just what this offense (and your dynasty team) needs.
Aaron Jones signed a four-year, $48 million contract with Green Bay back in 2021 and recently took a pay cut to remain with the team.
Normally, I don’t recommend trading for a 28-year-old RB in dynasty, but here's why there’s an edge to breaking rank once in a while.
Jones has finished as a top-10 fantasy RB for four straight seasons, but it's how he’s managed to produce that makes me willing to pursue him.
Outside of his 16-TD season in 2019, Jones hasn’t been dependent on any single form of production for his fantasy output. He has handled a high volume of rushing attempts but has also gotten it done through the air.
Here are Jones's per-season averages since 2019:
- 205 rushing attempts
- 1,027 rushing yards
- 67 targets
- 51 receptions
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jones has graded out as the RB6, RB15, RB7, and RB2 over the last four seasons.
Regardless of who is under center, Jones will have a significant role. He’s been an integral part of Green Bay's offense dating back to 2019 and could be asked to do even more if Rodgers were to depart this offseason.
KeepTradeCut (KTC) currently has Jones ranked as the dynasty RB26 with a trade value equivalent to the 2.05 rookie pick in superflex formats.
I’d glad trade an early second-round rookie pick to land Jones on a dynasty squad if pushing for a title.
Treylon Burks
From an aging RB to a young WR, let’s pivot to Treylon Burks.
A lot can change in a season.
Last September, Pro Football Network (PFN) ranked Burks as the No. 3 rookie WR behind only Drake London and Garrett Wilson and as the fifth rookie overall in the 2022 draft class behind also RBs Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III.
Fast forward six months, and Burks is now the No. 8 ranked player from his class in dynasty.
Is it too soon to write him off? Absolutely.
We have only a limited sample of production scattered across 11 games in his rookie season. The hope was that Burks could fill the No. 1 WR role vacated by AJ Brown's trade to Philadelphia last year, but that possibility is still very much in play heading into 2023.
It’s still early in the offseason with the NFL Draft coming up, but Burks is currently the only viable receiving option the Titans have on their roster.
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo flashed some upside and could contribute, but the team recently released veteran WR Robert Woods, leaving Burks as the only noteworthy wide receiver atop the depth chart.
And after having missed the final three games of the 2022 season with an ankle injury, it sounded as though Ryan Tannehill might've played his last snap in Tennessee. However, recent news makes it sound like he’ll be back for another season.
If Burks and Tannehill can both remain healthy in 2023, they could build on the success we started to see in 2022. Dwain McFarland had this to say about Burks in his Week 12 Utilization Report:
- In six games, the rookie has three superstar-level TPRR performances
- Talent is the No. 1 factor for WRs, and the best way to understand talent is the ability to demand targets
- The first-round NFL Draft pick leads the Titans in TPRR (23%) and doesn’t have much competition for targets
The stars are aligning this offseason, as Burks still has talent, and the Titans' depth chart remains thin.
Earlier this week, it was reported that the Tennessee is “shopping Derrick Henry”. If Henry were to be traded, the identity of this Titans offense would undoubtedly shift, and a more pass-heavy offense would bode well for Burks's fantasy potential.
KTC has Burks ranked as the dynasty WR22 with a trade value equivalent to the 1.10 rookie pick in superflex formats.
That valuation feels fair, but I wouldn't mind being a touch more aggressive in landing Burks depending on the makeup of your roster.
Make sure to check out our updated rookie rankings on the Fantasy Life website!
Jakobi Meyers
Remember when Jakobi Meyers was allergic to scoring TDs?
Good times.
In all seriousness, he didn’t score a single rushing or receiving TD until his third year in the league, but Meyers has quietly finished as the fantasy WR30 and WR28 over the last two seasons.
Despite the Patriots’ offensive struggles overall, Meyers had a solid 2022 campaign:
- 23% target share
- 22% targets per route run (TPRR)
- 1.90 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 13.0 fantasy points per game (PPG)
As one of the top WRs in this free agent class, Meyers has a great skillset to offer whichever team decides to open their wallets for the 26 year-old.
Last season, Meyers played 60% of his snaps from the slot and 38% of his snaps out wide. He’s versatile enough to contribute at varying levels of the field and has demonstrated target-earning ability.
KTC has Meyers ranked as the dynasty WR44 with a trade value equivalent to the 2.09 rookie pick in superflex formats, which is a bargain.
Perhaps I’m too bullish on his prospects, but with Meyers having posted back-to-back WR30 or better seasons in New England, he can be even more productive with his next team. Whichever team gives him a new contract will surely be incentivized to feature him in the passing offense.
I would gladly send an early second-round rookie pick for Meyers even without yet knowing his landing spot for next season.
Jake Ferguson
There’s no better feeling than landing a relatively obscure player before he becomes fantasy-relevant.
I think TE Jake Ferguson could be that next guy.
As a rookie for the Cowboys, he played behind veteran Dalton Schultz. However, Ferguson posted nice numbers in the two games that Schultz missed in 2022.
In those two games in Week 3 and Week 6 of last season, Ferguson averaged:
- 8.6 fantasy points
- 4.5 targets
- 3.0 receptions
It was encouraging to see Ferguson step up when given the opportunity even though he averaged only 40% of the offensive snaps on the year and saw a 10% or greater target share in just three games.
The production wasn't much, but he showed the potential to take a step forward in 2023.
It’s looking less and less likely that Schultz will stay in Dallas. Having played on the franchise tag in 2022, Schultz is now likely in line for a bigger payday than the Cowboys are willing to offer.
Closely monitoring all relevant offseason news - franchise tags, pending free agents, and even rumors - can help give you an edge over your dynasty league mates.
Ferguson will be on a cheap rookie contract for the next few seasons and has demonstrated an ability to contribute as the primary TE on a high-scoring offense. He’s the ideal trade target for a team looking to make a low-risk, high-reward move.
KTC has Ferguson ranked as the dynasty TE26 with a trade value equivalent to the 3.11 or 3.12 rookie pick in superflex formats.
I’m generally aggressive in acquiring cheap, young TEs that can develop into fantasy contributors, especially in TE premium scoring formats. I'd be willing to send a late second-round rookie pick to acquire Ferguson in dynasty, but he's likely even cheaper to acquire in many leagues.
Nov 24, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) in action during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Noah Gray
Many of the same arguments for Ferguson above also apply to Noah Gray.
Admit it, it’s hard to look past his landing spot, as Gray could be the next man up if future Hall of Fame TE Travis Kelce were to retire in the not-too-distant future.
But sometimes, opportunity and situation are enough to elevate a player's dynasty prospects, and most would agree that Kansas City has the best offense in the league with Patrick Mahomes at the helm.
Gray has logged only 335 total receiving yards in his two years in the NFL, but it’s the underlying details that make me look twice at him.
This season, he played 52% of the offensive snaps and recorded at least one target in every single game.
Go ahead, you can roll your eyes at that last stat, but I love that Gray served as a consistent, albeit fringe, option in the Chiefs' passing offense. He averaged more than 51 snaps per game and played on both offense as well as on special teams.
His growing role and snap share demonstrate the team’s trust in him, which is why I am scooping up and stashing Gray in as many deep dynasty leagues as I can.
KTC has Gray ranked as the dynasty TE31 with a trade value equivalent to the 4.02 rookie pick in superflex formats.
At that valuation, Gray is essentially free. Any player valued at less than a third-round rookie pick is generally regarded as throw-in during trade talks. Could Gray be the heir apparent to Kelce? Maybe, maybe not. But at the price of a mid third-round rookie pick or less, I'd be happy to stash him on my bench and find out.
Make sure to check out our updated rookie rankings on the Fantasy Life website!
