Fantasy Football Breakouts: Four players to target in dynasty leagues
The breakout might not happen this year or next, but here are four wide receivers that dynasty managers need to keep an eye on for the future.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR - Packers
If you haven't been keeping up with the Dontayvion Wicks news this offseason, welcome aboard the hype train. As a rookie, he posted a paltry line of 39 / 581 / 4 on just 58 targets. Still, he's earning comps to Davante Adams and there are underlying metrics to support his ascension.
Chris Allen recently tabbed Wicks as a sleeper candidate for 2024:
Objectively, Wicks’ contextualized workload emphasizes he has more value than his ADP suggests.
- Play-Action Targets: 2nd (team target share), 1st (targets per route run)
- Third-/Fourth-Down Targets: 3rd, 1st
- YPRR: 2nd
- First Downs per Target: 1st
On a per-game basis, he was effectively the fourth option last season so it remains to be seen exactly what his role will be heading into Year 2.
The intrigue for this Wicks and this offense is legitimate, especially as Jordan Love enters his second season as the starter. With a crowded room of pass-catchers, the breakout season might not happen right away. However, there are still variables that could help factor into his rise on the depth chart.
If Christian Watson, who only appeared in nine games last season, can't stay healthy, Wicks essentially becomes the primary downfield option. Jayden Reed is traditionally a slot receiver and Romeo Doubs doesn't have the same physical traits as a deep threat.
Regardless of what happens this season, dynasty managers should be looking to add Wicks now for the future.
Ja'Lynn Polk, WR - Patriots
Rookies are such a fun bet in dynasty leagues, especially ones that were not Round 1 draft picks. Regardless of what happens in Year 1, they really can't lose value. This is how I'm approaching these next three players.
The Patriots drafted Ja'Lynn Polk with the 37th pick as they now seek to surround Drake Maye with as much help as possible.
Polk was a versatile player coming out of Washington, where he played alongside Rome Odunze. He lined up all over the field which gives the Patriots flexibility about how they use him. That's super helpful for a team rebuilding its offensive core.
In fact, during his final two seasons at Washington, Polk played 37.3% and 41.1% of his snaps from the slot, respectively.
Polk came in at No. 8 in our Rookie WR Model as a Tier 3 option. His age (22), draft capital, and landing spot are reasons enough to be optimistic for the future at his current price point.
The Patriots can't be too picky about their offensive weapons right now as they project to be one of the worst teams in 2024. Their receiver room consists of veterans Kendrick Bourne, DeMario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, and Jalen Reagor (to name a few) and fellow rookie Javon Baker.
There's a clear path ahead for Polk to build chemistry with Maye over the next few years as this team tries to turn things around offensively.
Jermaine Burton, WR - Bengals
Understanding team environments, contract situations, and draft capital can all help a savvy dynasty manager make more informed decisions throughout the year. For the Cincinnati Bengals, the major storyline has been the future of Tee Higgins.
It does feel like 2024 will be Higgins' last in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow is already under contract and superstar teammate Ja'Marr Chase will soon get his bag.
So, to future-proof their offense, the team went out and drafted Jermaine Burton in Round 3 (80th overall). The loss of Tyler Boyd only increased their need to have another viable weapon both now and moving forward.
Burton is an older prospect who fell to Round 3. He wound up sliding in at WR12 in the Rookie WR Model.
Last season, over half of Burton’s receiving yards came on pass attempts of 20+ yards, which is the top mark for this rookie class. Also, his PFF grade on those routes is the sixth-best in his class.
Sometimes, dynasty football doesn't have to be hard. All I need to know is the Bengals drafted a talented, above-average athlete from a high-end program and he'll get to play alongside Burrow and Chase for the foreseeable future. It might take a few years for Burton to find his role but in the post-Higgins era, the WR2 job is his to lose.
Devontez Walker, WR - Ravens
Selected in the fourth round by the Baltimore Ravens, Devontez Walker's high-end athletic profile jumps off the page.
To give some context to this chart, Chris Allen wrote up an excellent prospect profile on Walker and had this to say:
Big plays are a constant across Walker’s metrics. And I’m specifically choosing the word “big” instead of “explosive” here. In his second year at Kent State, Walker accounted for 11 of the 17 passing TDs thrown during the regular season. He produced the third-most first downs at UNC. Accordingly, his target share continued to dominate the competition once he became a starter.
To put it simply, he's essentially been an outside-only type of wideout throughout his career. Thankfully, his landing spot could help offset some of these concerns. His athletic ability isn't going away and he's tied to a top-end offense.
Lamar Jackson shattered his career-best mark in passing attempts (457), passing completions (307), and passing yards (3,678) last season so there's reason for optimism that a downfield threat like Walker can fit in well alongside Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews.
The Ravens lack a sure-thing at WR2 as Flowers and Andrews (TE) handled much of the load last season. Walker could develop nicely in this offense and turn into a regular fantasy contributor down the road. That makes him a priority target for me from a long-term perspective.
