Just like that, we're halfway through the NFL regular season. Even more significant is the rapid arrival of the fantasy football playoffs in just a few weeks. With another quarter of the season behind us, Sam Wallace takes a look at the dynasty landscape to see which players have increased or decreased their stock and what that means for dynasty managers.

Buy High On Brian Thomas Jr. In Dynasty Leagues

With so much attention focused on Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas has quietly put together an impressive first half of his rookie campaign. He's quickly establishing rapport with Trevor Lawrence and has the underlying metrics that we want to see in an ascending rookie talent.

 

We've seen both his upside (three top-10 finishes) and his floor (top finishes outside the top-50). Even so, he hasn't totally hurt your fantasy team outside of one week. He's been startable every week on what has been a disappointing offense.

Thomas entered the league by coming in at No. 4 in our Rookie WR Model. He was joined in Tier 2 by Rome Odunze and there's already been plenty more reasons to be excited about Thomas' future outlook compared to Odunze at the midway point of this season.

Looking to the rest of this season, there's reason to believe that Thomas could take an even bigger leap in the weeks ahead. The Jaguars lost Christian Kirk (collarbone) for the season and, even with Thomas (chest) being considered day-to-day, the rookie should take on an even larger role.

From a dynasty perspective, I would buy high on Thomas. He's tied to Lawrence and this offense for the next several years at least and has the underlying metrics and traits to develop into an even more valuable asset. His current crowd-sourced dynasty ranking of WR9 illustrates just how high the community thinks he can rise.

For even more reasons to be excited about Thomas, check out Dwain McFarland's latest Utilization Report where he had this to say:

"Thomas UPGRADES to borderline WR1 status once healthy."

Pump The Brakes On Tucker Kraft?

The Packers offense has been fun to watch this season. They keep finding different ways to win based on the availability of Jordan Love.

They've demonstrated an ability to run the ball effectively, air it out to their pass-catchers, force timely turnovers, and, in recent weeks, have a reliable kicking game.

One beneficiary of this offensive output is second-year TE Tucker Kraft, who is quickly rising in the dynasty rankings.

Kraft slotted in at No. 5 in last year's Rookie TE Model. He ranked right alongside now-teammate Luke Musgrave.

 

He's been playing well this season and certainly has the athletic traits to make him a viable downfield threat to opposing defenses. However, fantasy managers should be realistic about how he's getting his production.

In games where he hasn't scored a TD, he's never topped 6.0 PPR points. That's … not good. You certainly don't want to be that TD-dependent, especially if you're not getting the necessary volume on a consistent basis.

 

 

On the season, Kraft sports a 14% target share and a 7% air yards share. Those are objectively terrible numbers. Yes, he's found the end zone five times already but if doesn't score a TD, you're left with a useless asset that week.

Kraft has vaulted into the top 10 in dynasty rankings. I like him, especially as a Packer fan, and wouldn't mind holding him for now, but Green Bay has too many other weapons. They spread the ball around too well for me to have faith that Kraft can deliver on a consistent basis.

Yes, being tied to Love and this offense long-term is exciting and is the exact situation I want in my dynasty players, but not quite at this price point. The two best options are to pivot off Kraft to another similarly valued TE or just sit tight and enjoy the spike weeks when they happen, but there's no reason to panic buy or sell.

Anthony Richardson - Nothing To Do But Hold?

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Anthony Richardson has gone from a foundational dynasty asset and franchise QB to being benched by his own coaching staff in just 10 career starts.

Coming out of the weekend, head coach Shane Steichen said "We are evaluating everything" when asked about Richardson heading into Week 9. Then, on Tuesday afternoon, it was announced that the Colts would be benching Richardson for Joe Flacco.

I guess this is what happens when you sub yourself out of a game because … you're tired.

For more on that, Pete Overzet wrote up an amazing reaction titled, “Anthony Richardson is broken”

Just how bad has this season been? Let's take a look at his underlying metrics.

 

He has just ONE game with a completion percentage above 50%. Pete also mentioned the following:

"He now ranks 222nd in completion rate out of 225 qualifying QBs since the year 2000. Do not look at the names surrounding him on this list if you don't want to vomit."

It's gotten bad very quickly. It just serves as another unfortunate reminder of how fickle both the NFL and fantasy can be. Both are very much a "what have you done for me lately" business and Richardson isn't doing much to give the Colts (or fantasy managers) much confidence.

From mid-September to late October, Richardson's dynasty ranking has fallen from QB6 to QB20. All dynasty managers can do right now is hold, sit tight, and hope for the best. We'd love to see more from Richardson (like, you know, NOT taking yourself out of the game because you're tired), so let's hope the Colts can figure something out soon.

Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold Travis Etienne In Dynasty Leagues?

As one Jaguar rises the ranks, another (albeit at a different position) has been tumbling down the boards in recent weeks.

Travis Etienne has gone from being viewed as one of the premier high-end / pass-catching RBs in the league to ceding touches to someone named Tank (no offense, Mr. Bigsby).

Etienne began this season by tallying between 11 and 13 rushing attempts in four straight games. He did score two TDs but was otherwise underwhelming from a fantasy standpoint. Then, he injured his hamstring and things have been going sideways ever since.

He missed Weeks 7 and 8 on the heels of actually scoring negative points in Week 6 (three rushing attempts for -1 yard and no receptions).

Tank Bigsby, on the other hand, has rushed for 75+ yards in four of his last five games and has four rushing TDs in that span. He's certainly looking like the more dependable, explosive option out of the Jaguars backfield.

So what does this mean for those who roster Etienne? He's seen his dynasty value plummet from RB7 at the start of the season to RB23 as of this writing. That's a sharp decline that's left a bad taste for those who've been holding him.

At this point, hold him. There's not much current trade value and he still is young. Hopefully, once he gets past this injury, he'll have a more successful second half of the season. For now, all you can do is wait and be patient.