Fantasy Football Dynasty Stock Watch: How's Hollywood Brown Trending?
Training camps are officially underway and we are so close to actual football games being played. Let's check in on the market and identify four players whose situations dynasty managers should keep a close eye on.
Dynasty Stock Up
Hollywood Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Whether you're a fan or not, one of the more compelling storylines this season is going to be watching the Chiefs go for the three-peat. The rest of the league had a prime opportunity to knock them off last season when they were 15th in scoring and 15th in yards per game, and had to go on the road twice in the playoffs (Buffalo and Baltimore).
Alas, here we are. The Chiefs brought back Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, signed Hollywood Brown, and drafted Xavier Worthy. Toss in some untimely trolling of Patrick Mahomes by the Raiders and the league better buckle up.
Brown is the intriguing one, especially in dynasty formats. Kelce is aging while Rice and Worthy are Year 2 and Year 1 players, respectively. Brown (27 years old) is squarely in his prime and has garnered 100+ targets in four consecutive seasons.
Fantasy Life projects Brown to finish as the WR33. Here's his cohort to give you a sense of similar players we have in that range:
Of that group, he offers the ideal blend of targets, receptions, yards, and TDs. Oh, and he gets to play with the greatest QB in the league. We also project Brown to lead his receiving room this year.
Matthew Freedman has Brown ranked as his dynasty WR44. If I'm a manager looking to add a piece to my competing roster, I'm willing to make some moves to land Brown. As mentioned, Kelce is aging and (finally) looked like he lost a step last season. Rice has off-the-field issues looming and Worthy is still a rookie.
Let's take a look at our Trade Rater for a potential trade suggestion.
Zamir White has been a trendy name this offseason and he's set to assume lead-back duties for the Raiders. Depending on your roster construction, Brown might have a bit more value for you this year.
Brown is in the sweet spot of age, production history, talent, and environment. He's someone I'm willing to be a tad higher on than most for this season and next. His dynasty stock should be trending higher than where it is and dynasty managers should be quick to capitalize.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Despite being unexpectedly thrust into the lead role after Nick Chubb went down with a horrific knee injury in Week 2, Jerome Ford answered the call in a big way. He notched three top-10 finishes in his first five games, topped 10+ PPR in 12 games, and finished as the RB16.
In the end, he topped both 200 rushing attempts and 800 rushing yards, and scored four rushing TDs. Perhaps even more exciting, especially for fantasy purposes, he garnered 63 targets, hauling in 44 of them for 319 yards and five additional TDs.
Chubb is recovering from a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus in his left knee, and began training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. However, early reports are that he's looking fast and isn't wearing a brace or a wrap on his surgically repaired knee. The big question that fantasy managers will have to answer this fall is: How early is too early to draft Chubb?
The Fantasy Life Projections seem pretty split on both Ford and Chubb's prospects.
For the purposes of this article, we're only worried about the dynasty implications of Ford, not how many carries he may split with Chubb in 2024.
Ford, 24 years old, is coming off a phenomenal season where he demonstrated his ability to earn meaningful touches at a high rate, both in the rushing and passing game. Chubb is four years older and coming off a terrible injury. I'm certainly not one to bet against someone like Chubb, but, for dynasty purposes, the more hype Chubb gets this offseason, the more Ford I'll be buying in my dynasty leagues.
Fantasy managers don't often get a glimpse at the future of a specific position like we saw with Ford last year. It's also rare for there to be a second opportunity to get in on the action. Ford has cemented himself as the future of this backfield and, even if Chubb splits touches this season, I'm confident in Ford as a longer-term dynasty asset.
Dynasty Stock Down
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
Even when everything lines up on paper—draft capital, age, talent, and landing spot—sometimes it just doesn't work out. That's what's happening to second-year RB Kendre Miller.
Drafted on Day 2 last year by the New Orleans Saints, Miller looked like he was in a prime spot to take over the backfield. A young, productive tailback who came in at RB6 in our Rookie RB Model, he failed to fully take advantage of a down year from both Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
Miller appeared in just eight games and only had two weekly finishes inside the top 36. The rest of his underlying metrics weren't great either, as he only had three games where he reached double-digit rushing-attempt share.
The Saints are running it back with the same RB room and this offseason hasn't done Miller any favors. He's already missing time with a hamstring injury and his head coach was pretty vocal about his displeasure with Miller's lack of availability.
Yes, both Kamara and Williams are 29 years old, whereas Miller just turned 22, but there aren't many positives besides age going Miller's way right now. If he can't turn things around and get back on the field soon, he may no longer factor into the team's future plans.
I would love to be wrong on Miller, but his dynasty stock is certainly trending in the wrong direction.
Malachi Corley, WR, New York Jets
The New York Jets selected Malachi Corley in Round 3 this past spring. A four-year player at Western Kentucky, he tallied some impressive numbers over his final two years:
- 180 receptions
- 2,279 receiving yards
- 22 TDs
Now the rookie is trying to establish himself as a viable option for Aaron Rodgers. The Jets already have Garrett Wilson locked in as their clear-cut WR1 and a healthy Mike Williams profiles as a strong WR2. That leaves Corley to battle with Allen Lazard and Xavier Gipson as the other likely WR3 candidates.
The Fantasy Life projections do have Corley winning the WR3 role:
However, it'll be an offense that funnels through both Wilson and Breece Hall out of the backfield, likely leaving little for Corley and others.
In addition, head coach Robert Saleh recently came out and said that Corley has a ways to go as a route-runner. That's a bit discouraging especially for a player who played against lesser competition in college. If he can't get open in the NFL, Rodgers, who already has a reputation for not liking to throw to rookies, will look his way even less.
Finally, there's Rodgers. He himself came out and said he isn't sure if he'll be back in 2025. By the time Corley (hopefully) develops as a player, who knows what the head coach and/or QB situation will be? Corley's stock is heading in the wrong direction and dynasty managers should take note.
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