Dynasty Stock Watch: Post-Draft Risers and Fallers

With the NFL Draft officially behind us, Sam Wallace looks at a few players who saw significant shifts in their dynasty stock.

Dynasty Stock Up

Treylon Burks

The Titans made a splash early on Day 2 by selecting QB Will Levis out of Kentucky. After inexplicably falling out of the first round, Levis has the opportunity to become the heir-apparent to Ryan Tannehill.

Perhaps more surprising, Tennessee didn’t select a wideout until the final round. After sophomore WR Treylon Burks, there’s a steep drop-off to the next option. It’s possible no team has a bigger gap between their WR1 and WR2.

Elite target volume is all but assured for Burks this season.

• In six games, the rookie has three superstar-level TPRR performances
• Talent is the No. 1 factor for WRs, and the best way to understand talent is the ability to demand targets
• The first-round NFL Draft pick leads the Titans in TPRR (23%) and doesn’t have much competition for targets

The opportunity for Burks to erupt this season is right in front of him. His closest competition for targets has 906 total receiving yards in three years (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine).

Burks to the moon in 2023 and beyond.

Rachaad White

Another sophomore player survived the draft better than I expected.

The Buccaneers didn’t draft an RB and only brought in Chase Edmonds to offset the departure of Leonard Fournette.

The opportunity for Rachaad White is massive. He finished as the RB36 despite playing second-fiddle to Fournette.

If you’re like me and you enjoy playing around with small sample sizes, in the ONE game White played without Fournette, he posted:

• 14 for 64 on the ground
• 9 for 45 through the air (on nine targets)

Okay, so QB Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask) probably won’t check it down as often as Tom Brady, but it was encouraging to see White heavily utilized in a way that fits his skillset.

White hauled in 50 receptions as a rookie and had a similar catch rate as Fournette, who racked up 73 receptions.

Dec 18, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (29) runs with the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles recently had some positive things to say about White:

“We talked about him becoming a more complete back. Taking care of the football, and then with the new offense, I look for him to continue to accelerate and get better in all phases to become a three-down back.”

As our own Pete Overzet said, “'Three-down back'...three of the most beautiful words in the English language.”

The Tampa Bay offense still has playmakers, but much will depend on their QB. Regardless, White has the opportunity to handle a massive workload this season.

Lamar Jackson

One of the biggest storylines of the offseason came to a close last week as QB Lamar Jackson signed a five-year deal worth $260 million ($185 million guaranteed).

There was a wide range of outcomes for Jackson heading into 2023. We weren’t sure if he would stay in Baltimore, be traded, or simply sit out this season. Suddenly, Jackson secured the bag and has one of the best WR groups he’s ever worked with.

The Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year contract worth up to $18 million and also drafted rookie Zay Flowers from Boston College. Couple those two with promising wideout Rashod Bateman and stud TE Mark Andrews and this team is looking dangerous.

Jackson appeared in just 12 games in each of the last two seasons, so it’s easy to forget just how dominant he is for fantasy.

Since he became the full-time starter in 2019, only two QBs have averaged more PPG than Jackson.

Still only 26 years old, Jackson is firmly in the upper tier of QBs for dynasty. I would take Mahomes, Allen, and Jalen Hurts ahead of him, but I have no issue putting Jackson at No. 4.

It was a whirlwind few months for #RavensFlock, but their franchise QB is locked in and the future is bright for this potent offense.

This also helps instill confidence in the Ravens offense as a whole, making them great targets on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100. Sign up below and start drafting today!

Dynasty Stock Down

Kenneth Walker

One year after selecting RB Kenneth Walker in the second round, the Seahawks spent another second-round pick on rookie RB Zach Charbonnet. In reality, Seattle needed the depth, but it’s still unfortunate for Walker managers.

Charbonnet graded out as the RB3 (80th percentile) in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie Super Model. He’s a tier below fellow RBs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, but he’s in a spot to contribute right away.

Charbonnet also demonstrated top-end elusiveness and big-play ability in his career. His missed tackles forced rate (0.23) put him at the 73rd percentile, while 17% of his rushing attempts went for 10+ yards (69th percentile).

In his final two seasons at UCLA, Charbonnet totaled:

• 398 rushing attempts
• 2,496 rushing yards
• 61 receptions
• 518 receiving yards
• 27 total TDs

In 2022, he was second-team All-American and he had the second-highest PFF rushing grade among all RBs with 100+ carries.

These are all great things for Seattle, but not for Walker and his fantasy managers.

Prior to the NFL Draft, Walker’s dynasty ranking climbed to RB5. I assume he’ll drop a few places, but he should still be inside the top 10 based on talent and situation.

Dawson Knox

Seven months after signing TE Dawson Knox to a four-year, $53.6 million contract (with more than $31 million guaranteed), the Bills traded up and drafted rookie TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick.

That’s great for QB Josh Allen, but not for Knox.

Jan 15, 2023; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox (88) catches a touchdown pass against Miami Dolphins linebacker Jerome Baker (55) during the first half in a NFL wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Kincaid totaled 1,400 receiving yards and 16 TDs over his final two collegiate seasons. He also topped 2.0 YPRR in both of those seasons. His 2.42 mark in 2022 was second-best in the nation among TEs with at least 25 targets.

In Dwain McFarland’s Rookie Super Model, Kincaid graded out as the TE1 (90th percentile) and landed on one of the best offenses in football.

Last season, Allen was the QB9 in passing attempts (567), but Knox finished fourth in team target share (11%). Despite the massive contract and pass-heavy scheme, Knox didn’t even finish top-12 at the position. Kincaid has his work cut out for him, but Knox will struggle to remain fantasy relevant in dynasty formats.

TEs certainly take time to develop, but it’s hard not to get excited about what Kincaid can offer both the Bills and fantasy managers.