Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Four WRs To Acquire in Dynasty Leagues
As the summer marches on, I'm here to remind you that there's no offseason in dynasty fantasy football.
With attention shifting toward training camp, here are four wide receivers you should consider trading for before their values start to rebound.
Dynasty Trade Targets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR - Seahawks
It's fascinating how one year can push a talented player down draft boards. At Ohio State, Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out as a sophomore to the tune of:
- 95 receptions
- 1,606 receiving yards
- 9 TDs
That season, JSN had more receptions and receiving yards than both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. He showed he could dominate a loaded receiver room.
JSN only appeared in three games in 2022 but was the first WR drafted in 2023. He slotted in as the No. 2 WR in our Rookie WR Model.
As a rookie, JSN was clearly the third wideout for the Seahawks. Playing behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, JSN managed to earn a 75% route participation, but that was about the only highlight.
His aDOT and air yards show a player who was used near the line of scrimmage. There's hope that things could change in Year 2. And for as much as I like Lockett, he's not getting any younger.
Geno Smith had a career year in 2022 (QB5) but fell off last season (QB19). In his team preview series, Ian Hartitz noted just how efficient Smith has been since taking over:
Smith among 48 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2022-23:
- EPA per dropback: +0.084 (No. 17)
- Completion percentage over expected: +4.2% (No. 1)
- PFF pass grade: 82.2 (No. 13)
- Passer rating: 96.8 (No. 9)
- Yards per attempt: 7.4 (tied for No. 13)
As for the wideouts, Hartiz said:
The good news about buying into these WRs in fantasy land is the reality that none of Metcalf (WR20, pick 27), JSN (WR48, 82.9) or Lockett (WR51, 97.9) are all that expensive. The bad news is the trio (again) figures to eat into each other's target shares, leaving a relatively low ceiling for each.
There's ample reason to temper expectations on a true Year 2 breakout for JSN. Fantasy Life has Metcalf, JSN and Lockett all ranked modestly, which means you can get exposure to each relatively easily.
However, opportunity lies in dynasty formats. JSN's current dynasty ADP sits at WR25, which makes him a WR3. He's 22 years old, has the draft capital and is still the top-end talent we saw coming out of college.
Jordan Addison, WR - Vikings
Jordan Addition came off the board in 2023 at No. 23 overall as the fourth wideout drafted. However, he clocked in as the WR1 in our Rookie WR Model, ahead of JSN.
Despite playing alongside Justin Jefferson, Addison performed well. Jefferson missed Weeks 6-12 — in his place, Addison proved he could be a true No. 1 option.
During that stretch, Addison saw incredible usage:
- 94% route participation
- 20% TPRR
- 23% target share
- 38% air yards
The big concern now is the change at QB. Minnesota lost Kirk Cousins, signed Sam Darnold and drafted J.J. McCarthy. It's an overall downgrade, and the market reacted accordingly.
Hartitz did provide optimism on McCarthy in his Vikings team preview:
While McCarthy didn't offer a ton of elite counting numbers of volume during his three years at Michigan, he did boast some pretty enticing underlying efficiency numbers that certainly helped lead to him being a top-10 selection:
- McCarthy’s 80% adjusted completion percentage was the second-highest in his class.
- His efficiency on "classic" timing routes like slants, comebacks, curls, digs and outs from the pocket was better than any other incoming QB.
- Overall volume might be an issue, but nobody attempted more throws over the middle of the field on digs or crossers than McCarthy in 2023.
- Nobody was better on third downs and it wasn't particularly close.
This should encourage Addison managers, but patience is critical. Regardless of who starts at QB, this should be McCarthy's team eventually.
Addison carries a dynasty ADP of WR26. His value peaked at WR10 back in November but has plummeted since. Like JSN, I'm tempering expectations in redraft but am buying in dynasty. I would look to acquire now while his price is low.
Christian Watson, WR - Packers
Christian Watson has had an interesting start to his career. The No. 34 draft pick in 2022 caught seven TDs in a four-game stretch from Aaron Rodgers and then appeared in just nine games last season due to injury.
In last Friday's newsletter, Hartitz broke down the Packers wideouts:
This is evident by peeping Packers WR usage from Weeks 5-13 last season, which featured the healthiest stretch of the year for Watson, who didn’t reach a snap rate north of 50% during September and missed the team’s final five regular season games before being limited in the playoffs.
Packers WRs in Weeks 5-13:
- Doubs: 83% routes, 15% targets, 9.6 PPR points per game
- Watson: 82% routes, 19% targets, 11.4 PPR points per game
- Reed: 63% routes, 15% targets, 11.4 PPR points per game
- Wicks: 34% routes, 10% targets, 6.6 PPR points per game
During that stretch, Watson was right there with Romeo Doubs in route participation, was the leader in target share and tied with Jayden Reed in PPR.
From a different perspective, here's how the top-four wideouts compared last season.
More evidence that Watson has the tools and usage to be a top wideout.
It does sound like Watson is making progress on his hamstring injury. When healthy, he brings a size/speed combination that makes him a lethal threat on all levels on the field.
In dynasty, Watson is ranked as the No. 2 option in Green Bay behind Reed. The price of these various offense pieces is low enough that you can get cheap exposure across the board if you are looking to diversify.
Watson's current dynasty ADP sits at WR38. Less than a year ago, he was the WR18. I'm all in at that price point. He's valued as a WR4 and should be the top option for Jordan Love moving forward.
Chris Godwin, WR - Buccaneers
Chris Godwin has quickly become one of the most consistent fantasy producers.
He peaked in 2019 (WR2), but over the last six years he's never finished lower than WR31. Since 2021, he has averaged:
- 133 targets
- 95 receptions
- 1,050 receiving yards
Looking more closely, Godwin saw a significant shift in his alignment last season. Courtesy of PFF, here are his slot/wide splits since 2021.
- 2021 - 70% slot/28% wide
- 2022 - 73% slot/26% wide
- 2023 - 37% slot/61% wide
There's optimism that Godwin could experience a resurgent season as he moves back to the slot. An NFC South reporter recently said:
The Bucs are on their third offensive coordinator in three years, but of all the wrinkles ahead in Liam Coen's new scheme, one that has generated real excitement is that receiver Chris Godwin will be primarily moving back into the slot — into the role Cooper Kupp played in the same offense when Coen was with the Rams.
It's hard not to get excited about Godwin having a Kupp-like season with the current system. Tampa Bay locked up both Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans and should be in contention in a relatively weak division.
Evans is still the unquestioned WR1, but Godwin has more than earned a significant role.
The metrics lean Evans, but if you look closely their TPRR and target shares are almost identical. Evans might dominate down the field, but Godwin can dominate the middle of the field as well as anyone.
Godwin is the dynasty WR43. He's 28 years old, so I can somewhat understand the decrease in value. But this feels both premature and disrespectful. If I can secure Godwin as my WR4, I'm all in every time.