Jalen McMillan Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Jalen McMillan Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 205.5 overall (WR86), rookie WR18
• WR Rookie Super Model: 37th percentile

I was intent on studying the primary parts of Washington’s passing game. Michael Penix and Rome Odunze are (essentially) locks to get first-round draft capital, and Ja’Lynn Polk isn’t too far behind in value. But then this other guy caught my eye.

Jalen McMillan’s collegiate career (while smattered with highlights in the CFB playoffs) didn’t end as intended. A knee injury sidelined him for multiple weeks, so box score scouts may look at his 331 total yards in 2023 and assume that he fell out of favor.

Luckily, the Fresno native recovered in time to attend the NFL Combine and regained favor among front-office personnel with above-average measurables. However, McMillan does have a few hurdles to overcome. He has just one season of high-end production, and two other teammates in the same draft class dominated in Washington’s offense.

Their success relegated McMillan to a role-player position on the interior. However, there are aspects of his game that should keep us interested in his landing spot. Let’s take a closer look at the Huskies’ slot man.

Pros and Cons of Jalen McMillan

Pros

Produced alongside NFL-caliber talent

Since McMillan spent the majority of 2023 nursing an injury, let’s roll the clock back to 2022.

Penix, Odunze, and Polk were all there, and each played most of the year. But the pecking order wasn’t the same as we saw the following season in 2023. McMillan was everywhere in 2022.

McMillan might have a slender frame, but he put his body on the line as if he were 10 lbs. heavier. In 2022, the 197 lb. WR tied for the team lead for Washington in contested targets (14).

Simultaneously, McMillan was also at the top of the Huskies’ WR corps in first downs generated (49). In short, he almost literally gave Odunze a run for his money for the top WR spot. Of course, McMillan’s luck ran out the following season. As I mentioned, the knee injury he sustained against Michigan State in Week 3 kept him off the field. However, through the first three games last year, the same usage trends existed between McMillan and Odunze.

• Targets per route run (TPRR): 0.30 (McMillan) vs. 0.28 (Odunze)
• Yards per route run (YPRR): 3.86 vs. 3.77
• Yards after catch per reception (YAC/R): 7.2 vs. 4.8
• Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA): 2.7 vs. 3.7

So while McMillan’s career indicates that he fell behind superior talent, he hung with the best on his squad, at least for a time.

Reliable in short to intermediate areas of the field

McMillan doesn’t have elite long speed, nor does he have the burst to win downfield consistently. It’s part of why his snap rates from the slot were above 90.0% throughout his final two seasons.

Regardless, he was able to demonstrate enough body control to show that he has a translatable skillset.

In the short and intermediate areas of the field, McMillan was a maven. This type of limited workload, only primarily working under 20 yards of depth, narrows a player’s potential.

But the right landing spot and development path can still turn a would-be role-player like McMillan into a reliable No. 2 WR. As Mr. Waldman underscores, McMillan can win through fluid movements and vision. Overpowering athleticism can be bait for fantasy managers (and are worthy traits on their own), but savvy route-runners are deadly with the ball in their hands, and McMillan earned that descriptor during his breakout season.

Only Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Ladd McConkey generated more first downs on a per-target basis than McMillan. Washington’s supposed No. 3 also had a higher missed tackles forced rate (0.23) than Odunze, their supposed No. 1 WR (0.15).

Teams using more 11 personnel in obvious passing situations would benefit from a player like McMillan. He just needs to develop in other areas to ensure a more productive career in the NFL.

Cons

Won't win with physicality

Let me start with two assumptions.

1. If you primarily play in the slot, WRs will face smaller or weaker coverage.
2. From an interior alignment, WRs have more consistent access to YAC opportunities.

From my assumptions, intuitively, inside WRs have a relatively easier job. They’ll need to fight through traffic but exert control at the catch point. However, McMillan couldn’t effectively manage against defenders in college. Based on my first assumption, McMillan should've posted above-average efficiency numbers against man coverage, and he did. With a 2.74 YPRR, he was sixth-best in this class. But he didn’t see the same caliber of corners that Odunze (81.1% snap rate on the outside) saw, not to mention Odunze nearly doubled McMillan’s YPRR against man coverage (4.16). Plus, McMillan struggled against zone coverage with the third-worst average at only 2.03 YPRR.

To me, the zone coverage metric stuck out the most. NFL teams are targeting the middle of the field more to create explosives. Three-WR sets can force defenses out of base coverage to account for the extra pass-catcher. McMillan’s deficiencies here will give most front offices some pause, and his ability to create after the catch is part of his talent gap in this area. While drops aren’t a sticky stat, McMillan had issues while at Washington. He went from being at the forefront of the team in contested looks in 2022 to just one similar opportunity last season.

And the drops persisted. Combined with a lacking ability to fight through defenses, McMillan may find it difficult to earn consistent playing time as a rookie unless/until he improves at his craft.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Jalen McMillan

McMillan checks most of the boxes for a rotational WR, as he earned volume with other NFL-caliber WRs at his side. Even as a slot man, McMillan churned out first downs and slid by enough defenders to keep Washington’s offense moving. He could turn an intermediate catch into a long gain with ease.

However, this last highlight demonstrates part of the confusion when evaluating McMillan. In 2020 and 2021, he functioned as a perimeter WR with over 90.0% of his snaps coming from the outside.

But as soon as Puka Nacua left and Odunze stepped up, McMillan’s alignment shifted to the inside. He fought for work but couldn’t retain the No. 1 WR role after an injury. As a result, his mock draft value has him as a mid-Day 2 pick. McMillan belongs in a No. 3 WR role at the next level with some room to grow. Even if whichever NFL team drafts him does primarily use two-WR sets, McMillan could (and should) learn behind established veterans to create better habits at the catch point and learn how to work through coverage. With time to grow, McMillan could ascend to become a mid-range fantasy WR2 on a potent offense.