Johnny Wilson Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Johnny Wilson Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 230.8 overall (WR96), rookie WR20

Johnny Wilson spent two years at Arizona State before transferring to Florida State for his final two seasons. And while he was the leading receiver for FSU in 2022, Wilson took a backseat to fellow draft prospect Keon Coleman in 2023.

There was some discussion in the scouting community about whether or not Wilson should consider switching positions to TE due to his size, but that doesn’t seem likely, and the track record of WRs who've attempted to do that isn’t great. Wilson should be able to stick in the NFL as a WR, and he's projected to have reasonable draft capital.

After a somewhat disappointing 2023 campaign, Wilson started building momentum at the Senior Bowl. He also then tested very well at the NFL Combine, which should solidify his status as a late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Wilson grades out as the WR22 in this class in Dwain McFarland's rookie WR super model, and that feels like the right range for him. He belongs in a large tier of WR prospects with some upside but also plenty of red flags for NFL teams and fantasy managers alike. 

Pros and Cons of Johnny Wilson

Pros

Size

You can’t coach size, and Wilson has that in spades. He measured in at the NFL Combine at 6’6 and 231 lbs., which topped both categories for the WR position. In fact, his huge frame was the main reason for the speculation that Wilson could switch positions to TE.

Wilson's size-adjusted athletic measurables were also extremely strong. His 4.52 40-yard dash, 37” vertical, and 10’8 broad jump all measure very well given Wilson's height and weight.

In an era where the NFL is trending towards smaller WRs, Wilson quite literally stands out. As a result, his size can create mismatch opportunities against defensive backs and also help him provide value to his future NFL team as a run blocker.

On top of that, I love how smooth Wilson is at his size, and his footwork is quite polished for a 230 lb. WR. That bodes well for his ability to transition to the NFL level.

Efficiency

Although Wilson’s college stats weren’t all that impressive, his per-route and per-target metrics are much better. He posted 2.42 and 3.36 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and he averaged over 15 yards per reception (YPR) in each of his final two seasons.

Wilson's mark of 3.36 YPRR in 2022 was truly elite, ranking fifth among all WRs with at least 30 targets across all of college football that year. His 20.9 YPR was also ninth in the nation, so Wilson's 2022 campaign really put him on the map.

Nov 18, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Johnny Wilson (14) catches the ball during the warm ups against the North Alabama Lions at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

That level of efficiency puts him in high company in this draft class, but it will be an entirely different challenge for Wilson to remain this efficient if he were to see greater volume. It’s worth noting that Wilson didn’t score quite as well in adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt, which is the preferred metric in the WR super model.

This is where evaluating college programs can get tricky, as college coaches don’t always utilize their best players enough or in the right way. That may have been the case for Wilson, as he dominated when he was on the field even though he didn’t play a ton of snaps. At the same time, players have to earn playing time, so we can’t necessarily chalk it all up to coaching.

Cons

Age

Wilson is already 23 years old, and his production profile isn’t that exciting for a four-year college player. He had essentially one good season, and that 2022 season doesn’t even stack up that well compared to the best seasons of other WR prospects in this 2024 class.

It generally isn’t a great sign when a player’s only real production came in their age 22 season. It also isn’t great when that player saw a decline in production when a younger teammate overtook him. That was the case for Wilson when Keon Coleman transferred to FSU for the 2023 season. Given that Wilson is more than two full years older than Coleman, it's alarming that Wilson's production dipped across all categories with the added target competition last year.

Age is important when projecting college production to the NFL level, but it should also be taken with a grain of salt in this era of transfers and extended eligibility due to the pandemic. I’ve been more willing to discount age for players who put up dominant seasons in college, but Wilson doesn’t fit that category, so it remains a concern.

Contested catch and TD rates

Despite his imposing frame, Wilson wasn’t great in contested catch situations and never posted a high TD rate. These are usually areas where big-bodied WRs stand out, and yet, Wilson is below average in both metrics. He recorded a career contested catch rate of just 42.6% and only had eight career TDs in 31 games. When we factor in his two multi-TD games, he only scored in six separate contests.

This is not what I expected when analyzing a 6’6 prospect with a 37” vertical. In theory, Wilson has significant TD upside due to his potential as a red-zone weapon, but the lack of scoring in college is a red flag for projecting that to happen at the pro level. TDs are volatile, but it would've been nice to have seen Wilson post at least one positive outlier season in college.

Sep 11, 2021; Tempe, Arizona, USA; UNLV Rebels defensive back Nohl Williams (2) intercepts a pass intended for Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Johnny Wilson (14) during the first half at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

That said, after having dug deeper into Wilson’s profile, there was a mitigating factor. Both the film and the numbers suggest that Wilson's college QB, Jordan Travis, wasn’t great at putting throws in favorable spots for his WRs. Coleman’s contested catch rate plummeted as well after he transferred to FSU in 2023, and I saw plenty of underthrows from Travis in general.

Additionally, while Wilson wasn’t consistent in those contested catch situations, he did flash a number of highlight reel catches. If he can continue to refine his game and get better QB play in the NFL, we could see Wilson's contested catch rate improve. 

Fantasy Football Outlook for Johnny Wilson

Wilson is unlikely to be relevant for fantasy football in 2024. If he ends up going late on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, he could be a reasonable last-round dart throw in best ball, but most fantasy managers will be assessing his value from a dynasty perspective.

In my opinion, Wilson profiles as the kind of WR who can stick in the NFL for a decently long career but won’t be fantasy-relevant for most of that time. I could see a couple of seasons where his scoring spikes due to TDs, but Wilson would likely become a sell-high candidate even if that were to occur.

It’s always nice when a player has at least one defining trait, though, and Wilson has that with his size and wingspan. Still, he didn’t leverage those traits in the way we would expect in college, so Wilson will need to work on his ball skills and contested catch ability to truly hit his ceiling as an NFL WR. There's a clear path to fantasy relevance for Wilson if he can do that.