Keon Coleman Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Keon Coleman Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 192.7 Overall (WR81), rookie WR15
• WR Super Model percentile: 50%

What would you say you do here?

It’s a question no employee wants to answer, and the situation becomes similarly awkward when posing a similar query to a prospect during their evaluation. The tape should tell us. Or, the stats should give us an idea. However, I find my usual tools in conflict with each other when looking at Keon Coleman. 

For instance, let’s look at his athletic profile.

At 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds, the Florida State product has the build of an X-receiver. With that frame, you’d think he’d be able to turn 50-50 balls into 60-40 propositions for his QB. But out of Coleman’s class, his 43.4% contested catch rate puts him at WR10.

OK, but his vertical and broad jump measurables indicate he has some burst. Perhaps Coleman was a menace after the catch. Nope. Well, at least he wasn’t creative relative to his ’24 peers. His career YAC per reception of 5.2 yards ranks ninth. 

All right, well, stats can’t always capture route technicians (they can, but roll with me). Maybe a deficient QB and uncreative offense held him back. But, even if this were true, Coleman’s success rate per route would’ve sparked more confidence after looking at his 2023 tape. 

However, Coleman maintained healthy target shares of 22.9% and 24.9% as a starter. He averaged 32.6% of his offense’s air yards and had the seventh-most TDs in his final college season (which came after transferring schools). I must be missing something here. So, let’s break down Coleman’s profile and see what the incoming rookie can bring to the NFL.

Pros and Cons of Keon Coleman

Pros

Increased Volume Despite Switching Teams

WRs consistently earning significant volume should have our surface-level interest. If more of their traits stand out, we do a deeper dive. In Coleman’s case, he displayed an above-average skill set in getting the ball thrown his way.

Coleman didn’t even have the ball thrown his way on every dropback, but you could see the fundamentals. Defenders would give him a ten-yard pre-snap cushion, and Coleman could still make a break on an out or comeback route to create separation. Or (at the 0:43 mark), the Seminoles’ WR could instantly glide inside on a long catch-and-run play.

You can see the compelling vision for his collegiate coaches (and future NFL coaches, too). More opportunities for a guy like Coleman are chances for him to learn. However, Coleman transferred from Michigan State to Florida State for his final season. And typically, we’d expect a drop in targets after a change in scenery. And yet, a separate playcaller and QB saw fit to keep throwing the ball Coleman’s way.

Taking up a larger share of their offense’s volume is what good receivers do. But, entering a program and taking over is a separate ability. Two other prominent WRs in the ’24 class entered the transfer portal prior to the start of the 2023 season. And Coleman was the only one who didn’t seem affected by the switch.

• Adonai Mitchell (target share): 8.7% (2022- Georgia), 19.3% (2023 – Texas)
• Devontez Walker: 29.7% (2022 – Kent State), 24.2% (2023 – North Carolina)

Coleman was a top option in his offense wherever he went. Whether it be for his route versatility or red-zone prowess, the Spartan-turned-Seminole can create gravity at every level of the field.

Impact Receiver

Coleman averaged 2.07 and 1.74 YPRR as a starter. While not a fair comparison, Marvin Harrison Jr. topped 3.0 YPRR over his last two seasons. In other words, Coleman is inconsistent. But he somehow consistently made big plays.

Some guys affect their offense by moving the chains. Admittedly, it’s a much more translatable asset to the NFL. Coleman’s impact was more volatile. Winning fades against corners or gaining separation for a touchdown doesn’t always work at the pro level. Regardless, it’s still a positive shift for your offense. So, I took contested catches and touchdowns and converted them into a rate stat based on total targets. Unsurprisingly, Coleman’s name floats toward the top of the class in this regard.

Fortunately, Coleman didn’t come up in big situations using his athleticism alone. At FSU, the big-bodied receiver could use his inside leverage against DBs to work back out for easy conversions. Accordingly, when looking at Coleman’s career RYPTPA, he edges closer to the middle of the class than falling behind it.

Because Coleman produced (relative to his target rate) for two consecutive seasons, we can place more confidence in his body of work than in his classmates'. And it’s not like Coleman didn’t see his fair share of high-end coverage. So even as a boom-bust WR3 with a plan for development, Coleman’s physical gifts should be worth the investment to any squad.

Cons

Fell Behind NFL Talent

Typically, WRs that can consistently secure volume within an offense are worth our attention. But who they’re taking targets away from matters. For example, Garrett Wilson earning 102 targets in his final season at OSU is great. However, factoring in that he played alongside Chris Olave (101 targets) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (96) puts Wilson in an even better light.

It’s not just about talent evaluation when contextualizing a prospect’s opportunity in college. We can also project ranges of outcomes. Rookies who played behind other teammates have a lesser chance of turning into target hogs in the NFL. And Coleman played alongside prominent talent at both stops of his collegiate career.

Jayden Reed’s 64.7% contested catch rate in his final season at MSU ranked seventh out of all FBS WRs. Clearly, the Packers’ coaching staff took note of his versatility and made sure they got the ball in his hands however they could, too. Unfortunately for Coleman, his WR2 status didn’t stay in Michigan.

Not only did Johnny Wilson earn more targets, but Wilson’s 2.42 YPRR in ’23 is better than any single-season mark for Coleman. Wilson could work all three levels of the field with more consistency than Coleman. With him having to take a back seat at both stops, teams may see his deficiencies requiring more time to develop, thus limiting his playing time.

Became Less Efficient

I’ll contradict myself from earlier by saying the impact plays don’t matter. 

Well, let me rephrase. 

The process of creating those impact plays matters more than the results. Depending on size or leverage, any big-bodied WR can (read: should) win a contested catch. But you can’t always “out-athlete” another professional athlete. Along that same line of thinking, Coleman sometimes relied more on his physical traits to get the job done.

Or conversely, he didn’t use his size to his advantage to fight through contact for more yards.

It’s something of a head-scratcher for a WR with his build. And it’s not like he has the speed to compensate. Regardless, his inability to properly wield his frame contributed to his inconsistent play. As a result, Coleman’s efficiency plummeted after his move to Florida State.

Even worse, it’s not like Coleman struggled against just man/press coverage.

His career efficiency numbers against man or zone put him in the bottom tier for the class.

Physical corners eliminated almost any production after the catch. Coleman couldn’t even find solace moving to the interior at times. He’ll need to work on his craft to convince teams he can be part of a starting rotation in his rookie year.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Keon Coleman

You can describe Coleman in a single word: raw.

His lowlights indicate the need for a closer look at the details of being a WR. While he’s run a diverse route tree, the breaks and timing aren’t polished. And yet, his highlights have already made me forget most of the negatives.

Coleman would benefit from a team with multiple veterans already in place. He could highlight his penchant for creating explosives while learning the finer points of the game. Coincidentally, his declining mock draft value echoes my sentiment.

In a class filled with talent at WR, there’s no need to reach for Coleman in the first two rounds.

However, if a contending team wants to add him to their receiving corps, his dynasty outlook will significantly improve.